欧元区成员国该如何应对经济挑战

2014-10-08 16:44:49来源：可可英语

　　At Jackson Hole Mr Draghi stated he is “confident” that the package of measures announcedin June and now being implemented will deliver the “intended boost to demand”. It isreasonable to be sceptical. In the six years to the second quarter of 2014, nominal demandrose a mere 2 per cent. Credit channels remain impaired. Fiscal policy also continues to tighten,even though interest rates are at the zero bound: the OECD has forecast that the cyclicallyadjusted fiscal deficit of the eurozone would shrink from a mere 1.4 per cent in 2013 to aneven more austere 0.9 per cent in 2014. Huge divergences in competitiveness remain. Theseare more difficult to rectify when inflation is so low. This is forcing vulnerable countries intodeflation, which raises the real level of their debt. Meanwhile, creditworthy core countries areblack holes for demand: this year Germany’s current account surplus might be as big as 8 percent of gross domestic product.

　　德拉吉在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上指出，他“确信”，今年6月宣布、目前已在实施的一揽子措施将会对“需求产生预期中的提振”。人们有理由对此感到怀疑。在截至2014年第二季度的6年里，名义需求仅增长2%。信贷渠道仍未恢复健康。财政政策也继续收紧，即便利率接近于零：经济合作组织(OECD)预测，2014年，经周期性调整后，欧元区财政赤字与GDP的比率将从2013年的1.4%进一步收缩至0.9%。欧元区各国竞争力依然存在显著差异。在通胀水平如此低的时期，这些问题更加难以解决。它正使那些容易遭受冲击的欧元区国家陷入通缩，提高了它们的实际负债水平。与此同时，信用程度高的欧元区核心国家成为需求“黑洞”：今年德国经常账户盈余可能高达GDP的8%。

　　Last week the ECB promised to purchase a broad portfolio of “simple and transparent asset-backed securities”. This, it hopes, will improve credit intermediation inside the eurozone. Italso hopes that, through this and other programmes it has announced, it will be able toexpand its balance sheet back to where it was two years ago. This makes sense. It was anerror to let it shrink by about 10 per cent of eurozone GDP when other central banks, withconsiderably smaller problems than the eurozone’s to deal with, were avoiding prematurewithdrawal of such support (see chart). Moreover, the range of measures taken reinforcethe ECB’s forward guidance. It has locked itself into ultra-accommodative monetary policiesfor years, as it should.

　　欧洲央行近期承诺购买“简单透明的资产支持证券(ABS)”的宽泛组合。它希望，这将改善欧元区内部的信用媒介。它还希望，通过该购债项目和其他已经宣布的项目，欧洲央行将能够将资产负债表的规模扩大至两年前的水平。这很明智。之前，在其他央行(它们的问题远小于欧元区要处理的问题)正避免过早退出此类支持之际(见图表)，让欧洲央行资产负债表规模收缩相当于欧元区GDP的10%则是错误的。此外，欧洲央行出台的一系列措施强化了其前瞻性指引的效力。欧洲央行多年来坚持极度宽松的货币政策，它理应如此。

　　Yet, despite all these actions, the interlocking problems of the eurozone are unlikely to beresolved soon. Indeed even the ECB forecasts no more than feeble growth ahead. So, shouldthe ECB do more? And what, above all, do other policy makers need to do in support?

　　然而，尽管采取了所有这些行动，欧元区错综复杂的问题也不太可能在短期内得到解决。实际上，即便是欧洲央行也预计未来最多只会温和增长。那么，欧洲央行应该出台更多举措吗?最重要的是，其他政策制定者需要提供什么样的支持?

　　The immediate question is whether the ECB should begin a programme of outrightquantitative easing by buying government bonds, presumably in proportion to shares ofmember countries in eurozone GDP. In a blog post in July, senior officials of the InternationalMonetary Fund argued that such QE would be effective. It would, they argued, reinforce thecredibility of the ECB target and have important effects on the prices of financial assets,including bonds and equities, and probably on exchange rates, too.

　　一个迫在眉睫的问题是，欧洲央行是否应该购买政府债券——假设按照成员国占欧元区GDP的比重来购买——从而启动直接量化宽松政策?国际货币基金组织(IMF)的高官们在今年7月的一篇博文中指出，此类QE将是有效的。他们说，这将让欧洲央行的目标更加可信，并对包括债券和股票(很可能还有汇率)在内的金融资产价格产生重要影响。

　　I agree that it should be tried. The current situation is too dire for policy makers to eschewsuch a valuable instrument. But declines in bond yields have already been so dramatic thatQE’s effects would no longer be as startling as they would have been two years ago.Furthermore, it is clear that the ECB would be taking on credit risk. It would be charged withmonetary financing of governments. I believe it should go ahead. But the row betweennorthern and southern Europe would surely be deafening.

　　我赞同欧洲央行应该尝试量化宽松。对政策制定者来说，当前局势极为严峻，因此不可避免地要动用这项非常有用的工具。但债券收益率已经大幅下降，QE将不再有两年前那么令人惊艳的效果。此外，欧洲央行显然将会承担信用风险。它将因为对政府进行货币融资而受到指责。我认为欧洲央行应该推出QE。但欧洲南北之间的争吵肯定会白热化。

　　What else is left? One possibility, suggested in Mr Draghi’s speech, is active use of fiscal policy.Ideally, there should be a mixture of higher public investments and lower taxes, particularly incountries with room for fiscal manoeuvre. The overall fiscal stance is too tight, with a deficitforecast by the OECD at just 2.5 per cent of GDP in a deep slump. In return, as Mr Draghidemands, countries need to embrace serious reforms, to raise supply potential – and, bystimulating investment, demand as well. A determination to use all instruments possible toraise demand, enhance supply potential and improve competitiveness, where necessary, isclearly where the eurozone must try to go. The new European Commission needs to take astand for common sense and growth, instead of insisting on misery yet again.

　　此外还可以采取什么举措?从德拉吉的演讲中可以看出，一个可能是积极运用财政政策。理想的做法应该是增加公共投资和减税并行，尤其是在仍有财政调整空间的国家。财政立场总体而言过于紧缩——经合组织预计，在发生深度衰退的情况下，财政赤字与GDP的比率也将仅为2.5%。正如德拉吉所要求的那样，欧元区各国需要大力改革，以提高供给潜力，以及通过刺激投资来促进需求。德拉吉决心在必要时动用一切可用工具来扩大需求、增强供给潜力和提高竞争力，这显然正是欧元区必须努力做到的事情。新一届欧盟委员会(EuropeanCommission)需要维护常识和增长，而不是再次坚持吃苦政策。

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