学者：李克强访问欧洲正当其时

　　　　Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will use his attendance at the Asia-Europe summit in Milan on Oct 16 and 17 as an opportunity to visit Germany and Italy. The ASEM summit is an important gathering of European and Asian leaders every two years to discuss global issues. It also provides a useful occasion for bilateral meetings. One of the important bilateral meetings for Premier Li in Milan will be a working dinner with outgoing European Union President Herman van Rompuy and Commission President José Manuel Barroso.

　　The Chinese Premier's visit takes place against slowing economic growth in Europe and China. While the worst phase of the eurozone crisis is over, there is still much to do to rekindle growth rates and tackle high unemployment. The European Commission estimates growth in the EU this year will barely reach 1 percent while youth unemployment in Spain and Greece is over 30 percent.

　　In these circumstances, the EU is looking to China to maintain its high growth rates and act as the driver for the global economy. Europe and China are each other's biggest trading partners so when one catches a cold it affects the other. European leaders are confident that Beijing knows what levers to adjust to continue China's remarkable growth. But they also know there will be no return to double digit growth. China has to tackle massive environmental problems, debt-ridden State-owned enterprises and local authorities, and root out corruption.

　　This will be a tall order, but as the Chinese economy slows there will be potential to increase cooperation with the EU. The EU has the know-how and technology, for example, to help China tackle its huge environmental problems. It also has useful experience in regional policy that may be helpful for China. Both sides need to work together for a successful outcome at the climate change conference in Paris next year.

　　Premier Li's meeting with van Rompuy and Barroso will be the last meeting with the current EU leaders. A new team is scheduled to take over in November - Donald Tusk as President of the European Council, Jean Claude Juncker as Commission President and Federica Mogherina as the High Representative for foreign and security policy. It will be a top priority to establish good contacts between China and the new EU leadership and proceed with the implementation of the 2020 Strategic Agenda. This vision document agreed earlier this year sets out areas in which Beijing and Brussels can work together in the next five years.

　　Next year will mark the 40th anniversary of EU-China relations and a host of events are planned to mark the occasion. These will include a special summit, several ministerial meetings, exhibitions, sporting and cultural events.

　　In the meantime negotiations continue for an important bilateral investment treaty. Premier Li is also keen on innovation, while the EU leaders will highlight the need for fair competition and the stability of financial markets.

　　The Milan dinner will also cover international issues, such as Iraq, Syria and Ukraine. Events in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region might cast a shadow over the meeting, but it seems the situation has calmed now.

　　In Italy, Li will meet with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who has made a name for himself as an energetic promoter of reform. But he now needs to follow up his rhetoric with deeds. The Italian economy remains weak and Renzi will be looking to China for a boost in investment. China has the capital to invest in European infrastructure. It is already buying into nuclear power in the UK and ports in Greece. It has also established a 16+1 framework to boost investment with Eastern Europe.

　　In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel remains the country's and Europe's dominant politician. As the paymaster of the EU, she has imposed austerity on most EU member states whether they like it or not. Li will be looking to maintain and boost the excellent bilateral relations between China and Germany. Li will also speak at an important business summit in Hamburg where the main theme is improving economic relations between the EU and China.

　　In between Germany and Italy Premier Li will visit Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Russia and the EU are at odds over Ukraine. Both will be seeking Li's support for their respective viewpoints.

　　In the absence of a second full EU-China summit this year because of the change in the EU's leadership, Li's dinner with van Rompuy and Barroso should provide a welcome boost to the bilateral relationship.

中国总理李克强将借10月16到17号在米兰参加亚欧峰会之机访问德国和意大利。亚欧峰会每两年举办一届，亚欧各国首脑将齐聚讨论全球性问题。这也为进行双边会议提供了一个有利场合。李克强总理在米兰的重要双边会议之一就是要和行将离职的欧洲理事会主席赫尔曼·范龙佩(Herman van Rompuy)以及欧盟委员会主席若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐(José Manuel Barroso)共进晚餐。

　　李克强总理此次访问主要是为了应对中欧经济增速放缓的问题。虽然已经挺过了欧元区危机最坏的时候，但是重振经济和扭转高失业率仍然任重道远。欧盟委员会预计今年整个欧盟区的经济增长率只能勉强达到1%，而西班牙和希腊的青年失业率将超过30%。

　　在这种情况下，欧盟希望中国作为全球经济的引擎能继续保持高经济增长率。欧盟和中国互为彼此最大的贸易伙伴，双方利益休戚相关。欧盟领导人相信中国方面了解该采用何种手段让中国经济持续发展。但欧盟也很清楚中国经济增长率不会再回到两位数了。中国需要处理严重的环境问题以及国有企业和地方政府的赤字问题，根除腐败。

　　这将是一项艰巨的任务，但在中国经济增长放缓之际，中国和欧盟的合作将带来新的机遇。欧盟有经验和技术能帮助中国解决譬如环境恶化方面的问题。欧盟区域政策的经验也能帮到中国。双边需要在明年巴黎举行的气候变化大会上加强双边合作，促进共同发展。

　　李克强总理会见范龙佩和巴罗索的会议被安排在会见欧盟领袖的最后阶段。11月，新的团队将会接班——由唐纳德·图斯克(Donald Tusk)担任欧洲理事会主席，简·克劳德·容克(Jean Claude Juncker)担任欧盟委员会主席，费德丽卡·莫格丽娜(Federica Mogherina)担任外交和安全政策高级代表。新欧盟领导人将把继续与中国发展良好关系以及实施2020战略目标放在首要位置。这份今年早些时候达成的协议规划出中欧未来五年合作的前景文档。(双方将把建立中国与欧盟新领导之间的良好关系以及继续实施《中欧合作2020战略规划》放在首要位置。这份今年早些时候达成的前景协议制定了北京和布鲁塞尔在未来5年内的合作领域。)

　　明年是中欧建交40周年，届时将会举行一系列活动记录这一历史性的时刻，包括一次特殊峰会，几个部长级会议、展览，以及体育和文化交流活动。

　　同时双方将继续就一项重大的双边投资协议展开谈判。李克强总理热衷于创新，同时欧盟领导人则强调平等竞争和稳定金融市场。

　　米兰的晚宴上还会谈及重大国际问题，比如伊拉克、叙利亚和乌克兰问题。香港特别行政区的事件为晚宴蒙上了一层阴影，不过该事件现在似乎已经平息了。

　　李克强总理将会在意大利会见总理马泰奥·伦齐(Matteo Renzi)，一个以精力充沛的革命者形象著称的人。但他需要将语言转化成行动。意大利经济仍然疲软，伦齐希望中国的投资能成为经济增长的助推器。中国有资本投资欧洲的基础设施，中国已经参股英国核电站项目，并收购了希腊最大港口，此外还建立了16+1合作框架促进对东欧的投资。

　　德国总理安吉拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)仍是该国和整个欧洲最强有力的政客，(手握财政大权的)她可以不顾各国意见，将紧缩政策强行施加给每个欧盟成员国。李克强总理此次访问将寻求保持中德双边良好合作的态势。李克强总理还将在汉堡举行的经济峰会上就促进中欧经济合作发表重要讲话。

　　在访问德国和意大利之间，李克强总理还将访问俄罗斯并会见俄罗斯总统弗拉迪米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)以及总理德米特里·梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)。俄罗斯和欧盟在乌克兰问题上存在争端，双方持不同观点，但都寻求李克强总理的支持。

　　由于今年欧盟领导人变化，中欧峰会第二次将无法如期举行，这样李克强总理与范龙佩以及巴罗索的晚宴应给双边关系起到重大促进作用。

　　作者弗雷泽·卡梅伦(Fraser Cameron) 为智库欧盟-亚洲中心(EU-Asia Centre )主管，本文刊登于10月9日出版的《中国日报》。