解读新一轮全球范围内的资产抛售

2014-08-14 18:38:02来源：可可英语

　　On the financial front, Argentina’s debt default highlighted the extent to which today’ssovereign debt regimes are sensitive to the disruptive influence of intransigent minorityholdout creditors facing entrenched governments.

　　在金融方面，阿根廷债务违约突显出，在政府根基稳固的情况下，当前主权债务体制对拒不妥协的少数不合作债权人所带来的破坏性影响是多么的敏感。

　　Meanwhile, economic data out of Europe accentuated concerns about the region’s weakrecovery. And, on the policy side, more hawkish statements from a growing number of USFederal Reserve officials raised questions about the central bank’s resolve to continue itssteadfast support for markets and the economy.

　　与此同时，欧洲发布的经济数据加剧了人们对该地区经济复苏疲弱的担忧。从政策方面来说，越来越多的美联储(Fed)官员发表了更具有鹰派色彩的声明，这让人对美联储继续毫不动摇地支持市场和经济的决心产生怀疑。

　　Having already rallied beyond levels easily validated by underlying fundamentals, markets wereno longer able to ignore the compounding risks of such a set of factors. The result was ageneralised retreat with virtually no place to shelter other than cash and true cash equivalents;or, at least, no shelters readily accessible to many investors. (Professionals could protect theirportfolios using both short positioning and insurance, via credit default swaps, though manyloathe the costs and risks these entail.)

　　市场已经上涨至基本面所能支持的水平以上，它们不再能够忽视这一系列因素累积的风险。结果是除了现金和真正的现金等价物以外，几乎所有资产类别都无法抵御市场的全面下挫。或者最起码来说，许多投资者都无法轻易地避险(专业人士可能利用空头头寸和通过信用违约互换(CDS)保险机制来保护他们的投资组合，尽管许多人厌恶这些工具必然带来的成本和风险)。

　　The breakdown in traditional correlations among different asset classes renders such a sell-offeven more unsettling, potentially triggering investor reactions that compound the initialadverse market moves. Over the years I have found two tools particularly helpful forunderstanding these reactions.

　　不同资产类别之间的传统关联被打破，导致此类抛售更令人担忧，有可能让投资者做出加剧最初不利的市场走势的反应。多年来，我发现两个工具尤其有助于理解这些反应。

　　Behavioural insights

　　行为金融和柠檬理论

　　The first comes from behavioural finance, which reminds us that certain characteristics, suchas natural herding tendencies and destabilised framing mindsets, encourage subsequentmarket overshoots. Second, the “Markets for Lemon” hypothesis formulated by George Ackelofin 1970 explains why information asymmetry and signalling problems expose both strong andweak securities to large market sell-offs notwithstanding quite large differences in theirfundamentals.

　　首先是行为金融，它提醒我们，某些特征，比如天生的羊群倾向和破坏稳定的框架思维，鼓励了随后的市场过度反应。其次，乔治•阿克洛夫(George Ackelof)在1970年提出的“柠檬市场”假说解释了为何信息不对称和信息传递问题让证券无论优劣都受到市场大幅抛售的影响，尽管这些证券的基本面存在巨大的差异。

　　These insights are likely to prove particularly relevant given the extent to which the priorperiod of volatility repression by central banks has induced investors to leverage positionsand, in the process, compress a host of risk premia (including credit, default, equity liquidityand volatility). At the same time there is little appetite among broker-dealers to warehouserisk. Indeed, rather than serving as a shock absorber, their current approach to balance sheetmanagement initially amplifies market overshoots.

　　鉴于各国央行前期大力抑制波动性，从而诱使投资者举债增加头寸，并在此过程中压缩一系列风险溢价水平(包括信贷、违约、股票流动性和波动性)，这些观点可能尤其具有重要意义。与此同时，经纪自营商几乎没有承担风险的想法。实际上，它们当前的资产负债表管理方式最初放大了市场过度反应，而没有对冲击起到缓和的作用。

　　All this should also worry western policy makers. Because of political problems that preclude acomprehensive policy approach, they have been forced to rely on asset markets as theconduit for attaining their growth and employment objectives. As such, the higher theprobability of generalised market sell-offs, the greater the risks to financial stability and thewellbeing of Main Street.

　　所有这些也应该让西方政策制定者感到担心。由于政治上的问题，他们无法实施全面的政策手段，只能被迫把资产市场作为实现增长和就业目标的通道。就此而言，市场全面抛售的可能性越高，金融稳定性和普通民众福利面临的风险就越大。

本文关键字: 解读新一轮全球范围内的资产抛售