Study: Africa Unlikely to Expand Manufacturing

2023-11-02 16:01:44来源:网络

Study: Africa Unlikely to Expand Manufacturing

研究:非洲不太可能扩大制造业

原文听力

  By Gregory Stachel

  01 November 2023

  A recent study says African countries are less likely to follow East Asia's development model of expanding manufacturing to reduce poverty.

  The study predicts a decreasing share of factory jobs for most countries by 2050.

  The Center for Global Development (CGD) released the study this week. It said there will be fewer factory workers around the world in 2050. And the paper predicts that, even in poor countries with a lot of low-cost labor, manufacturing job growth will slow down.

  China may be an exception out of the 59 countries modeled in the study. The study said that China will continue to expand its share of manufacturing to 43.8 percent in 2050 from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975.

  The study's writers said that China will continue its strong manufacturing performance, producing higher-valued products.

  This might create some space for developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South and Central America to start producing the products China will no longer produce. However, it will not be enough for other countries to follow the same development path taken by East Asia in expanding manufacturing.

  Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake of CGD said that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services. They say jobs will greatly expand in services because of new technologies – even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia.

  "There's still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests that's not going to happen," said Kenny. He said people think that farms are going to empty out across Africa and Asia in the coming years, but he said, people are likely to flood into offices and stores, not factories.

  The study projects worldwide growth through the year 2050. It aims to predict changes in the economies of 59 countries that make up about three quarters of the world's GDP and population.

  GDP, or gross domestic product, measures all the goods and services produced in a country in a year. GDP is considered a good measure of the size of a nation's economy.

  The study projects that even for the lowest-income countries, the number of factory jobs will just keep up with population growth over the next 30 years. And it projects manufacturing will likely stay a small part of most of these countries' economies.

  Across all low-income countries, manufacturing jobs are projected to remain below eight percent of total employment. The study projects the share of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to fall, to 8.3 percent by 2050 from 11.4 percent currently.

  Jobs in private service industries are expected to make up 37 percent of worldwide jobs by 2050, and 26 percent in low-income countries. That is up from about 12 percent currently.

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  作者:格雷戈里·斯塔切尔

  2023年11月1日

  最近的一项研究表明,非洲国家不太可能遵循东亚的发展模式,即扩大制造业以减少贫困.

  该研究预测,到2050年,大多数国家的工厂工作份额将会下降。

  全球发展中心(CGD)本周发布了这项研究。报告称,2050年全球工厂工人将会减少。该报告预测,即使在拥有大量低成本劳动力的贫穷国家,制造业就业增长也将放缓。

  中国可能是一个例外在这项研究模拟的59个国家中。该研究称,中国将继续扩大其制造业份额,从2018年的30%和1975年的10.5%增至2050年的43.8%。

  该研究的作者表示,中国将继续其强劲的制造业表现,生产更高价值的产品。

  这可能会为非洲、东南亚、南美和中美的发展中国家创造一些空间,让它们开始生产中国不再生产的产品。然而,对于其他国家来说,仅仅跟随东亚在扩大制造业方面所走的发展道路是不够的。

  CGD的Charles Kenny和Ranil Dissanayake说,许多国家将直接从农业转向服务业。他们表示,由于新技术的出现,服务业的就业岗位将大幅增加——甚至在孟加拉国和埃塞俄比亚等国家也是如此。

  “仍然有一种流行的观点认为,低收入国家将会自然进步主导由农业转向制造业主导的增长,但是增加证据表明这是不可能的,”肯尼说。他说,人们认为未来几年非洲和亚洲的农场将会空空如也,但他说,人们可能会涌入办公室和商店,而不是工厂。

  这项研究项目到2050年的全球增长。它旨在预测占世界GDP和人口四分之三的59个国家的经济变化。

  GDP或国内生产总值衡量一个国家一年生产的所有商品和服务。国内生产总值被认为是衡量一个国家经济规模的良好尺度。

  这项研究预测,即使是在收入最低的国家,未来30年,工厂工作岗位的数量也只能跟上人口的增长。it部门预计,制造业可能仍将是这些国家经济的一小部分。

  在所有低收入国家,制造业就业岗位预计将保持在总就业岗位的8%以下。该研究预计,高收入国家的制造业就业份额将继续下降,到2050年将从目前的11.4%降至8.3%。

  到2050年,私营服务行业的工作岗位预计将占全球工作岗位的37%,在低收入国家占26%。这比目前的12%有所上升。

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  这个故事中的词语

  poverty – n. 贫穷的状态

  exception – n. 与众不同的人或事物

  dominate – v. 成为(某事物)最重要的部分

  mounting – v. 数量增加

  project –v.对未来一段时间的事情进行估计或预测


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