投资者应区别对待新兴市场国家

2014-11-06 18:53:40来源：网络

　　At the same time developed markets are growing more slowly. Worryingly, the US “will nolonger be the consumer of first resort for emerging markets, given its improvedcompetitiveness and reduced energy dependence”, notes Shweta Singh, senior economistat Lombard Street Research. Also the cost of credit in the world is rising, making Asian-styledebt-fuelled growth more expensive. Financial conditions are tightening for emerging marketcompanies as spreads widen and local currencies drop.

　　另一方面，发达市场的增长正变得更加缓慢。朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)的高级经济学家什韦塔•辛格(Shweta Singh)指出，令人担忧的是，美国“将不再是新兴市场的首要消费者，因为美国的竞争力提高了，对能源的依赖下降了”。此外，全球信贷成本正在升高，也推高了亚洲那种债务驱动型增长的成本。随着息差扩大、本币贬值，新兴市场企业的资金环境正在趋紧。

　　Still, the impact of big macro trends differs among countries. For example one of MorganStanley’s favourite currency trades these days is to go long on the Indian rupee against theIndonesian rupiah. The Morgan Stanley trade partly reflects the beneficial effect that falling oilprices have on India’s current account and inflation, as well as the two countries’ differingdependence on US dollar funding. But, more profoundly, the trade reflects a general reversalin the relative fortunes of commodity importers and exporters. That reversal is taking placeagainst a backdrop of a slowing China, which in turn is leading to lower demand for coal, iron,and oil.

　　不过，这一重大宏观趋势对不同国家产生的影响并不相同。例如，近期摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最青睐的外汇交易之一，是做多印度卢比、做空印尼盾。这在一定程度上反映出了油价下跌对印度经常账户和通胀产生的有益影响，还反映出这两个国家对美元融资的依赖程度不同。但意义更为深刻的是，该交易反映出了大宗商品进口国与出口国之间命运对比的总体逆转。这一逆转的大背景是：中国经济增长放缓，导致煤炭、铁和石油需求降低。

　　In large part thanks to lower oil prices, India’s current account deficit is at its lowest in sixyears. By contrast Indonesia’s deficit more than doubled to 4.3 per cent of GDP in the secondquarter. A more benign environment could lead to a sustained virtuous circle in India, inwhich lower inflation promotes a stable currency and makes it possible in turn for the centralbank to cut interest rates.

　　主要得益于油价降低，如今印度的经常账户赤字处于6年来的最低水平。相比之下，印尼今年二季度的赤字增加了一倍多，达到了国内生产总值(GDP)的4.3%。更有利的大环境可能导致印度出现持久的良性循环——通胀水平降低有助于维持币值稳定，进而为印度央行降息提供可能性。

　　India has already accumulated a sizeable war chest of about $315bn in reserves, comparedwith about $110bn for resource-rich Indonesia. And India is far less reliant on US dollarfunding. Indonesia depends on foreigners to take 37 per cent of the debt issued in its local debtmarket. “Soft commodity prices, an uncomfortable current account deficit and rising realinterest rates have conspired to drive Indonesia’s GDP growth down from a peak of 6.5 per centto a lower growth channel of 5.0-5.5 per cent for 2014-2016,” Morgan Stanley says.

　　印度已积攒下了规模可观的外汇储备，金额约为3150亿美元。与之相比，资源富国印尼的外汇储备为1110亿美元左右。另外，印度对美元融资的依赖程度要低得多。而印尼在国内债市发行的债务，37%被外资买走。摩根士丹利表示：“在疲软的大宗商品价格、令人头疼的经常账户赤字以及不断升高的实际利率的共同作用下，印尼的GDP增长率已从6.5%的峰值下滑至较低的增长通道，2014至2016年的年增长率将为5.0%至5.5%。”

　　Divergence and relative shifts in fortunes are also likely in Latin America. Mexico appears tohave stronger short-term prospects than Brazil or Chile, since 80 per cent of its exports go tothe US, Ms Singh adds. A strong dollar also helps Mexico. But a world where emergingmarkets are battened on by their rich neighbours is unlikely to return.

　　这种分化和相对命运的转换很可能也会出现在拉美。辛格补充道，墨西哥的短期前景看来要强于巴西或智利，因为墨西哥对美出口占该国总出口的80%。美元坚挺也帮助了墨西哥。但是，那个新兴市场靠其富裕邻国发迹的时代很可能一去不复返了。

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