"僵尸银行"将成欧洲最新经济刺激行动中的定时炸弹

2014-06-24 11:03:49来源：可可英语

　　Few are talking about the second, more troubling measure announced by the ECB on Thursday. The central bank will attempt to link proportionally all the free money the ECB has been lending to the banks, plus some more with a new acronym, to how much the banks lend out to the public. The more money banks lend, the more cash they get from the ECB.

　　而对于欧洲央行上周四宣布的第二种更麻烦的方式，鲜有人讨论。欧洲央行将尝试把它借给这些银行的免费资金以及类似资金与这些银行放贷给公众的金额挂钩。这些银行放贷数额越多，它们从欧洲央行获得的现金就越多。

　　But by placing conditions on that money, the ECB could effectively deny much-needed capital to banks in need. These so-called “zombie” banks are the ones that lost tons of money during the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis and are alive today because of the lending life support they have received from the ECB.

　　但通过对这些钱设定条件，欧洲央行实际上可以拒绝这些银行急需的资本。这些所谓的“僵尸”银行在金融危机和主权债务危机中损失了大量的钱，如今随着它们从欧洲央行获得贷款支持，它们又活了过来。

　　This new policy risks upsetting that balance and would expose the weak banks in the system based on lending capacity. Those banks that, for whatever reason, aren’t lending could be identified as zombies. Investors could then end up running away from these banks in horror, exacerbating the capital shortfall at these half-dead banks.

　　这个新政策的风险在于，它可能打破平衡，按放贷能力将系统中的弱势银行暴露在风险之中。无论什么原因，不进行放贷的那些银行被视为“僵尸”。投资者最终将惊恐地逃离这些银行，加剧这些半死不活的银行存在的资本短缺问题。

　　So in instituting this policy, Draghi is betting that eurozone banks are now strong enough to keep an adequate amount of capital on hand to meet the required 10% eurozone bank capital minimum; continue buying sovereign bonds to prop up the euro; cover the losses associated with the various busted investing bubbles still haunting the continent; lend out just enough capital to “stimulate” growth; and make enough profit to make it all worthwhile.

　　因此，德拉吉在制订这项政策时认定，欧元区银行手头有充足的资本，能满足欧元区银行10%的最低资本金要求;能继续购买主权债以支撑欧元;能弥补仍然困扰着欧洲的各种投资泡沫破裂所产生的损失;有足够的资本进行放贷以“刺激”经济增长;能赚取足够的利润使之值得尝试。

　　Are European banks ready for this?

　　欧洲银行为这些做好准备了吗?

　　Some are, but many are not. They still have billions of euros in unrecognized losses sucking up all their capital. That’s the real reason why banks aren’t lending — they can’t. Trying to force them to do so by creating disincentives doesn’t seem like it is going to do much. If anything, it could backfire as it would expose the zombies. Nothing kills confidence like a rash of bank failures.

　　有些银行准备好了，但很多银行并没有。它们仍旧有数十亿欧元的未确认损失在蚕食它们的资本金。这是银行不进行放贷的真实原因——它们没法放贷。试图通过设置阻碍迫使它们这么做，看来不会起多大作用。如果有什么作用的话，可能也事与愿违，因为这会暴露这些僵尸银行。没有比银行纷纷倒闭更能打击市场信心的事了。

　　It is doubtful the ECB will stand by and watch banks collapse; it can pull these policies at any time. But all this highlights just how difficult it has become to get Europe back on the road to real economic recovery.

　　欧洲央行是否会袖手旁观，看着这些银行倒闭，这一点令人怀疑;欧洲央行随时可以收回这些政策。但所有这些都凸显了，让欧洲走回经济真正复苏的正轨有多么困难。

　　If the ECB really wants to get the economy going, it needs to start from the bottom and build its way back up. The first step would be to recapitalize its zombie banks. Lending cash to these institutions on a short-term basis just isn’t cutting it–they need equity. That means allowing the banks to actually recognize the losses they have carried for years so that they can raise equity on the open markets. Whatever capital the banks can’t raise in the open markets, they could receive from the ECB or some national government, perhaps Germany (it doesn’t matter).

　　如果欧洲央行真的想让欧洲经济继续发展，它应当从下而上，逐步实施。第一步是僵尸银行资本重整。向这些机构短期借贷现金并不解决问题——它们需要股本。这意味着这些银行实际上切实承认它们多年来承担的损失，以便能在公开市场筹集股本。它们不能在公开市场上筹集的资本，不论是多少，都可以从欧洲央行或一些国家政府获得，也许是德国(无所谓)。

　　This isn’t economic rocket science. It’s what the U.S. government did with its banks following the credit crisis. This policy (TARP) successfully reset the banks back to zero, giving them time to lick their wounds and organically start lending again. Eventually, the government sold their stakes in the banks back to the public (mostly at a profit), but it took several years to get there–but they got there. Now the U.S. has a growth rate that is three times greater than that of the eurozone.

　　这并不是什么经济火箭科学。这就是美国政府在信贷危机之后为美国的银行系统所做的事情。这项问题资产救助计划(TARP)最终成功地让银行回到了起点，让它们有时间愈合伤口，并从内部开始再次进行放贷。最终，美国政府将手头持有的银行股份卖给公众(且大多盈利)。虽然需要几年的时间来实现，但它们最终还是实现了。如今，美国的经济增长率是欧元区经济增长率的4倍。

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