双语阅读英语外刊精讲：金山(附音频)

2018-10-22 10:45:54来源：酷学英语

　　It is easy to see why investors are keen. Billions of users are tied into these firms' social-media networks, digital assistants, operating systems and cloud-computing platforms. The five firms are squeezing traditional competitors such as IBM and Macy's. Together they make $100bn of profits. Analysts forecast this will rise to $170bn by 2020. The rebels of Silicon Valley have evolved into slick moneymaking machines with high market shares. For investors it just doesn't get any better.

　　Old-economy oligopolists, such as cable, telecoms and beer companies, are confident about their ability to extract reliable rents from customers, so they finance themselves largely with debt, which is cheap but inflexible, and return most of the cash they make to shareholders. Yet, oddly, the biggest tech firms have the opposite approach. Together they have $330bn of net cash (cash less debt), a ratio of twice their gross cashflow.

　　Maybe if the tax code is reformed the great cash build up will end. The most mature firms, Apple and Microsoft, would make a large one-off return of cash to shareholders. Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook would adopt sensible frameworks for returning cash to shareholders as their profits soar.

　　But perhaps these firms love their giant insurance policy. Imperious on the outside, inside they may worry about obsolescence and regulation. Anti-trust authorities are getting hostile. Only five years ago Facebook and Google were struggling with the shift from desktops to devices. Both depend on advertising for over 85% of sales. Apple's health depends on its latest iPhone, Amazon has thin margins and Microsoft's profits have yet to rise.

　　If earnings do soar as forecast, the big-five tech firms could be plotting giant acquisitions of media, car or hardware firms, to diversify away from their core business. But they may simply be uneasy that profits will not rise as high as Wall Street now expects. Either way, the $330bn safety blanket that lets Silicon Valley sleep at night should lead investors to keep one eye open.

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