分析Space X公司面对的最大挑战

2014-09-09 11:10:58来源：可可英语

　　This all makes for a good story, but what about that multimillion-dollar valuation? Can SpaceXturn the hype into cold, hard profit? The commercial spaceflight industry is a highlycompetitive, immensely capital-intensive environment saturated by the world’s largest andmost respected legacy aerospace firms. For that reason, SpaceX’s biggest challenges layahead. Here’s a look at what the firm faces.

　　仅凭这些素材足以撰写一篇精彩的报道，但上百亿美元的估值是怎么回事呢?Space X公司能否把这些神乎其神的吹捧变成硬邦邦的利润?毕竟，商用航天是一个竞争激烈、资本高度密集的产业，长期以来一直由全球最大也最受尊敬的传奇航空航天公司所把持。正是出于这种原因，Space X未来还将面临巨大挑战。下面就让我们逐一分析这些挑战：

　　Opportunity. Before September is over, NASA will make a decision on which one, possibly two,of three different spacecraft it will select to be the federal agency’s new crew vehicle forferrying astronauts to destinations in orbit such as the International Space Station. The winnerof that contract is looking at $800 million for spacecraft development up front and anaccumulated award of billions of dollars by the time the spacecraft enter service sometime in2017. SpaceX is in the hunt alongside Boeing and Sierra Nevada Corp. A win for SpaceX wouldguarantee SpaceX a revenue stream from NASA and certainly wouldn’t hurt its R&Defforts. It would also be another big endorsement from the world’s premier space agency.

　　机遇。最迟到九月底，美国宇航局就将从三种不同飞船中选择一种，也可能是两种，作为这家联邦机构的新型载人飞行器，这些飞行器将把宇航员送往国际空间站这样的轨道目的地。赢得这份合同的公司将获得8亿美元预付款，用于飞船的前期研发，到2017年飞船交付使用时，还将获得数十亿美元的收益。Space X、波音公司及内华达山脉公司(Sierra Nevada Corp)都有机会赢得这份合同。如果Space X胜出，就能确保从美国宇航局获得稳定收入，也会让它的研发投入不至于付诸东流。这也是全球顶级航空机构对其实力的又一次意义重大的背书。

　　Reliability. SpaceX has thus far managed to retain a strong record of reliability, evencorrecting near-mishaps mid-mission in some cases. However, over the weekend it lost a testrocket (which, in SpaceX’s defense, is what test rockets are for) at its test facility in Texas anddelayed a rocket launch scheduled for Tuesday in the interest of extra caution. It’s far from thefirst time SpaceX has delayed a launch. “I think one thing that could tilt the market away fromSpaceX is if it can’t launch when it says it’s going to launch,” says Kate Maliga, an industryanalyst at aerospace and defense consultancy Tauri Group. “Most of the money in satellites isin the services they provide, so you need your satellite up there to make money. That’s thebiggest risk.” Managing that risk and maintaining a regular launch schedule is imperative.

　　可靠性。迄今为止，就可靠性而言，Space X一直设法保持着良好的记录，甚至还在几次发射过程中纠正了即将发生的事故。但上周末，该公司却在其德克萨斯州试验基地损失了一枚试验火箭(公司辩解称，这正是试验火箭的用途)，同时出于多一份谨慎的原则，推迟了本定于周二进行的火箭发射。这远不是Space X第一次推迟发射了。航空和国防咨询公司金牛座集团(Tauri Group)的行业分析师凯特o马丽嘉表示：“我认为，如果Space X表示自己准备发射，实际上却没能成功发射，它就将损失市场份额。卫星的大部分价值在于它提供的服务，所以必须让卫星始终在轨道上运行才能挣钱。这就是最大的风险所在。”管理好这一风险并保持有规律的发射计划至关重要。

　　Scalability. Launching rockets isn’t the kind of thing a company can do every single day—thereare limited launch windows and a limited amount of infrastructure in the world capable oflaunching them. To continue on its current trajectory, SpaceX has to scale. A new dedicatedlaunch facility at Boca Chica Beach on the Texas-Mexico border—it already launches from CapeCanaveral in Florida—will offer greater capacity to launch independent of other factors beyondits control. But SpaceX will also have to scale its rocket production capacity while maintainingits record of reliability and safety, making this arguably the company’s biggest test goingforward. “If they can get up to eight [launches this year] that’s great,” Maliga says. “They saythey’ll do 10 to 15 per year, and if they get to that point that would be quite a threat.”

　　规模化。一个公司不可能每天都发射火箭——全球各地的发射时间和基础设施都非常有限。而如果要保持目前的发展轨迹，Space X公司就要实现规模化。一个位于博卡奇卡海滩(Boca Chica Beach，地处德州和墨西哥边境)的全新发射装置——该公司已经在佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角建立了发射装置——将提供更大的发射能力，不再受到无法掌控的其他因素影响。但在保持可靠性和安全记录的同时，该公司还必须提高火箭的生产能力，从而使这项据称是该公司的最大试验得以继续进行。马丽嘉称：“如果公司今年能发射8次，那就很棒了。他们说今后每年能发射10到15次，真能这样的话，那肯定会对其他对手构成重大威胁。”

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