双语时事系列62:人工智能助阵赌场

2009-10-23 00:00:00来源：网络

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双语时事：赌场获胜？人工智能或许可以助阵

A simulated neural network is able to predict the bets and wins/losses of gamblers.

模拟神经网络能预测赌博者的注额以及输赢

Artificial Intelligence Predicts Gambling Behavior

Artificial intelligence works to replicate our human mind (and a lot more). So scientists need to know how humans make their next moves. And while predicting behavior is inherent in AI, prediction itself is not often an end goal for AI.

But recently scientists have created a system that can predict the bets of gamblers, with an accuracy bordering on spooky. Their research was published in the Journal of Gambling Studies.

Researchers used data from a total of 675 online games from six Texas Holdem gamblers. They built a mathematically simulated neural network based on the players’ initial several plays. Meaning the network learns and rewires itself based on guesses that either turn out to be right or wrong. This method of AI is called propagation of error.

They found that their neural model could predict each of the six gamblers bet amounts with an accuracy to three decimal places of the dollar. Additionally they could also predict with similar accuracy their cumulative wins/losses.

So based on their first few games, the gamblers subsequent behavior, strategy and ultimately their wins and losses, was consistently predictable.

Proves, yet again, sadly there’s no magic in gambling.

人工智能预测赌博行为

人工智能复制我们人类的思想（还有其它很多的东西）。因此科学家们需要知道人们如何采取下一步行动。虽然对行为的预测是人工智能所固有的，但是预测本身通常不是人工智能的终极目标。

但是最近科学家们创造出了一种系统，该系统能预测赌博者的赌注，其准确性令人惊异。他们的研究发表在《博彩研究》（Gambling Studies）上。

研究者们的数据来自6个德克萨斯扑克（Texas Holdem）赌博者的总共675个在线游戏。他们根据扑克玩家开始几次的玩法建立一个数学模拟神经网络。这意味着该网络根据猜测（这种猜测要么是正确的，要么是错误的）来自我学习和自我更新。这种人工智能的方法称为误差传播。

他们发现他们的神经模型能预测到这六个赌博者中每个人的赌注的数量，其精确度达到了小数点后三位。另外，他们还能预测赌博者们的累积输赢，精确度同样这样高。

因此根据赌博者们的头几次玩法，赌博者们随后的行为、策略以及最终的输赢都是可以预测的。

让人感到沮丧的是，这再一次证明，在赌博中根本就没有奇迹。

Vocabulary:

Simulate：模拟

Neural：神经的