Study: Extreme Dry Condition in Syria, Iraq, Iran due to Climate Change

Study: Extreme Dry Condition in Syria, Iraq, Iran due to Climate Change

研究：由于气候变化，叙利亚、伊拉克、伊朗出现极端干旱状况

【原文听力】

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

　　By Gregory Stachel

　　12 November 2023

　　A three-year drought has left millions of people in Syria, Iraq, and Iran with little water. A new study says it would not have happened without human-caused climate change.

　　The west Asian drought started in July 2020. The new study found that it is mostly because hotter-than-normal temperatures are evaporating the little rainfall that fell.

　　The study is by a team of international climate scientists at World Weather Attribution, a group that researches extreme weather events.

　　Friederike Otto, an Imperial College of London climate scientist, is the lead writer of the study. She said that without the world warming 1.2 degrees Celsius since the mid-19th century, "it would not be a drought at all."

　　It is a case of climate change unnaturally intensifying naturally dry conditions into a humanitarian crisis that has left people without food, water, and housing, the study says.

　　Other scientists have yet to confirm if the methods used in this study are correct, in a process called peer review. But it follows scientifically correct methods to look for the signs of climate change.

　　The team looked at temperature, rainfall, and moisture levels. And they compared what happened in the last three years to many different computer models of the conditions in a world without human-caused climate change.

　　"Human-caused global climate change is already making life considerably harder for tens of millions of people in West Asia," said study co-writer Mohammed Rahimi. He is a professor of climate studies at Semnan University in Iran. "With every degree of warming Syria, Iraq and Iran will become even harder places to live."

　　Computer models did not find any considerable signs of climate change in the reduced rainfall, which was low but not too rare, Otto said. But evaporation of water in lakes, rivers, wetlands, and soil "was much higher than it would have been" without climate change-increased temperatures, she said.

　　The study writers found that the drought conditions in Syria and Iraq are 25 times more likely because of climate change, and in Iran, 16 times more likely.

　　Kelly Smith of the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center in Nebraska, who was not part of the study, said the research made sense.

　　Drought is not unusual to the Middle East area. And conflict, including Syria's civil war, makes the area even more likely to have a drought because of weakened water systems, said study co-writer Rana El Hajj. She is with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center in Lebanon.

　　"This is already touching the limits of what some people are able to adapt to," Otto said. She said as long as we keep burning fuels that affect climate change and give out new permits to explore new oil and gas fields, these kinds of events will only get worse. She added that this will continue to destroy lives and keep food prices high.

　　She said, "And this is not just a problem for some parts of the world, but really a problem for everyone."

　　I'm Gregory Stachel.

　　Seth Borenstein reported this story for The Associated Press. Gregory Stachel adapted the story for VOA Learning English.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

　　作者：格雷戈里·斯塔切尔

　　日期：2023年11月12日

　　一场为期三年的干旱使叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗的数百万人面临水资源短缺。一项新的研究表明，如果没有人为的气候变化，这种情况不会发生。

　　这场西亚干旱始于2020年7月。新的研究发现，这主要是因为高于正常的温度使得降下的少量降雨蒸发。

　　这项研究是由世界天气归因组织的一支国际气候科学家团队完成的，该组织研究极端天气事件。

　　伦敦帝国学院的气候科学家弗里德里克·奥托是这项研究的主要作者。她表示，如果没有世界自19世纪中叶以来的1.2摄氏度的升温，“根本就不会有干旱。”

　　其他科学家还未确认这项研究所使用的方法是否正确，这个过程被称为同行评审。但它遵循科学正确的方法寻找气候变化的迹象。

　　该团队研究了温度、降雨量和湿度水平。他们将过去三年发生的情况与许多不同的计算机模型进行了比较，这些模型模拟的是没有人为气候变化的世界的条件。

　　“人为的全球气候变化已经使西亚的数千万人的生活变得更加困难，”研究的合著者、伊朗塞姆南大学的气候研究教授穆罕默德·拉希米说。“随着每一度的升温，叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗将变得更加难以居住。”

　　奥托表示，计算机模型在降雨减少（虽然较少，但并不罕见）的情况中并未发现任何显著的气候变化迹象。但她说，湖泊、河流、湿地和土壤中的水分蒸发“比没有气候变化导致的温度增加时要高得多”。

　　研究作者发现，由于气候变化，叙利亚和伊拉克的干旱条件可能性增加了25倍，伊朗增加了16倍。

　　美国内布拉斯加州国家干旱缓解中心的凯利·史密斯，虽然并未参与这项研究，但他表示这项研究是有道理的。

　　研究合著者、黎巴嫩红十字会红新月会气候中心的拉娜·艾哈吉表示，干旱对于中东地区并不罕见。包括叙利亚内战在内的冲突，由于削弱了水系统，使该地区更有可能发生干旱。

　　奥托说：“这已经触及了一些人适应的极限。”她说，只要我们继续燃烧影响气候变化的燃料，并发出新的许可证去探索新的石油和天然气田，这些事件只会变得更糟。她补充说，这将继续破坏生活，使食品价格保持高位。

　　她说：“这不仅仅是世界某些地方的问题，实际上是每个人的问题。”

　　我是格雷戈里·斯塔切尔。

　　这个故事是由塞思·博伦斯坦为美联社报道的。格雷戈里·斯塔切尔为美国之音学习英语改编了这个故事。

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

　　这个故事中的词汇：

　　drought – n. 长时间几乎没有或没有雨水的时期。

　　humanitarian – adj. 描述一个事件或情况，导致或涉及大量的人类痛苦，尤其是需要向大量人提供援助的情况。

　　moisture – n. 一小部分液体（如水）使某物湿润。

　　global – adj. 涉及全世界。

　　adapt – v. 改变你的行为，使其更容易在特定的地方或情况下生活。