Study: Part of Antarctica to Experience ‘Unavoidable’ Melt

2023-10-26 17:37:09来源：网络

　　Study: Part of Antarctica to Experience ‘Unavoidable’ Melt

　　美国之音特别英语-研究:南极洲的一部分将经历“不可避免的”融化

　　By Gregory Stachel

　　25 October 2023

　　A new study says that no matter how much the world cuts back on carbon emissions, a large and important part of Antarctica is expected to disappear.

　　Researchers used computer models to predict the future melting of protective ice around Antarctica's Amundsen Sea in western Antarctica. They said the "unavoidable" melting will take hundreds of years. It will slowly add nearly 1.8 meters to sea levels. And it will be enough to reshape where and how people live in the future.

　　The study was published recently in Nature Climate Change. It found that even if future warming was limited to just a few tenths of a degree more, it would have "limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet."

　　This undated image provided by British Antarctic Survey, shows the North Cove, in Antarctic. (Michael Shortt/British Antarctic Survey via AP)

　　Many scientists say the goal of just a few tenths of a degree of warming is unlikely to be met.

　　"Our main question here was: How much control do we still have over ice shelf melting? How much melting can still be prevented by reducing emissions?" said study lead writer Kaitlin Naughten. She is an expert on oceans at the British Antarctic Survey.

　　She said their research suggests that Earth is set on the path to a quick increase in the rate of ocean warming and ice shelf melting over the rest of the century.

　　While past studies have talked about how serious the situation is, Naughten was the first to use computer modeling to study how warm water from below will melt the ice.

　　The study looked at four different cases in how much carbon emissions the world produces. In each case, ocean warming was just too much for this area of the ice to survive, the study found.

　　Naughten looked at melting, floating areas of ice that hold back glaciers. Once these areas of ice melt, there is nothing to stop the glaciers behind them from flowing into the sea.

　　The study also looked at what would happen if future warming was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius over mid-19th century levels: the international goal. They found the runaway melting process in this case as well.

　　The world has already warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and much of this summer went past the 1.5 degrees mark.

　　Naughten's study looked at the part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is most at risk from melting from below, near the Amundsen Sea. It includes the very large Thwaites ice shelf that is melting so fast it is called "the Doomsday Glacier."

　　That part of Antarctica "is doomed," said University of California Irvine ice scientist ice scientist Eric Rignot. He was not part of the study. He added, "The damage has already been done."

　　Naughten does not like to use the word "doomed," because she said 100 years from now, the world might not just stop but drive back carbon levels in the air and climate change. But she said what is happening now on the ground is a slow collapse that cannot be stopped, at least not in this century.

　　I'm Gena Bennett.

　　Seth Borenstein reported this story for The Associated Press. Gregory Stachel adapted the story for VOA Learning English.

　　英译中：

　　作者:格雷戈里·斯塔切尔

　　2023年10月25日

　　一项新的研究表明，无论世界减少多少碳排放排放南极洲的很大一部分将会消失。

　　研究人员使用计算机模型预测了南极洲西部阿蒙森海周围保护冰的未来融化。他们说“不可避免的”融化将需要数百年的时间。它会慢慢地使海平面上升近1.8米。这足以重塑人们未来的生活方式。

　　这项研究最近发表在自然气候变化。它发现，即使未来的变暖被限制在仅仅增加零点几度，它也将“有限地阻止海洋变暖，海洋变暖可能导致南极西部冰盖的崩溃。”

　　这张未标明日期的照片由英国南极调查局提供，显示的是南极的北湾。(迈克尔·肖特/美联社英国南极调查局)

　　许多科学家表示，气温升高零点几度的目标不太可能实现。

　　“我们的主要问题是:我们对冰还有多少控制力架子融化？通过减少排放还能防止多少融化？”该研究的首席作家Kaitlin Naughten说。她是英国南极调查局的海洋专家。

　　她说，他们的研究表明，在本世纪剩下的时间里，地球将走上海洋变暖和冰架融化速度快速增加的道路。