切勿以经济后果吓唬苏格兰人

2014-09-25 14:38:38来源：可可英语

　　Last week, financial markets began to take seriouslythe possibility that Scotland might vote Yes toindependence. A constitutional change wouldraise the possibility of three types of market risk:currency risk, government credit risk and the creditrisk associated with financial institutions.

　　上周，金融市场开始认真考虑苏格兰公投结果支持独立的可能性。苏格兰身份的改变可能导致三类市场风险：货币风险，政府信用风险，与金融机构有关的信用风险。

　　The position on currency is today a stand-off. TheScottish government has said it will negotiate acurrency union and the Westminster government has said it will not enter such negotiation.But Edinburgh cannot unilaterally establish a currency union and the Westminster governmentcannot unilaterally determine Scotland’s currency. Plainly there must be agreement. However,might this agreement leave people who had made deposits or loans in sterling at risk of beingrepaid in Scots bawbees of doubtful value?

　　货币问题目前陷入了僵局。苏格兰政府已表示，将通过谈判与英国其余地区建立货币联盟，而英国政府已放话将不会参加这样的谈判。但苏格兰政府无法单方面建立货币联盟，英国政府也无法单方面决定苏格兰采用何种货币。显然双方必须达成协议。然而，这份协议有没有可能会让以英镑存款或放贷的人面临这样的风险：交出去的是英镑，收回来的却是大把大把价值有疑问的苏格兰半便士(bawbee)?

　　As the eurozone discovered, establishing a currency union is easy, operating one is hard andunwinding one is hard. You can pass legislation saying all contracts made in drachmas arenow payable in euros; but legislation saying contracts made in euros are now payable indrachmas is another matter. To which contracts does the latter apply? However the question isresolved, the answer will hurt many businesses and individuals, and occupy the courts.

　　如欧元区所发现的那样，货币联盟是建立起来容易，管理和解散难。你可以立法，宣布所有以德拉克马(drachma，希腊在加入欧元区之前使用的货币——译者注)为货币单位订立的合同如今可用欧元支付;但立法宣布以欧元订立的合同现在可用德拉克马支付就是另一回事了。后一种安排适用于哪些合同?无论这个问题得出何种答案，都将伤及不少企业和个人的利益，并导致大量法律诉讼。

　　But there is a simple answer in the Scottish case, which is that whatever happens after a newcurrency is adopted, existing contracts in sterling remain in sterling. This means there is nocurrency risk ahead of a change. The same answer is not possible for Greece because the pointof a Grexit would be to enable the country to default on its debts and effect a largedevaluation, a course unnecessary and unwise for Scotland.

　　但就苏格兰的情况而言，有一个简单的答案，那就是无论采用新货币后发生什么，既有的以英镑订立的合同仍将以英镑结算。这意味着，在苏格兰变更身份前不会存在货币风险。同样的答案不可能适用于希腊，原因是希腊退出欧元区的意义，就在于能对其债务违约和使其货币大幅贬值，这种做法对苏格兰而言则既无必要也不明智。

　　British government stocks tumbled last week when opinion polls showed the campaigns neckand neck – perhaps because markets did not know what to make of the news, perhaps becauseof the Scottish government’s threat to renege on its share of UK debt. But, even if the Scotsdid so, this would add less than 10 per cent to the debt servicing cost of the rest of the UK –which, at about 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product, is hardly unaffordable.

　　上周民调显示，苏格兰支持和不支持独立的人数旗鼓相当，英国国债随之暴跌。这或许是因为市场不知如何理解这个消息，原因或许是苏格兰政府威胁不偿还自己承担的那份英国国债。但即便苏格兰人真的这样干了，也只不过会让英国其余地区的偿债成本增加不到10%——相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的约2.5%——这并不是无法负担的。

　　There is little justification for believing a Scottish exit, on whatever terms, should affect thecredit rating of the remaining UK: what repudiation would do to Scotland’s credit rating is adifferent matter. It is one thing to start life as a new country debt free, another to do sobecause you have just reneged on a pro rata share of UK debt of £100bn.

　　我们几乎找不到什么理由认为，苏格兰独立(无论以何种条件独立)会影响英国其余地区的信用评级;至于赖债会对苏格兰的信用评级造成何种影响，那就是另一回事了。作为一个新国家，以无债务负担的状态开始新生活是一回事，靠拒不偿还按比例应承担的1000亿英镑英国国债而达到这种状态，则是另一回事。

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