2023 Likely to Be Warmest Year in Recorded History

2023 Likely to Be Warmest Year in Recorded History

2023年可能是有史以来最热的一年

【原文听力】

----------------------------------------------------------------------

　　By Bryan Lynn

　　08 November 2023

　　European researchers say a very hot October has put 2023 on a likely path to become the warmest year in recorded history.

　　Last month, world temperatures beat a 2019 record for warmest October on record by 0.4 degrees, scientists from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service announced. The EU agency issues monthly reports on climate observations across Europe.

　　The latest October record nearly guarantees that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, said Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess. "The amount that we're smashing records by is shocking," Burgess told The Associated Press (AP).

　　Scientists have long linked rising world temperatures to gases from the burning of fossil fuels. El Nino has also been warming ocean waters this year.

　　El Nino is a warming of surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. The event usually causes hot, dry weather in Asia and Australia and can drive weather changes in other parts of the world.

　　The World Meteorological Organization has predicted the El Nino weather pattern will last until at least April 2024.

　　Michael Mann is a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. He told the AP that most El Nino years now become record-breakers because that climate event combines with rising temperatures linked to human causes.

　　A warmer planet means more extreme and intense weather events like severe drought or hurricanes that hold more water, said Peter Schlosser. He is vice president of the Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University. Schlosser was not involved with the Copernicus report.

　　"We better take this warning that we actually should have taken 50 years ago or more and draw the right conclusions," Schlosser said. He added that this means the world should expect more records to be broken as a result of that warming. But he questions whether the changes will come in smaller steps going forward.

　　Schlosser noted Earth was already reaching temperatures above the 1.5 degrees Celsius target limit established by the Paris agreement on climate change. He said the latest observations are another sign there is an urgent need for action to help stop planet-warming pollution.

　　"It's so much more expensive to keep burning these fossil fuels than it would be to stop doing it. That's basically what it shows," said Friederike Otto. She is a climate scientist at Imperial College London. "And of course, you don't see that when you just look at the records being broken and not at the people and systems that are suffering," Otto said. "But that... is what matters."

　　The findings from Copernicus come three weeks before a United Nations meeting in the United Arab Emirates capital of Dubai, known as COP28. Delegates from nearly 200 countries will attend the gathering. They are seeking to negotiate stronger action to fight climate change.

　　I'm Bryan Lynn.

　　The Associated Press and Reuters reported on this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the reports for VOA Learning English.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

　　布莱恩·林恩

　　2023年11月8日

　　欧洲研究人员表示，炎热的10月让2023年有可能成为有史以来最热的一年。

　　欧盟哥白尼气候变化服务机构的科学家宣布，上个月，世界气温比2019年有记录以来最热的10月高出0.4度。欧盟机构每月发布欧洲气候观测报告。

　　哥白尼中心副主任萨曼莎·伯吉斯说，最新的10月份记录几乎可以保证2023年将是有记录以来最热的一年。“我们打破记录的数量令人震惊，”伯吉斯告诉记者美联社(美联社)。

　　长期以来，科学家们一直将全球气温上升与燃烧温室气体联系在一起化石燃料。今年厄尔尼诺现象也使海水变暖。

　　厄尔尼诺现象是太平洋东部和中部的表面温度变暖。这一事件通常会导致亚洲和澳大利亚出现炎热干燥的天气，并会推动世界其他地区的天气变化。

　　世界气象组织预测厄尔尼诺天气模式将至少持续到2024年4月。

　　迈克尔·曼是宾夕法尼亚大学的气候科学家。他告诉美联社，大多数厄尔尼诺年现在成为破纪录者，因为这种气候事件与人类原因导致的气温上升相结合。

　　一个更温暖的星球意味着更多极端和强烈的天气事件干旱或者是容纳更多水的飓风，彼得·施洛瑟说。他是亚利桑那州立大学全球未来实验室的副主席。施洛瑟没有参与哥白尼的报告。

　　“我们最好接受这个50年前甚至更早就应该接受的警告画右翼结论，”施洛瑟说道。他补充说，这意味着世界应该期待更多的记录因气候变暖而被打破。但他质疑这些变化是否会一步一步来。

　　施洛瑟指出，地球的温度已经超过了《巴黎气候变化协定》设定的1.5摄氏度的目标上限。他说，最新的观察是另一个迹象，表明迫切需要采取行动来帮助阻止全球变暖的污染。

　　“就这么多了昂贵的继续燃烧这些化石燃料比停止燃烧要好。这基本上就是它所显示的，”弗里德里克·奥托说。她是伦敦帝国理工学院的气候科学家。当然，当你只看记录被打破，而不看遭受痛苦的人和系统时，你看不到这一点。若非...才是最重要的。"

　　哥白尼的发现是在联合国在阿拉伯联合酋长国首都迪拜召开COP28会议的三周之前。来自近200个国家的代表将参加这次聚会。他们正寻求协商更强有力的行动来对抗气候变化。

　　我是布莱恩·林恩。

　　美联社和路透社报道了这个故事。布莱恩·林恩为美国之音学习英语改编了这篇报道。

----------------------------------------------------------------------

　　这个故事中的词语

　　fossil fuels – n. 煤、石油或天然气等燃料，是由死去的植物或动物在地球上形成的

　　drought – n. 很少下雨或不下雨的一段长时间

　　draw a conclusion (about something) – 情况的事实并对其是否真实、正确、可能发生等作出决定。

　　expensive – adj. 昂贵的