希拉里可能再次竞选总统 背水一战

　　　　Hillary Clinton is riding high in the betting for 2016, but this week was filled with reminders, if they were needed, that her dream of becomingAmerica's first female president cannot be accomplished without indignity.

　　Officially, Mrs Clinton is currently enjoying her first spell outside public life for 30 years, but in practice her undeclared campaign is already filling the vacuum left by an increasingly marginalised and irrelevant-looking second-term president.

　　While Barack Obama was off fundraising in California this week, it was Mrs Clinton who was drawing all the attention on cable news.

　　First, Monica Lewinsky broke her silence of a decade, writing inVanity Fairthat she found it "troubling" that, as she saw it, Mrs Clinton "blamed not only me, but herself", backhandedly raising questions about the former First Lady's moral and emotional judgment.

　　Then Republicans in Congress voted to form yet another panel to investigatethe handling of the Benghazi attacks in which two American diplomats and two CIA officers were killedtowards the end of Mrs Clinton's time at State.

　　Mrs Clinton, who is certain to be called to testify, has already described the Benghazi episode as her "biggest regret" while in office, and conservatives will waste no opportunity to remind voters of a security debacle they say the White House deliberately tried to whitewash.

　　Then there was Boko Haram. Mrs Clinton's tweet drawing attention to Nigeria's kidnapped schoolgirls under the hashtag "#BringBackOurGirls" was initially hailed as a demonstration of her global influence, with Michelle Obama and other influential people joining a spontaneous campaign.

　　But conservatives were soon rushing to the television studios to point out that Mrs Clinton had repeatedly declined to designate Boko Haram as a terrorist organization while she was Secretary of State. Yet another attempt to question her record.

　　Despite Republican protestations to the contrary, none of these attacks are even close to killer blows. They might play well with the party's Hillary-hating base, but the Lewinsky scandal is old news, Benghazi has become a partisan hobbyhorse and the Boko Haram "scandal" was actually a decision justified at the time by a perfectly reasonable desire not to internationalise a regional terror outfit.

　　All the same, they do point to the bare-knuckle nature of the fight that lies ahead. If Mrs Clinton decides to run for president she cannot expect to rise above the fray as she did while serving as Secretary of State.

　　On occasion recently Mrs Clinton displays a distinctly lofty tone. When she came out in favour of same-sex unions after leaving the State Department's Foggy Bottom headquarters, she equated equality for gay marriages to her own experience of her daughter Chelsea's marriage, adding with regal condescension that "I wish every parent that same joy".

　　It is not a tone that works well on the stump, and, as she demonstrated when flying off the handle during earlier Benghazi hearings, and in her nasty primary fight with Mr Obama in 2008, Mrs Clinton's record in televised debates is shaky.

　　She may have no serious challenger for the Democratic nomination this time - polls put her 50 points clear of Joe Biden, the vice president and her nearest rival - but the presidential race will always be close given the structural divisions of modern American politics.

　　Try as she might to differentiate herself, Mrs Clinton will also be running as a "third term" president, and unless he lifts his rock-bottom approval ratings, Mr Obama will leave her none of the foundation of popularity that Ronald Reagan bequeathed to George H W Bush, or Bill Clinton to Al Gore (who then squandered it).

　　If Republicans can find a fresh, plausible candidate ruthlessly focused on improving middle class lives rather than the Culture Wars, then Mrs Clinton will have to struggle to explain to voters why they should embrace what Republicans will tout as "four more years" (of failure).

　　Perhaps the twin novelties of being a "first woman president" and a "first First Lady to be president" will be sufficient to get her over the line, but she shouldn't bet on that.

　　All this might explain why "Team Hillary" says she has still not made up her mind to run. It was no more than a "a 50-50 proposition" aides toldPolitico this week, with one "confidant" questioning whether the 66-year-old, soon to be grandmother, wants to spend "the rest of her useful life" locked in a political dog-fight.

　　Such protestations sound plausible, until you stop to think about it.

　　This is a woman, after all, who has spent 30 unbroken years in public life - beginning as First Lady of Arkansas after Bill's re-election as governor in 1982, and then choosing to run for senate straight after her husband left the White House, and shortly after, for president.

　　A lifetime of drive and ambition is not so lightly put aside, which is why these maidenly protestations are almost certainly more about Mrs Clinton's brand management and avoiding the "inevitability" tag which hurt her against the upstart Mr Obama in 2008, than about serious second thoughts.

　　The smart money says Mrs Clinton will run but, for all her current pre-eminence, she should prepare for a dogfight, not a coronation tour.

　　据外媒报道，希拉里·克林顿2016年可能再次冲击总统宝座，目前所获支持一路高涨。但近来发生的事不断提醒她，想实现成为美国第一任女总统的梦想，必然会听到各种各样侮辱的声音。

　　首先，莫尼卡·莱温斯基(Monica Lewinsky)十多年来首次打破沉默，在《名利场》杂志上说道，她感到很“困扰”，因为她认为希拉里“不仅责备我，也在自责”。这间接让人们开始质疑这位前美国第一夫人的道德评判。

　　接着，国会中的共和党人投票建立小组，调查希拉里任职快结束时对美驻班加西领馆遭袭事件的处理。此次事件中两名外交官和两位美国中央情报局官员身亡。

　　希拉里将被传唤作证，尽管她称班加西遭袭事件是她就职期间“最大的遗憾”。保守党自然不会放过这次机会，提醒选民们白宫极力想粉饰这次安全危机。

　　再接下来是伊斯兰极端组织博科圣地(Boko Haram)。希拉里在推特上发表“把女孩带回来”的呼吁，将人们的吸引力拉到尼日利亚被绑架的女学生身上，并和米歇尔·奥巴马和其他有影响力的人参与一场活动。这被誉为其全球影响的体现。

　　但是保守派很快跑到电视演播室，指出希拉里身为国务卿，却多次拒绝将博科圣地看做恐怖组织，再一次试图质疑她的工作。

　　但这些攻击都不足以造成致命一击，最多造成“讨厌希拉里”的气氛。莱温斯基是旧新闻，班加西遭袭事件也是两党老调重弹，而希拉里关于博科圣地的声称事实上事出有因，其合理理由是不想“将地区性恐怖组织国际化”。

　　不过，摆在面前的战斗是残酷的。如果希拉里想角逐总统一职，她就不能指望像当时任国务卿时置身争议之外。

　　最近，希拉里的表态让人起敬。她离开国务院总部后表示支持同性婚姻，她将同性婚姻和自己女儿切尔西的婚姻同等看待，谦卑地说：“我希望所有父母能感受到同样的快乐。”

　　这种态度在其巡回竞选演说中没起多大作用，而且她在先前班加西事件听证会上大发雷霆进行示威，加之2008年她与奥巴马第一次竞选时表现让人讨厌，希拉里的电视竞选辩论纪录并不尽如人意。

　　这次在民主党的总统候选人提名中，希拉里没有强大的挑战者——调查显示她的支持率为50%，超过了其最接近的对手副总统拜登——不过基于美国政治的结构划分，总统竞选时各人的支持率总是不分上下。

　　尽管希拉里努力展示自己与众不同，她还是要竞选总统接替奥巴马一职。而且，除非奥巴马重振自己已经跌到谷底的支持率，他就无法像罗纳德·里根向乔治·H·W·布什或比尔·克林顿向阿尔·戈尔(后者将支持率挥霍一空)那样将民众的支持赠给希拉里了。

　　如果共和党人能重新找一个看似可信的候选人，此人下定决心提高中产阶级生活水平，而非将注意力放在文化战争上，希拉里就不得不努力向选民解释为什么他们得欣然接受共和党人吹捧的“再来四年”(仍是失败)的口号。

　　也许“首位女总统”和“首位当上总统的第一夫人”这两个方面的新鲜事儿就足以让希拉里胜利出线，但她不该在这上面下赌注。

　　所有这些解释了为什么“希拉里团队”表示她还没决定参选。这个周她的一个助手告诉《政客日报》(Politico)，大家对此的看法“一半对一半”，一个“密友”曾质疑，66岁的即将做祖母的希拉里将“剩下的有意义的生命”花在政治争斗中是否有必要。

　　如果仔细想想，你会发现这种声明根本不可信。

　　毕竟，这个女人连续30年过着公共生活——1982年，比尔再次当选阿肯色州州长，她成为阿肯色州第一夫人，之后，她丈夫离开白宫后，她立刻竞选参议员，后来不久又竞选总统。

　　一生的追求和雄心不可能轻易放弃，这就是为什么谨慎的声明避免出现2008年与新贵奥巴马竞选时她"肯定当选"的言论，这种言论曾深深伤害了她。

　　知情人透漏希拉里一定会参选。尽管她目前形势大好，她仍该准备背水一战，而非加冕之旅。