两大领导手中的中国未来

两大领导手中的中国未来

Fate of Two Chiefs Gives Clues on China

　　BEIJING—The Communist Party's inner debate about China's future won't be on public view at the National People's Congress next week, but is encapsulated in the appearance of two provincial leaders, both candidates for promotion to the party's top body in the autumn, who represent contrasting development paths.

　　The roughly 3,000 delegates to the 10-day annual meeting of the country's rubber stamp parliament, China's last big political set-piece before a once-a-decade leadership change, will likely avoid public discussion about who will join the new leadership, and what economic growth model they might favor.

　　But private conversations among participants are likely to revolve around those two issues, and around the two provincial party chiefs.

　　One is Bo Xilai of the southwestern megacity of Chongqing, who champions the strong hand of the state in the economy and a revival of a Maoist spirit of collectivism. The other is Wang Yang of the export-oriented southern province of Guangdong, who advocates a smaller role for the government, making more room for private enterprise and civil society.

　　Mr. Bo's star appears to be waning since a scandal involving his former police chief surfaced last month. Mr. Wang, however, recently won plaudits for his handling of a village revolt in a province that many had expected to be crushed with force.

　　The official highlights of the NPC are supposed to be Premier Wen Jiabao's annual government work report, to be delivered on Monday along with the budget for 2012, and his annual press conference, usually on the final day of the meeting.

　　The meeting should help clarify the government's policy agenda for the year: modest easing to support growth with fiscal spending tilted toward "livelihood" areas including social housing, according to Wang Tao, China economist at UBS.

　　"We expect regional development and urbanization, industrial upgrading, fostering small and medium enterprise development to be some of the main themes," she wrote in a research note.

　　Mr. Wen is expected to make another appeal for economic and political restructuring, but he is now widely regarded as a lame duck as he is entering his final year as premier and his repeated calls for reform have failed to translate into policy over the last two years.

　　So NPC participants, who include business leaders, academics, military officers and party officials, are looking to the next generation of leaders for signals as to how they will try to govern the world's second largest economy.

　　Both Messrs. Bo and Wang have been among the front-runners to join the Politburo Standing Committee—the top decision-making body—when current President and party chief Hu Jintao retires from it along with six more of its nine members in October or November.

　　Analysts say that any public comments this year from the two—at work reports during the congress or in press conferences afterward—will be opportunities to promote their respective political platforms as they lobby for top office.

　　"It will be interesting to see whether Bo keeps a lower profile this year," said Victor Shih, an expert on Chinese politics at Northwestern University. "We may also see Wang Yang being a little more assertive about what's going on in Guangdong. These kinds of signals will tell us who is in the ascendancy."

　　Mr. Bo has made a name for himself in recent years with lavish public spending on infrastructure, especially social housing, a high-profile crackdown on organized crime, and a controversial campaign encouraging locals to sing Maoist-era revolutionary songs.

　　Last year, he was considered a favorite for promotion to the Standing Committee after several top leaders visited his city and sang the praises of the "Chongqing model", which Mr. Bo has aggressively promoted at the last two NPCs.

　　More recently, however, Mr. Bo has been tainted by a scandal revolving around his former police chief and vice mayor, Wang Lijun, who sought refuge in the U.S. consulate in Chengdu in February before being taken away by security forces who had surrounded the building.

　　If Mr. Bo gives a press conference during the NPC, it could be the first time he will face direct questioning about the scandal. So far, his government has said only that Wang Lijun was suffering from "stress" and was having "vacation-style treatment,"

　　Local officials have been trying to distance Mr. Bo from the scandal by hinting that Wang Lijun had psychological issues. Huang Qifan, Chongqing's mayor, told a handful of attendees at a conference in Beijing on Tuesday that Wang Lijun had "pathological" problems.

　　Mr. Bo, meanwhile, has continued to make public appearances and receive official visitors, leading some analysts to conclude that he still enjoys the support of powerful elements within the party.

　　Other analysts say that even if Mr. Bo doesn't make it onto the Standing Committee, the party may borrow many of his ideas, which appeal in particular to the security forces, state-owned enterprises and other constituencies that see liberal reforms as a threat.

　　The continuing uncertainty surrounding the scandal "points towards the fact that for the first time in decades we might be observing a fight for the very future of China's economic, social and political development," wrote Thomas Koenig, coordinator of the China Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

　　Wang Yang, by contrast, was thought to be in political trouble last year after a spate of unrest among migrant workers appeared to undermine his declared goal of building a "happy Guangdong" by focusing less on growth, and more on social issues.

　　This year, however, he has won praise for his relatively liberal approach to a revolt by residents of Wukan, a village in Guangdong, over what they say was an illegal land grab by local officials. The officials were sacked, a property development frozen, and village elections held.

　　Mr. Wang's more liberal policies have also been highlighted in state media in relation to the anniversary of a trip to Guangdong by Deng Xiaoping in 1992, which relaunched China's economic reforms following a hiatus brought on by the political unrest of 1989.

　　The case for liberal reform was given a further boost this week when a report published by the World Bank and the top Chinese government think tank recommended sweeping changes in the economy, including reducing the power of state companies and breaking monopolies.

　　Mr. Wang kept a relatively low profile at last year's NPC, but this year some analysts expect him to showcase Guangdong's progressive reforms, which include lifting many restrictions on nongovernmental organizations, and even granting them public funds.

　　At a meeting of provincial officials Monday, he called for the construction of a "small government" and a "big society", according to the Guangzhou Daily newspaper, his government's official mouthpiece.

　　"We must build a 'small government' by clearly defining the boundaries of government functions, and genuinely transferring to society and the market matters that the government should not be responsible for," Mr. Wang said.

　　中国共产党内部关于中国未来的讨论不会在下周的人代会上公之于众，但一定是围绕两位省长，他们在去年秋天升至中央，分别代表了不同的发展道路。

　　约3000名代表将参加为期10天的会议，随声附和。（译者注：原文中的“橡皮图章议会”有有名无实的意思）。这是中国十年一次的领导人更替前最后一次“摆拍”，并会尽量避开公众对新领导人及其倾向的经济发展模式的讨论。

　　但民间讨论将很大程度上围绕这两方面内容来谈论这两位省级党领导。

　　其中之一是西南部大城市重庆市委书记薄熙来。他铁腕掌控重庆经济，复兴毛的集体主义。另一位是南方出口大省广东省委书记汪洋。他倡导精简政府，为私有企业和公众社会创造空间。

　　薄熙来的前公安局长上月传出丑闻，形象稍打折扣。而汪洋则因处理广东暴乱，阻止暴力蔓延而赢得不少支持。

　　人民代表大会的重轴戏一般是温家宝总理的政府工作报告，今年将于周一与政府预算一起公布。温总理年度记者招待会则一般在会议最后一天召开。

　　据瑞银的中国经济学者王涛（音译）说，此次会议应该明确政府今年的政策目标，采取适度宽松的货币政策推动经济增长，财政支出则会向人民生活层面，如社会保障住房等倾斜。

　　她在调查笔记中写道：我们认为会议主题将会是城市化，工业升级和促进中小企业发展。

　　人们预计温总理会再一次呼吁经济政治改革。但大家现在普遍认为温总理是个软角色，今年是他任期最后一年，而他在过去两年奔走疾呼的改革并不曾落实到政策上。

　　因此来自商界，学界，军队和党内的人大代表们正翘首以盼下届领导人给出指示，如何来统治这个世界第二大经济体。

　　薄汪两人都是中央政治局常委的重要候选人，今年10月或11月，现任主席和党一把手胡锦涛与九个成员中的六位将从这一国家最高决策机构中退下。

　　有分析认为，今年会议期间的工作文件以及之后记者招待会上的任何公众评论都将是两位的大好机遇，扩大各自政治舞台，为最高领导人这一席位拉票。

　　西北大学中国政治专家Victor Shih说：“我感兴趣的是薄熙来今年是否还会保持低调。汪洋可能会对广东事件态度更加强硬。这些都是显示谁在上升期的信号。”

　　薄熙来近几年通过对基础建设的大规模投入，特别是社会住房和高调打黑的行动赢得盛名。他还发起了一个颇具争议的唱红歌活动。

　　去年，几位中央政治局党委造访重庆，盛赞其在前两次人代会上大力推进的“重庆模式”，薄熙来也因此成为了提拔入中央政治局的热门人选。

　　但最近，围绕重庆市前公安局长副省长王立军的丑闻让薄熙来的形象稍打折扣。王立军二月曾要求驻成都美国领事馆的保护，之后被包围的警力带走。

　　如果薄熙来在人代会上召开新闻发布会的话，这将会是他第一次正面应对这一丑闻。现在重庆政府的说法只是，王立军正承受极大压力，并接受“休假式治疗”。

　　地方官员为了把薄熙来与王立军划清界限，暗示王立军有精神问题。重庆市长黄奇帆告诉周二在北京参会的一些代表，王立军有些精神疾病。

　　同时，薄熙来连续出镜，接待官员，于是一些人分析，他仍在党内享有极大的支持。

　　另有分析认为，即使薄熙来没能入选中央政治局常委，中央也会采纳他很多看法，特别是在视自由改革为威胁的治安、国有企业和其它方面，他的意见很受欢迎。

　　欧洲议会国际事务处中国司协调员Thomas Koenig说，围绕这一丑闻不断的是是非非“指明了一点，我们将见证十年一次的对中国未来经济社会政治发展的大论战”。

　　相反，去年汪洋则陷入政治危机。广东农民工骚乱，直接削弱了他“快乐广东”，少关注增长，多关注社会问题的政治目标。

　　今年，他对广东省乌坎县暴动相对自由的处理赢得了好评。这一事件中官员非法掠夺土地，最后这些官员被制裁，房地产开发项目被冻结，村级选举也开展起来。

　　国内媒体也突出了汪洋的自由政治，因为今年正值1992年邓小平南巡访问广东10周年。这一访问在1989年政治动荡带来的空白期后启动了经济改革。

　　本周世界银行发布的报告和中国政府高级智囊都认为，中国应大改经济结构，包括削弱国有企业权力，打破垄断。这也进一步推动了自由化改革。

　　汪洋在上届人代会上相对低调，但今年一些分析认为他会高调展示广东的大手笔改革，包括取消对非政府组织的限制，甚至提供政府基金等。

　　据广州日报和其发言人说，在周一的省级会议上，他呼吁建立一个“小政府，大社会”。

　　他说：“我们必须建立一个小政府，清晰界定政府的职能边界，把不该由政府负责的事项都转移出去，真正转到社会、转到市场上去，把该由政府负责的工作切实做好”。