畅想十年后的中国

　　"We interrupt live coverage of the Mars mission launch from Dongfeng to go to Beijing for the Oscars ceremony. As viewers are no doubt aware, this is the first time the award ceremony has been held outside the US. Nominated for best films for 2024, both sequels to the 2014 films, were American Bustle and Newton's Law. But the award-winning film for 2024 is Dalian, a story based around an oil executive and his family. It claims to put the oil into romantic turmoil. Also an Oscar first this year is that robots, instead of humans, have been nominated best actor and actress. Three of the five nominated robots, and two supporting robots, were made in China. Film formats have changed from 10 years ago and have lost the plot, literally, as viewers can select their own endings. The Oscars have taken this into account, and also for the first time, are allowing viewers to select their favorites."

　　Not entirely beyond the realms of plausibility 10 years from now. There is little future in prediction, except for chefs making, and waiters serving, large doses of humble pie. But at the risk of indigestion, and of attracting a waiter's attention, 2024 could have some of the following ingredients.

　　We won't have cash. Wallets and purses will be quaint reminders of the past that we can show bemused children. No need for notes and coins, as a bank's logo says: "Cash? It's a spent force".

　　All financial transactions will be done through smartphones, apps and embedded microchips in our wrists. No queueing to pay at tills. We pick, we go, we get scanned, money deducted.

　　Meanwhile back on the ranch, farms have also undergone profound change. Most of the megacities in China are self-sustaining with farms now located vertically floor on floor. Our food is grown in skyscrapers, energized by solar and wind power.

　　Life expectancy has soared and reaching 100, with full faculties, is a realistic goal. Cycling has witnessed a resurgence and China will establish the world's first fully green city, with no fossil fuel used for transport or heating and only bikes allowed on the road. Some cities are considering banning all vehicles, except for essential public services.

　　The economy is the world's biggest, but that was expected 10 years ago. What was not expected was the massive change in education. A new international test for 18 and 19-year-olds has been agreed by the world's leading universities, of which three of the top eight are in China. The new test, mandatory for those going to university, asks questions on a global curriculum based on food, language, computing, math and the IHSK. This is the international version of the HSK, a language exam for foreigners in China, and 15 million students will sit it across the globe in 2024.

　　Passing IHSK grade 4 is a prerequisite for most jobs, outside of China. Global employers demand that their workers know the language of their main customers. The top selling item of 2024? An earpiece that provides simultaneous language translation (IHSK students are not allowed to wear one for their test).

　　An estimated 921 million people, or 65 percent of China's population, will live in cities in 2024, which is about 2.5 times the size of the US population.

　　Driver-less cars are nothing new, but what is really grabbing the public's imagination are transport drones, that can accommodate up to 20 passengers, and fly in sky corridors at two-minute intervals. The initial corridor was built between Beijing and Shanghai.

　　In economic affairs, currency parity parties are being organized in Washington and Beijing as the WTO supported China's claim that the US was guilty of currency manipulation. The dollar has fallen 28 percent in 12 months.

　　Not all the changes will be on Earth. About 10,000 people have already gone into near orbit as space tourists, and some have already spent two weeks on China's moon base. TV sets have gone, replaced by special spectacles which can be adjusted for old-fashioned cinema, living room or rainforest setting. This means that viewers, apart from choosing the ending, can select the backdrop, for their viewing pleasure. The Spring Gala for 2024 was held in the US, part of the global TV rights package that saw the Oscars in Beijing.

　　The waiter is hovering.

　　"And how exactly would you like your humble pie, sir? Possibly with a side dish of apologetic vegetables or with a glass of wine. May I suggest a suitably embarrassed red."

　　“感谢朋友们关注酒泉卫星发射中心火星探测器发射的实况转播，现在我们将画面转向北京，关注奥斯卡典礼。观众们不要感到惊讶，这是奥斯卡颁奖典礼第一次走出美国。2024年度最佳影片的桂冠由《大连》摘得，影片讲述了一个石油大亨和他的家庭的故事，片中事业与爱情的主题相互杂糅。影片《美国骗局》和《牛顿定律》获得本届奥斯卡最佳影片的提名，两部影片都是2014年上映影片的续集。值得一提的是，本届奥斯卡中提名的最佳男女演员中出现了机器人。而且，男女主角提名中，五个机器人中有三个是中国制造，男女配角提名中，有两个机器人出自中国。如今，电影已经不同于十年前了，人们可以设计情节，自由选定故事结局，奥斯卡也首次将此纳入考虑，允许观众选择自己喜爱的故事结尾。”这也许就是十年后的生活景象。

　　正在饭馆的我其实也没什么可想的，除了厨师的做法，服务员的态度和肉饼的大小。不过我还是冒着消化不良的风险，不理会服务员，畅想2024。

　　经济领域变革

　　在经济事务中，世界贸易组织同意中国看法，认为美元利用货币垄断操纵货币，所以宣布货币平价将由中国和美国共同决定。消息一出，美元在12个月内跌了28个百分点。

　　此外，交易方式发生改变，纸币和硬币都已成过往，钱包成为了“古董”，只是有时拿出来给小孩看看，银行甚至打出口号：现金已经过时!所有的金融交易将会在手机应用和手腕上的嵌入式芯片上完成，人们也不需要在收银台前排队，只要通过扫描就能完成交易，带走物品。

　　城市环境变化

　　到2024年，中国将有9.21亿人居住在城市，占国家总人口的65%，这一数字是美国人口的2.5倍。

　　无人驾驶的汽车已司空见惯，真正新鲜的将是无人驾驶的飞机。机可容纳20名乘客，在空中通道中飞行，两家飞机间间隔2分钟。第一个空中通道是已建成的北京上海航线。

　　农民的生活也发生了改变，中国的大城市将应用垂直农业，整个城市将实现农业自给自足。农民将农产品一层层种植在高楼大厦中，充分利用太阳能、风能等能源。

　　预期寿命延长

　　预期寿命将达100岁，而且人们完全有能力活到100岁。在中国自行车将再一次成为主流，中国将建立世界上第一个“环保城市”，路面仅允许自行车通行，交通和取暖都不准使用化石燃料。此外，一些城市将考虑仅保留公共交通，禁止其他车辆通行。

　　教育模式改变

　　人们在十年前已预测中国将成为世界第一大经济体，然而却为考虑到教育领域的变化。世界顶级的八所大学认定一项新测验测试高中毕业生，中国有三所大学参与其中。报考大学的高中毕业生必须参加测试，测试内容为食品、语言、计算机、数学、国际汉语等诸多内容，国际汉语测试是汉语水平测试的国际版，原本的考试针对境内的母语非汉语人士，而现在的国际版将覆盖全球，2024年，世界将有1500万人参加测试。国际汉语水平四级将成为境外多数工作的求职硬指标，因为雇主希望自己的员工能够了解他们主要消费者使用的语言。也许到2024年最畅销的单品将是同声传译耳机，将所有语言译成汉语。(不过，参加国际汉语水平测试时可不能携带。)

　　改变的不仅仅发生在地球上。2024年，大约有一万人参加了太空旅游，去过最近的太空轨道，甚至有人在中国的月球基地呆上2周。电视机也渐渐淡出人们的视野，取而代之的一种特殊的眼镜，能够模拟电影院、家中客厅和雨林的背景。也就是说，观众不仅可以根据自己的喜好选择结局还能够选择背景幕布。也许那时候2024春节联欢晚会在美国举办，一些国家希望获得中国举办的奥斯卡典礼的转播权。

　　服务员犹豫地问道：“先生，除了肉饼需要一些佐餐吗?加些蔬菜或是来点酒?要不来杯红葡萄酒?”