全球航空业陷窘境

　　Further evidence of the tough conditions facing international airlines emerged in Australia on Tuesday after flagship carrier Qantas Airways Ltd. said it will post a full-year loss and the president of Emirates, the Middle East's largest airline, warned of a "perfect storm" in the industry that could force many airlines to downsize.
　　有关国际航空公司面临恶劣环境的更多证据周二在澳大利亚浮现。此前，澳大利亚旗舰航空公司澳洲航空公司(Qantas Airways Ltd.，简称澳航)说将公布全年亏损的数据，而中东最大航空公司阿联酋航空(Emirates Airline)的总裁也提醒说，航空业可能出现迫使很多公司瘦身的“完美风暴”。
　　Qantas is forecasting as much as a 91% slump in pretax earnings for the fiscal year ending June 30 amid a drop in passenger numbers. The airline is trying to restructure its unprofitable long-haul business and cut costs in areas such as staffing, aircraft maintenance and fuel.
　　澳航称，由于乘客人次减少，预计在截至6月30日这一财年公司税前收益下滑幅度或将达到91%。该公司目前正努力将其不盈利的长途飞行业务进行重组，同时在人员、飞机维护和燃料等方面削减成本。
　　 Higher fuel costs and a treacherous economic environment are weighing on global airlines, including Qantas and Emirates Airline. Asia's carriers last year earned 47% less in net profit than in 2010, at US$4.8 billion, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. Last month, Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. said it was considering whether to accelerate the retirement of aging aircraft after it warned of 'disappointing' first-half financial results. Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Korean Airlines recently posted quarterly losses, forcing both to rethink schedules and adjust aircraft deployment to boost profits.
　　不断上涨的燃料价格和暗流涌动的经济环境令全球航空公司承压，包括澳航和阿联酋航空。据亚太航协(Association of Asia Pacific Airlines)统计，亚洲航空公司去年实现净利润48亿美元，较2010年跌47%。国泰航空有限公司(Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd.)上个月说，正在考虑是否加快老化飞机的淘汰速度。该公司此前曾警告说，今年上半年的财务业绩可能令人失望。新加坡航空公司(Singapore Airlines Ltd.)和大韩航空(Korean Airlines)前不久也公布了季度亏损，因此均不得不为提高利润而重新考虑航班安排并调整飞机调度问题。
　　Even fast-growing Middle East airlines, once perceived to be immune from global trends, have started to voice concern about business conditions. "It's a perfect storm of adversity now facing airlines," Tim Clark, president of Dubai-based Emirates Airline, said in an interview. 'The euro is going south, the pound is going south, fuel costs are still too high.'Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
　　燃油成本和日趋疲软的经济正给亚太地区的航空公司带来麻烦。图为新加坡，一名澳航的飞行员正在检查一架空客飞机的尾部。就连快速增长的中东地区的航空公司也开始对航空业面临的环境表示担忧。这些航空公司一度被认为不受全球趋势的影响。总部位于迪拜的阿联酋航空的总裁克拉克(Tim Clark)接受采访时说，欧元正在走弱，英镑也在走弱，当前的燃料价格依旧太高。
　　Amid those challenges, though, Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways said Tuesday it has bought a nearly 4% stake in Qantas rival Virgin Australia Ltd. Shares in Virgin Australia closed at 41 Australian cents (40 U.S. cents) each Monday, leaving the company with a market capitalization of 906.2 million Australian dollars (US$881.5 million). That gives an implied valuation of A$35.9 million on Etihad's 3.96% stake.
　　尽管面临着众多挑战，总部位于阿布扎比的阿提哈德航空公司(Etihad Airways)周二仍说，该公司收购了与澳航的竞争对手维珍澳大利亚航空公司(Virgin Australia Ltd.)近4%的股份。维珍澳大利亚航空的股价周一收于每股0.41澳元（合0.40美元）。按照这个价格推算，该公司的市值为9.062亿澳元（合8.815亿美元），而阿提哈德航空收购该公司3.96%的股份应该花了3,590万澳元。
　　 A spokesman for Etihad said it would like to raise its holding to at least 10%. Etihad operates 24 flights a week between Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf and Australia.
　　阿提哈德航空的发言人说，希望将对维珍澳大利亚航空的持股比例提高至最少10%。阿提哈德航空每周有24个航班往返于阿布扎比和澳大利亚。阿布扎比位于波斯湾(Persian Gulf)。 Mr. Clark of Emirates cautioned that many global carriers could be forced to retrench. Last month, Emirates said its latest fiscal-year net profit fell 72% after the company took a US$1.6 billion hit from high fuel costs. Mr. Clark added Tuesday that the price of Brent crude oil will need to drop to between US$80 and US$90 a barrel, from about US$100, to revive margins.
　　克拉克提醒说，全球很多航空公司可能都会被迫压缩开支。阿联酋航空上个月说，公司最近一个财年的净利润跌幅达72%，高昂的燃油价格使得成本上升了16亿美元。克拉克周二还说，布伦特原油价格要从目前的每桶约100美元跌至80至90美元，才有可能恢复原来的利润率。
　　The International Air Transport Association in March cut its forecast for airlines'2012 net profit to a combined US$3 billion, off from US$3.5 billion in an earlier estimate.
　　国际航空运输协会(International Air Transport Association)今年3月将其对全球航空公司2012年净利润的预测从此前估计的35亿美元下调至30亿美元。
　　Concern that Qantas will need to raise funds to retain its investment-grade debt rating helped drive the company's shares to a record low Tuesday. The stock ended down 19% at 1.16 Australian dollars (US$1.13) a share after the profit warning. Chief Executive Alan Joyce said Qantas has a cash balance of more than A$3 billion and an undrawn debt facility of A$300 million that it can draw on if Europe's economic problems turn global, hitting commercial aviation.
　　周二，由于市场担心澳航需要筹集资金以维持其投资级的债务评级，其股价因此被拉低至纪录低位。在公司发出盈利预警之后，澳航股价收盘跌19%，至1.16澳元（约合1.13美元）。澳航的首席执行长乔伊斯(Alan Joyce)说，澳航的现金余额超过30亿澳元，还未动用的信贷额度有3亿澳元，如果欧洲的经济问题影响到全球，冲击到商业航空市场，那么澳航可以动用这些信贷额度。
　　 Still, Mr. Joyce said Qantas has the 'flexibility to reinstate or further reduce capital investment as appropriate.
　　'不仅如此，乔伊斯还说澳航拥有一定的灵活度，能够重新进行或进一步缩减资本投资，以将其保持在适当的水平。
　　The airline already plans to delay two deliveries of A380 superjumbo jetliners, valued at US$390 million each at list prices, from the Airbus unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. Qantas in August ordered as many as 110 single-aisle A320 Airbus jets, valued at US$9 billion at list prices, in the biggest single aircraft order in Australian history. The order included 78 A320neos, the more fuel-efficient version of the A320, that Qantas will operate primarily on domestic and Asian routes. Qantas is also awaiting delivery of 50 Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliners.
　　澳航已经计划推迟从欧洲航空防务和航天公司(European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co., 简称EADS)旗下的空中客车公司(Airbus)接收两架A380超大型客机，按目录价格计算，每架客机的售价为3.9亿美元。去年8月，澳航订购了多达110架空客单走道A320客机，按目录价格计算，订单价值达90亿美元。这是澳大利亚历史上单笔额度最高的飞机订单。订单中包括78架A320neo。A320neo是A320的改款机型，其燃油效率更高。澳航将主要在国内和亚洲航线上使用A320neo。澳航也正在等待波音公司(Boeing Co.)交付50架787梦想客机(787 Dreamliner)。
　　As of June 30 last year, Qantas had net debt including off balance-sheet liabilities of 6.97 billion Australian dollars (US$6.78 billion). The airline said Tuesday that its pretax profit could fall as much as 91% to A$50 million for the fiscal year ending later this month. Most analysts had expected pretax earnings of about A$300 million.
　　截至去年6月30日，澳航的净债务（包括表外负债）达到了69.7亿澳元（约合67.8亿美元）。澳航周二表示，在截至今年6月底的这一财年其税前利润降幅可能高达91%，至5,000万澳元。大多数分析师此前预计澳航这一财年的税前利润能够达到约3亿澳元。
　　"People were aware of the economic environment but it's really starting to bite into earnings," said Angus Gluskie, managing director of White Funds Management, which holds a small stake in Qantas. "It's also biting into cash flows. It's highly likely you're going to see them needing capital very shortly."
　　White Funds Management的董事总经理格拉斯基(Angus Gluskie)说，人们已经意识到经济环境不好，但这已经开始影响到公司利润，同时还影响到现金流；你很可能将会看到这些公司马上需要资金的情况。
　　White Funds Management持有澳航少数股份。
　　Qantas is seeking to turn around its unprofitable long-haul business, which the carrier aims to return to break-even by 2014. To stem losses, the airline is terminating poorly-performing routes, cutting thousands of jobs, consolidating engineering and catering bases, and establishing joint ventures in Asia such as Jetstar Japan and Jetstar Hong Kong.
　　澳航正试图转变长途航线无法盈利的状况，澳航的目标是到2014年前该项业务能够重新实现盈亏平衡。为了遏制亏损，澳航关停了业绩不佳的航线，削减了数千个就业机会，合并了工程和餐饮基地，在亚洲设立了捷星日本(Jetstar Japan) 和捷星香港(Jetstar Hong Kong)等合资企业。　
　　Despite Tuesday's profit warning, the status of the company's investment-grade rating is likely to be dependent on the outcome of the airline's strategic review. "Very importantly from a creditperspective is the trend in cash flow over the next two years," said May Zhong, a credit analyst at Standard & Poor's.
　　尽管周二公布了盈利预警，但澳航能否保住投资级的债务评级可能取决于澳航战略审查的结果。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)的信用分析师May Zhong说，未来两年澳航的现金流变化趋势对其信用评级十分重要。