财政部长楼继伟谈财政改革

　　Every year after the "two sessions", CEOs of multinational corporations and academics from international organizations gather at Beijing's Diaoyutai Guesthouse, where they put their fingers on the pulse of China's policy orientation.

　　Among the Chinese officials, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei perhaps is one of the best communicators.

　　Intellectual, outspoken and relaxed, the reform-minded minister has a style that contrasts starkly with that of his peers. One aspect of this is that he usually speaks extemporaneously and rarely reads from a script.

　　At this year's China Development Forum at the Diaoyutai Guesthouse on March 23, Lou told two stories: One was about China's reform history, and the other touched on Los Angeles' struggle with smog.

　　Lou told his audience of foreign CEOs and academics that China was faced with a dilemma of "easing top-down economic control" and "tightening control".

　　Once Beijing loosened the economic control that aimed to stimulate the dynamics of local government and the market, disorder emerged, marked by rising inflation and rampant speculation. Threatened by the chaos, Beijing tightened its grip on the economy but, as a result, the economy fell into stagnation.

　　"In China, we call this a vicious cycle of fangluan shousi (chaos after easing and death after tightening). It occurred more than 10 times in history. Will this time be different? I think the possibility of fangluan shousi happening again is very low," Lou said.

　　Lou explained that China has come a long way from its centrally planned economy. Now, more than 98 percent of prices have been liberalized.

　　He admitted that the government still holds much of the power that is supposed to belong to the market. The central task of the new reforms is to redefine the relationship between government and the market.

　　To achieve this end, Lou said, one key task is to distribute power among different levels of government. The backdrop to his comments is the fact that many fiscal experts have remarked that China's local governments are underfunded and can't complete the mounting economic and social tasks. In fact, they shoulder 85 percent of the spending responsibility but get less than 50 percent of the revenue. Although much of the gap is addressed by the central government's transfer payment system, local governments are still pressured to lobby for more funds or to raise debt.

　　Lou, however, presented an alternative. Rather than distributing a larger piece of the total revenue to local governments, he said it is more important to carve up administrative authority among varying levels of government. This way, the different levels of government receive different shares of money.

　　This led to Lou's second story. Los Angeles' painful experience in tackling the pollution problem was not because of how many cars the city produced or how many power plants the city housed. It was because automobiles from other cities and power stations in other places polluted Los Angeles. The realization of this spawned the federal Environmental Protection Agency.

　　Lou said this was a typical example of "externalities", according to economic textbooks, which is why some power should remain with provincial or national governments to address the "externalities" that county-level governments cannot enforce. He hinted that a clear stipulation of responsibility is a priority for the coming fiscal reforms.

　　Foreigners I spoke with remarked that is why they like him, because Lou not only talks about what the government will do but also the consideration and rationale behind it. And he uses terms they can identify with.

　　Lou also showed he is not the type of official to only embrace popular ideas.

　　Asked by Harvard economics professor Martin Feldstein about China's rebalancing, he said he discounts the popular notion that China should significantly boost the share of consumption in its economy.

　　"Without doubt we should increase consumption. But I wonder whether it has been overstated. We still have to maintain a relatively high savings ratio that then can be transferred to investments. Chinese society is aging fast, and we won't wish to see 10 years later that consumption kept rising while investment became insufficient," he said.

　　He was challenged by Liu Chuanzhi, founder of Lenovo Group and an iconic figure to China's entrepreneurs, who said that for many years, the growth of fiscal revenue beat GDP, while GDP growth beat household income.

　　"If it continues, I think China will never become an economy that is driven by domestic demand," said Liu, who received a round of applause.

　　Lou replied, "I would be only too happy if what you said is true." Pausing for a second, he added, "There is no such thing."

　　His words were punctuated by applause, too.

　　每年在“两会”之后，跨国公司的执行总裁们和国际组织的学者们会相聚在北京钓鱼台国宾馆，讨论中国政策的走向。

　　在中国官员中，财政部长楼继伟或许是最擅长沟通之道的一位。

　　这位一心想要改革的部长，机智，坦率而且随和，他做事的风格和其同辈人有很大的反差，其中的一方面就是他讲话时常常现场发挥，很少念稿。

　　今年3月23号在钓鱼台国宾馆举行的中国发展高层论坛上，楼讲了两个故事：一个是关于中国的改革历史，另一个是洛杉矶雾霾的治理。

　　楼告诉他的这些听众，中国面临着一个尴尬的处境，那就是“自上而下宽松的经济控制”和“过紧的控制”。

　　一旦北京为了刺激地方政府和市场的活力而放松经济控制的话，市场马上就会出现混乱，出现通货膨胀和猖獗的投机行为。为避免混乱，北京就加强其经济控制，但结果又会导致经济低迷。

　　楼说：“在中国，我们称之为‘放乱收死’(一旦放松就出现混乱，一加强控制就没有活力)，这是一个恶性循环。在中国经济历史上，出现过不下10次。这次会不会呢? 我觉得再一次出现这种循环的可能性非常小。”

　　楼解释说，过去，中国在中央计划经济下走了很长一段路，现在98%以上的价格已经放开了。

　　他承认政府仍然握有很大一部分属于市场的权利。新改革的中心任务是重新定义政府和市场之间的关系。

　　楼说，为了达到这个目的，其中很重要的一个任务就是放权给不同级别的政府。他的依据是中国的地方政府缺少资金，不能完成日益剧增的经济和社会方面的任务。事实上，他们肩负着85%的开支压力，接受的税收却低于50%。尽管有中央政府的转移支付系统来填补大部分的差距，地方政府仍然有很大压力，得去游说资金或者增加债务。

　　然而，楼提供了一个折中的办法。与其向地方政府拨付资金，不如加大各级政府的行政自主权。这样一来，各级政府就会得到不同份额的资金。

　　这引出了楼的第二个故事。洛杉矶政府在处理污染问题上有过惨痛的经历，洛杉矶的污染问题并不是因为这个城市生产了多少辆车或者有多少个发电厂，而是由外来的摩托车和别处的发电厂造成。这个问题的发现促成联邦环境保护署的诞生。

　　楼说，这是一个“外部效应”的典型例子，根据经济参考书，这就是为什么一些权力应该保留在省级政府或者国家政府，因为县级政府没能力处理‘外部效应’。他示意即将到来的财政改革，重中之重是要有明确的责任划分。

　　和我交流的外国人说这就是为什么他们喜欢楼的原因，因为他不仅谈了政府将做什么，而且还有其考虑的因素和根据，并且用词通俗易懂。

　　楼也表现出他不是那种只迎合主流意识的政府官员。

　　在被哈佛经济学教授马丁·费尔德斯坦 (Martin Feldstein)问到中国的资金调整组合问题时，楼说对于中国应大力刺激消费以带动经济发展这种流行的想法，他不看好。

　　他说：“毫无疑问，我们应该加大消费。但是，我怀疑是否已经过度。我们仍需要维持相对高的储蓄率，以便能有资金用来投资。中国社会老龄化的速度很快，我们总不希望看到10年以后，消费能力持续走高但是投资能力却不充足。”

　　联想集团创始人柳传志，这个中国企业家的标志性人物也向楼继伟发问，他说：“多年来，财政税收增长比GDP快，GDP增长比家庭收入快。如果继续这样下去，我认为中国不可能有个以内需带动发展的经济体。” 柳的话引来一片掌声。

　　楼回应说，“如果你说的是对的，那我再高兴不过了。”他停顿了一下，补充说，“这种情况不会发生。”

　　他的话同样引来了掌声。