口译：世行常务副行长英卓华在2013中国发展高层论坛上的

Deepeningof Reforms-the way ahead

深化改革——未来之路

--Speech at China DevelopmentForum 2013

——在2013中国发展高层论坛上的演讲

Sri Mulyani Indrawati

英卓华

Beijing, China

北京，中国

March 24, 2013

2013年3月25日

Introduction

引言

Honorable Ministers,distinguished participants,

尊敬的各位部长，各位参会嘉宾，

I am pleased to join you today todiscuss challenges as China enters into a new phase of reforms.

我很高兴能够在中国在进入改革新阶段之际来和大家共同讨论中国面临的挑战。

By any standard, China’s economicperformance over the last three decades has been impressive.

无论以什么标准衡量，中国在过去三十年的经济表现都是令人瞩目的。

GDP growth averaged 10 percent ayear, and over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty.

GDP年均增长10%， 五亿多人摆脱贫困。

But there is no time forcomplacency in a rapidly changing world where global growth rates and globaltrade are slowing down.

但是现在不是自满的时候，世界在快速变化，全球增长率和全球贸易都在放慢速度。

Growth has come down in China aswell: Government’s prognosis for the current year is 7.5%.

中国的增长也已放慢：政府今年的预期是7.5%。

In addition, many of theunderpinnings for China’s growth are gradually weakening.

此外，支撑中国快速增长的很多基本要素也在趋弱。主要原因现已众所周知：

The main reasons are well knownby now:

首先，中国的人口增长率很低而且仍在下降，劳动力人数预计很快会出现下降。

First, population growth is lowand falling, and the labor force is expected to start declining soon.

首先，中国的人口增长率很低而且仍在下降，劳动力人数预计很快会出现下降。

Second, the continued accumulationof capital, while sizable, will inevitably contribute less to growth as thecapital-labor ratio rises.

第二，资本的持续积累，尽管规模很大，但随着资本劳动力比率的上升，对增长的贡献必然会逐渐减少。

Third, total factor productivitygrowth—a measure of improvements in economic efficiency and technologicalprogress—is also declining. The economyhas exhausted gains from first-generation policy reforms.

第三，作为衡量经济效率和技术进步指标的全要素生产率增长也在下降，经济已经耗尽第一代政策改革的成果。

In addition, China’s rapid growthhas come with a considerable burden on the environment and rising incomeinequalities, both of which are socially undesirable.

此外，中国的快速增长给环境造成了相当大的负担，也导致收入不平等现象不断增加，这两方面对社会来说都是很不利。

The Government has fully recognizedthis shift in the growth pattern and the need to change course.

中国政府充分认识到需要转变增长方式和改变方针。

The 12th five year plan reflectsmany of the needed policies, but more needs to be done.

十二五计划已反映出很多亟待采取的政策，但还有更多的事情要做。

Let me focus on three broad areasthat promise significant gains in efficiency and productivity and a reductionin imbalances:

我想着重谈三个宏观的领域，这三个领域的改革可以带来效率和生产率的大幅提高并缓解失衡问题：

First, the enterprise sectorneeds to facilitate more efficient resource use and to motivate innovation andentrepreneurship.

第一，需要促进企业界更有效地利用资源，发挥创新和创业精神。

Second, reforms of inputmarkets—land, labor, and capital—needs to overcome severe distortions in factorallocation.

第二，需要改革要素市场，包括土地、劳动力和资本，以消除要素分配过程中严重的扭曲现象。

Third, the fiscal system needs tohelp deliver the level and quality of public social and environmental services.

第三，需要推进财政体制改革，以助力公共社会服务和环境服务的水平及质量的提升。

Increasingcompetition

加强竞争

China’s own past as well asinternational experience show that increased domestic competition can raiseproductivity and efficiency and promote innovation.

中国的历史经验以及国际经验都表明，加强国内竞争能够提升生产率及效率，促进创新。

The rapid growth of the lastthree decades has been based on the private sector’s significant role, and thishas put competitive pressures on State Owned Enterprises (SOE) to reform.

China’s accession to the WorldTrade Organization in 2001 triggered economy-wide improvements in efficiencyand spurred technology acquisition and adaptation.

中国过去三十年的发展主要得益于民营经济发挥了重要作用，这也给国有企业带来了改革压力。中国在2001年入世之后也实现了整体经济效率的提升，进一步推进了新技术的引进和利用。

More recently, the phasing out ofincentives stimulated competition by leveling the playing field between foreignand domestically owned firms.

从更近期来看，逐步取消优惠条件为中外企业构建公平的竞争环境也刺激了竞争。

Relative to the private sector,SOEs consume a large proportion of capital, raw materials, and intermediateinputs to produce relatively small shares of gross output and value added.

与民营企业相比，国有企业消耗大量的资本、原材料和中间产品，而在总产出和增加值中占的比重却比较小。

“Strategic” sectors or “basic orpillar” industries remain the almost exclusive domain of SOEs.

“战略性”部门或者“基础或支柱”产业仍旧几乎全部由国有企业把持。

This undermines efficiency of theeconomy, limits innovation, hampers the transformation to a new growth pattern,and reduces the welfare of China’s people.

这种情况削弱了经济效率，限制了创新，影响了向新的增长模式转型，也减少了人民的福祉。

Increasing competition requiresthe following:

加强竞争需要具备以下条件：

•lowering entry barriers intoState dominated business sectors,

·降低进入国有企业占主导的行业的壁垒；

•dismantling monopolies andoligopolies when competition would yield superior results, for example inpetroleum, chemicals, electricity distribution, and telecommunications,

·在那些竞争能够带来更好结果的行业如石油、化工、配电和通讯产业取消垄断和寡头垄断；

•introducing oversightarrangements where monopolies are considered necessary to ensure that marketpower is not abused, such as in railways,

·在那些认为有必要垄断的行业如铁路行业建立监督机制，以确保市场权力不被滥用；

•a review and modernization ofthe industrial policies that the authorities have used so far. In countries that have successfullyimplemented industrial policies, such as Korea and Japan, State interventionwas aligned with competition amongst private firms that had to compete for thissupport.

·对当局迄今采取的产业政策进行审议和推进现代化。在那些成功地实施产业政策的国家如韩国和日本，国家干预与民营企业必须竞争以获得这种支持保持一致。

The expanded scope for theprivate sector would have to be complemented by the restructuring of remainingSOEs to mixed ownership enterprises and listed corporations.

·在扩大民营部门经营范围的同时，必须辅之以现有国有企业结构重组构建混合所有制企业及上市公司。

China should consider limits onthe financial support that its local governments can provide to firms, so thatnon-competitive firms do not continue to divert resources from more efficientones.

·中国应当考虑限制地方政府对企业提供的支持，从而使无竞争力的企业不能继续与效率高的企业争夺资源。

Overhaulingfactor markets

改革要素市场

Let me turn to the second reformarea.

我现在谈第二个改革领域。

To complete the transition to amarket economy and further strengthen growth, China needs to overhaul itsfactor markets.

为了完成市场经济转型和进一步强化增长，中国需要改革生产要素市场。

Well-functioning markets of land,capital and labor are also a pre-requisite for efficient and inclusive urbanization,one of the key priorities of the government as Prime Minister Li Keqiang hasemphasized.

运转良好的土地、资本和劳动力市场也是实现高效率和包容性的城镇化的一个先决条件，是李克强总理所强调的政府的一个关键的优先任务。

China’s pace and pattern ofurbanization will determine its growth trajectory and its spatial convergence(or lack thereof) in living standards.

中国城镇化的速度和模式将决定其增长轨迹和生活水平的空间趋同（或缺乏趋同）。

Landmarket

土地市场

Over the next twenty years, landwill become increasingly scarce and its efficient use will become more criticalfor food security, innovative cities, equality of opportunity, and socialstability.

在未来二十年，土地将会变得日益稀缺，其高效利用对于粮食安全、创新城市、机会均等和社会稳定具有更重要的意义。

To increase the efficiency ofland use, the most pressing priority is to ensure security of agricultural landtenure.

为了提高土地的利用效率，当务之急是保障农业用地安全。

The recent policy decisions togrant indefinite land use rights to farmers, expand land registration, andstrengthen rural land markets are steps in the right direction.

最近的政策决议包括给予农民无限期的土地使用权、扩大土地登记和加强农村土地市场，都是朝着正确的方向采取的步骤。

A second priority is reformingland acquisition and compensation practices.

第二个优先重点是改革土地征用及补偿措施。

Local governments must notacquire rural land for urban use when the urban development plans have been notbeen reviewed and approved by a higher level of government.

地方政府不得在城市发展规划尚未得到上级政府审批的情况下征用农村土地作为城市用地。

The current practice ofcompensation—a frequent cause of complaints—needs to be overhauled.

目前的补偿措施——也是民众抱怨的一个常见原因——需要进行改革。

Anchoring expanded land rights inlaw would provide farmers with recourse to the courts, which will prevent landconversion abuse.

以法律的形式将扩大土地使用权固定下来会给予农民诉诸法院的权利，从而可以防止土地转换中的权力滥用。

A third priority is to develop alternativesto land rents and land financing.

第三个优先重点是开发土地租赁和土地融资的备选方案。

Opening up more regular channelsof local government financing will reduce the need to use land financing.

开拓更常规的地方政府融资渠道可以减少利用土地融资的必要性。

China is already pilotingproperty taxes in two cities but is finding that its introduction is usuallydifficult for technical, institutional, and social reasons.

中国已经在两个城市开展房产税试点，但发现由于技术、制度和社会原因实行起来通常有难度。

But such a tax has considerablerevenue potential: Countries such as the United States and Canada raise 3–4percent of their GDP from property taxes, and the average among OECD members isnear 2 percent of GDP.

但房产税具有相当大的财政收入潜力：美国、加拿大等国通过征收房产税将GDP增加了3～4%，而在经合组织国家房产税收入占GDP的比例接近2%。

Regular, on-budget localgovernment borrowing should eventually replace the current land-basedfinancing.

常规的预算内地方政府债务应最终取代目前依靠土地的融资方式。

Capitalmarket

资本市场

Despite impressive progress inreforms, China’s financial system remains repressed and suffers from key structuralimbalances.

尽管改革取得了显著进展，但中国的金融体系依然受到压抑且存在关键性的结构失衡。

Not only do these imbalances posesignificant systemic risks, they will prevent China’s financial system fromserving an increasingly dynamic and internationally integrated economy.

这些失衡现象不仅构成严重的制度风险，而且会阻碍中国的金融体系为日益充满活力和融入世界的经济服务。

The first priority should be toincrease interest rate flexibility and move to a point where interest ratesclear the credit market.

第一项优先重点应当是增强利率的灵活性，推进由利率来清理信贷市场。

China’s authorities would need tointroduce a plan that phases out the ceiling on deposit rates and the floorsupporting lending rates at the same time.

中国当局需要推出一个计划逐步取消存款利率上限同时取消支持贷款利率的下限。

Second, the capital market willneed to be deepened and reformed to make more equity and securitized financingavailable.

第二，资本市场需要进一步深化和改革，以提供更多股权和证券化融资。

To achieve this, China couldreform the system of initial public offerings.

为了实现这一点，中国须改革IPO发行制度。

In parallel, China will need tofocus on improving the capital market’s legal framework, upgrading thefinancial infrastructure, and imposing more stringent rules on informationdisclosure.

同时，中国需要着眼于完善资本市场的法律框架，对金融基础设施进行升级改造，实行更加严厉的信息披露规定。

Europe between 1945 and 1992provides an example of how the financial sector can be gradually reformed andliberalized and, ultimately, internationalized.

1945年至1992年的欧洲提供了一个金融部门逐渐改革开放最终实现国际化的榜样。

Of course, there are risks, as weknow from the Asian, and more recently the global, financial crises, so reformsneed to be defined and developed bearing risks in mind.

当然也存在风险，正如我们从亚洲金融危机以及最近的全球金融危机中所知，所以界定和开展改革时需要深刻牢记风险。

Nonetheless, China’s authoritieshave gained tremendous experience and capabilities to manage and supervise itsfinancial sector.

然而，中国当局已从管理和监督金融部门中获得了大量的经验和能力。

Labormarket

劳动力市场

Developing a flexible and dynamiclabor market will be central to China’s future success as a high-income, openeconomy.

发展灵活和充满活力的劳动力市场对于中国未来成功地成为高收入开放型经济体将是十分重要的。

Over the coming decades, theabsorption of hundreds of millions moving from rural areas to urban areas insearch of better jobs will require labor markets that are flexible andinstitutions that protect workers.

在未来数十年里，要想吸收千百万到城市来寻找更好的工作的农村转移劳动力，就需要有灵活的劳动力市场和保护劳动者的制度。

Reforming the hukou system, a key impediment tomobility, will be a top priority that needs to be completed sooner rather thanlater.

改革妨碍劳动力流动的户口制度将是一项首要任务，需要尽快完成，宜早不宜迟。

Advancing hukou reform would include:

推进户口制度改革须包括：

•delinking the hukou from access to public services andusing a residential permit, not household registration, to determineeligibility to receive services;

·将户口与享受公共服务脱钩，根据居留证而不是户口来决定是否有资格获得服务；

•encouraging pilot reformprograms at the local level;

·鼓励在地方层面进行改革试点；

•redefining financingresponsibilities, and revenue authority between central and local governmentsas an incentive for reform.

·重新界定中央与地方政府之间的融资职责和收入分配作为对改革的激励机制。

To increase labor mobility,social security (pensions, health and unemployment insurance) should becomeportable nationwide.

·为了增加劳动力流动，社会保障（养老金、医疗和失业保险）应成为可携带的。

Social security would need toremain affordable for employers and not become an impediment for hiring labor.

·社会保障必须是雇主可以负担得起的，不能成为雇佣劳动力的障碍。

Absorbing legacy costs in thegeneral government debt and raising the pension age are options that wouldreduce social security taxes and increase the demand for labor.

·通过一般政府债务吸收历史遗留成本和提高退休年龄都是可选方案，可以降低社会保障税和增加劳动力需求。

Reformingthe fiscal system

改革财政制度

I have already touched on fiscalreforms, and this morning Stephen Groff from the ADB also reviewed the fiscalreform issues ahead.

我已经谈到过财政改革问题，今天上午亚行的斯蒂芬-格罗夫也谈了未来的财政改革问题。

For the sake of time, I willtherefore just touch on three challenges.

由于时间关系，我只简要谈一谈三项挑战。

The first challenge is to containgovernment spending while changing its composition in line with China’s newpriorities, reallocating resources over time from lower- to higher-prioritygovernment programs, such as health and education.

第一项挑战是抑制政府支出，同时改变支出的构成以使其符合中国新的优先重点，逐渐将资源分配从政府规划中的低优先项目向高优先项目如教育卫生转移。

{The revision of the 1994 budgetlaw, which is currently being considered, is an opportunity to modernizeChina’s fiscal institutions.}

（目前正在酝酿的对1994年预算法进行修订是一个推进中国财政制度现代化的契机。）

The second, challenge is raisingmore revenues to meet rising budgetary demands, for example, through:

第二项挑战是增加财政收入来满足不断增加的预算需求，例如通过：

•higher SOE dividends;

·增加国有企业的分红上缴；

•higher taxes on energy and motorvehicle use;

·提高能源和汽车使用税；

•expanding property taxes toresidences;

·扩大居民房产税征收；

•personal income taxes as Chinagrows richer (these taxes make up only 1 percent of China’s GDP, compared withan average of almost 6 percent in high-income countries); and

·随着中国逐渐富裕而提高个人所得税（中国个税占GDP的比例只有1%，而高收入国家平均比例接近6%）；

•expanding the VAT to services(which would encourage firms to outsource services currently produced in-housefor tax reasons).

·扩大服务业的增值税（这样可以鼓励企业出于纳税原因将目前自行生产的产品外包）。

The third fiscal challenge is tomatch budgetary revenues with expenditure responsibilities.

第三项财政挑战是使预算收入与支出职责相匹配。

China is among the most decentralizedcountries in the world when it comes to government spending.

就政府支出而言中国是世界上放权程度最大的国家。

But revenues are highlycentralized, and rapid urbanization will exacerbate the already large revenuedisparities among local governments.

但财政收入是高度集中的，而快速城镇化将会进一步扩大地方政府之间已经很大的收入差距。

To improve the match betweenspending and revenues at the local level, three reforms are critical:

为了改善地方层面支出与收入之间的匹配，有三项改革至关重要：

First, increasing the scope oflocal revenues, such as with the property tax, which I mentioned.

·首先是增加地方财政收入的范围，比如我前面提到过的房产税。

Second, centralizing somespending, notably on social security. This would also increase labor mobility.

·第二，集中一些支出项目，如社会保障。这也可以增加劳动力流动。

Third, developing nationwiderules for more equal distribution of revenues from the provincial level totownships and municipalities.

·制定全国性的规则，促进从省级政府向城镇和市政府更均衡的收入分配。

Conclusion

结论

Over the next two decades, Chinawill face many challenges in its quest to become a modern and creative highincome society.

未来二十年，中国在努力成为现代化和具有创造力的高收入社会的进程中会遭遇诸多挑战。

One is how to urbanize.

其中之一是如何推进城镇化。

And, if China can removedistortions in the land, labor, and capital markets; align incentives with responsibilitiesin the fiscal system; and increase competition across its economy, China willhave addressed more than half of the challenges in urbanization.

而且，如果中国能够消除土地、劳动力和资本市场的扭曲现象；在财政制度上使激励与职责相一致；在整个经济中加强竞争，中国就已经解决了半数以上的城镇化挑战。

China’s urbanization could raiseand equalize living standards across the vast territory if the nature and formof urbanization are such that they fulfill the objectives of economicefficiency, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability.

只要城镇化的性质与形式符合提高经济效率、加强社会凝聚力和推动环境可持续性的目标，中国的城镇化就能提高全国各地的整体生活水平和实现均等化。

If done right, urbanization inChina will be an engine of growth in the 21st century.

只要做法正确，中国的城镇化就会成为二十一世纪的增长引擎。

There is an underlying vision toall of this:

所有这一切都建立在一个基本的愿景上：

•A prosperous China.

·一个繁荣昌盛的中国；

•A China with a harmoniousbalance between cities and countryside.

·一个城乡和谐均衡发展的中国；

•A China that extends onecitizenship to every woman and man, boy and girl, no matter where they wereborn and where they live.

·一个赋予每个女人和男人、男童和女童——无论在何处出生和成长——同一公民身份的中国；

•A China where everyone lives hisChinese dream, where effort and labor are fairly rewarded, and where everyoneis treated equally and enjoys equal access to basic healthcare, schooling,social entitlements, and jobs.

·一个每个人都能实现自己的中国梦、努力和劳动得到公平回报、每个人都受到平等对待、享有基本医疗、教育、社会保障和就业机会均等的中国。

The World Bank is privileged tosupport these challenging reforms in close partnership with Chinesecounterparts.

世界银行很荣幸与中国合作伙伴密切配合为应对这些充满挑战性的改革提供支持。

Thank you.

谢谢各位。