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一位听众来信询问三个表达 “猜测” 的单词 “guess”、“speculate” 和 “surmise” 的区别。这三个词在作动词时都具有 “猜测，推测” 的意思，但语气的正式程度有所不同。而 “speculate” 在作名词时还应变为 “speculation”。听节目，学习这三个词在用法上的异同。

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（关于台词的备注: 请注意这不是广播节目的逐字稿件。本文稿可能没有体现录制、编辑过程中对节目做出的改变。）

Buli
大家好，欢迎收听本期的 “你问我答” 节目。I'm Buli.

Phil
And I'm Phil. We have a question from one of our listeners.

Question
请问 “speculate”、“guess” 和 “surmise” 怎么区别？

Phil
This is another question about words that are very close in meaning. All of these words are about how to deal with not having all the information to know something for certain.

Buli
是的。这个问题提到了三个和 “猜测” 这个行为有关的动词：“speculate”、“guess” 和 “surmise”。首先，让我们来看看其中最常见的 “guess”。“Guess” 可以用来表达 “猜测，推测” 这个意思，它既可以作动词也可以作可数名词。比如，我们可以说 “let me guess” 或者 “let me take a guess”，它们的意思都是 “让我来猜一猜”。

Phil
So, if you make a guess about something – it's usually when you actually say the thing you think, or hope is true. An 'educated guess' is when you have some information, and a 'total, complete or absolute guess' is when you have no information at all. Listen to these examples.

Examples
Is the correct answer a), b), or c)? I'm going to guess it's b). But, I have no idea, so it's a complete guess.
（正确的答案是 a、b 还是 c 呢？我猜是 b。但我一点思路也没有，所以这纯粹是个猜测而已。）

I don't know how long the job is going to take, but I'm going to make an educated guess at around three hours.
（我不知道这项工作需要花多长时间，但我根据经验猜测大约需要三小时。）

Buli
在上面的例句中出现了两个包含名词 “guess” 的常见表达。“A complete guess” 强调 “一个完全没有根据或证据的猜测”；而 “an educated guess” 的意思是 “基于经验或知识的、有所依据的猜测”。

Phil
'Guess' as a verb can also mean to say the correct answer without having had all the information beforehand. If someone says 'you guessed it!' they mean that you got it right.

Buli
是的。“Guess” 作动词时不但可以表示 “猜测”，还可以表示 “猜对了正确答案”。来听一组例句。

Examples
The biggest city in the world? You guessed it! It's Tokyo.
（世界上最大的城市是哪个？你猜对了！是东京。）

They asked us who we thought would finish first, and I guessed it straightaway.
（他们问我们认为谁会第一个完成比赛，我一下就猜对了。）

Phil
The other way we can use 'guess' is informally to mean 'think' or 'believe'. Listen to these examples.

Examples
I guess we should leave early tomorrow to beat the traffic.
（我想我们明天得早点出发才能避开堵车。）

The train is going to be quicker, I guess.
（我觉得坐火车应该会更快一些。）

Buli
接下来让我们看看 “speculate”。和 “guess” 相比，“speculate” 的意思更接近 “推测”，强调 “在经过思考过程后对一件事情的答案进行猜测”。在日常生活中，这两个词常常可以互相替换使用。

Phil
Notice however that while 'guess' is both a verb and a noun, here we have two different forms – 'speculate' as the verb and 'speculation' as the noun. Also 'speculate' and 'speculation' can be a bit more formal than 'guess'. Let's hear some examples.

Examples
I'm just speculating, but I think your plan will be cheaper.
（我只是猜测一下，但我觉得你的计划会更省钱。）

We can speculate what colour dinosaurs were, but we'll never know for certain.
（我们可以猜测恐龙是什么颜色的，但我们永远无法确定。）

Buli
和可数名词 “guess” 不同的是，“speculation” 既可以用作可数名词也可以用作不可数名词。英语中更常用 “speculation” 作不可数名词来表达 “缺少根据的猜测或推测”，特别是 “人群中大量或普遍存在的猜测”。来听两个例句。

Examples
Speculation was growing about which actor was going to be revealed as the star of the new film.
（关于哪位演员将成为这部电影的主角的猜测甚嚣尘上。）

It's just a speculation, but I think our next set of sales figures will break all records.
（这只是我的一个猜测，但我认为我们的下一批销售数据会打破所有的记录。）

Buli
最后，我们来看看 “surmise”。这个单词和 “guess” 一样，既可以作名词也可以作动词，意思是 “推测，猜度”。不过和 “guess” 和 “speculate” 都不同的是，“surmise” 强调 “根据推测得出了结论”，而非推测这个动作本身。

Phil
Probably the most notable thing about 'surmise', when choosing which word to use, is that it is the most formal of these words. Let's listen to how it can be used as a verb.

Examples
The detective surmised that the robbers would now be far away from the crime scene.
（侦探推测抢劫者现在应该已经远离犯罪现场了。）

As I walked on to the platform, I surmised that I would be waiting for some time.
（当我走到站台上的时候，我就推测我得等上一段时间了。）

Buli
在用作名词时，“surmise” 通常仅用于书面或非常正式的场合。来听一组例句。

Examples
The doctor's conclusion was just a surmise, but it felt plausible.
（医生的结论只是一个推测而已，但是听起来很有道理。）

Our surmise is that this year will be incredibly productive.
（我们的推测是今年将是卓有成效的一年。）

Buli
总的来说，“guess”、“speculate” 和 “surmise” 都可以作动词表示 “猜测，推测” 的意思，但它们强调的重点和正式程度有所不同。而名词 “guess”、“speculation” 和 “surmise” 的用法之间则有着较大的差别，在使用时需要斟酌。

Phil
Remember, if you have a question that you'd like us to answer, you can email us too at questions.chinaelt@bbc.co.uk

Buli
你也可以通过微博向我们提问。我们的微博账号是 “BBC英语教学”。Bye!

Phil
Bye!