New Argentine’s President Must Deal with Inflation, Weak Economy

New Argentine’s President Must Deal with Inflation, Weak Economy

新任阿根廷总统必须应对通货膨胀和疲弱的经济

【原文听力】

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　　By Dan Novak

　　20 November 2023

　　Libertarian Party politician Javier Milei has won Argentina's presidential election with 56 percent of the vote.

　　Now President-elect Milei must face the South American country's economic problems.

　　Inflation has been measured at over 140 percent. The country lacks foreign currency for international trade, people who aim to save are selling the Argentine Peso, and a recession appears likely. About 40 percent of Argentines live in poverty.

　　Milei is promising to close Argentina's central bank. He also supports dollarization. Dollarization means Argentina would stop using its peso and instead use the U.S. dollar for money.

　　Milei won a second-round of voting on Sunday with about 56 percent against opponent Sergio Massa's 44 percent.

　　Now he will try to turn around the economy once he takes office on December 10. Failure could lead to the country's tenth debt default, increased poverty, and possible social unrest.

　　Inflation

　　Argentina's high inflation rate creates huge problems in its markets and for consumers. Prices change weekly. Economic experts predict a yearly rate of 185 percent inflation by the end of the year.

　　To reduce inflation, Argentina's central bank has increased the interest rate to 133 percent, which pushes people to save Argentine pesos. However, this move makes it too costly to borrow money and hurts economic growth.

　　Peso controls

　　Capital controls have harmed the value of Argentina's peso since a stock market crash there in 2019. However, different exchange rates for currencies of other nations have led to problems. For example, the U.S. dollar's official exchange rate is about 350 pesos per dollar, but news reports say it can trade for a far higher price under different controls.

　　Milei has promised to quickly undo capital controls and to dollarize the country's economy.

　　Central bank reserves

　　Argentina's central bank reserves of foreign currency are near their lowest level since 2006. A major drought affected the exports of important crops like soy, corn, and wheat, which used to bring in enough foreign exchange money.

　　Low reserves threaten the country's ability to repay its debts to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and private bondholders. It will also be difficult to pay for imported goods.

　　The government has agreed on an extended currency swap with China to help enable it to carry out foreign trade. Argentina also had to delay some payments to important trade partners like neighboring Brazil.

　　Recession

　　Argentina is Latin America's third-largest economy. But it is expected to shrink by two percent this year, the central bank predicted. The recession is partly being blamed on the drought that cut corn and soy crops in half.

　　With very high inflation, poverty will likely increase as workers' pay and savings decrease.

　　Possible improvement

　　Argentina, rich in important grains, natural gas, and lithium, could see an increase next year as improved weather helps crops. A new gas pipeline will reduce dependence on costly imports, and demand is rising for the lithium needed for electric vehicle batteries.

　　Soy and corn are expected to have stronger harvests, which will bring in much-needed foreign currency.

　　Eugenio Marí is head economist at Libertad y Progreso Foundation. He said agriculture and oil and gas from rocks, called shale, can help the economy. The "harvest will help bring a greater flow of income in the economy, as will the greater production of (shale oil formation)," he said.

　　I'm Dan Novak.

　　Dan Novak adapted this story for VOA Learning English based on reporting by Reuters.

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　　作者：丹·诺瓦克

　　日期：2023年11月20日

　　自由党政治家哈维尔·米莱以56%的选票赢得了阿根廷的总统选举。

　　现在，候任总统米莱必须面对这个南美国家的经济问题。

　　通货膨胀率已经超过140%。该国缺乏进行国际贸易的外汇，希望储蓄的人们正在出售阿根廷比索，而且很可能会出现经济衰退。大约40%的阿根廷人生活在贫困中。

　　米莱承诺要关闭阿根廷的中央银行。他还支持美元化。美元化意味着阿根廷将停止使用其比索，而改用美元作为货币。

　　米莱在周日的第二轮投票中以约56%的票数击败了对手塞尔吉奥·马萨的44%。

　　他将在12月10日上任后尝试扭转经济局势。如果失败，可能会导致该国第十次债务违约，贫困加剧，甚至可能出现社会动荡。

　　通货膨胀

　　阿根廷的高通胀率给其市场和消费者带来了巨大的问题。价格每周都在变动。经济专家预测，到今年年底，年通胀率将达到185%。

　　为了降低通胀，阿根廷的中央银行已将利率提高到133%，这推动了人们储蓄阿根廷比索。然而，这一举措使得借款成本过高，从而伤害了经济增长。

　　比索控制

　　自2019年阿根廷股市崩盘以来，资本管制已经损害了阿根廷比索的价值。然而，对其他国家货币的不同汇率导致了问题。例如，美元的官方汇率大约是每美元350比索，但新闻报道称，在不同的管制下，它可以以更高的价格交易。

　　米莱承诺将迅速取消资本管制，并将该国的经济美元化。

　　中央银行储备

　　阿根廷的中央银行外汇储备接近2006年以来的最低水平。一场大旱影响了大豆、玉米和小麦等重要作物的出口，这些作物过去曾带来足够的外汇收入。

　　低储备威胁到该国偿还给国际货币基金组织（IMF）和私人债券持有人的债务的能力。支付进口商品也将变得困难。

　　政府已经同中国达成了一项扩大货币互换的协议，以帮助其进行外贸交易。阿根廷还不得不推迟向像邻国巴西这样的重要贸易伙伴的一些付款。

　　经济衰退

　　阿根廷是拉丁美洲第三大经济体。但中央银行预测，今年其经济预计将缩水2%。这场经济衰退部分归咎于旱灾，旱灾使玉米和大豆作物减产一半。

　　由于通胀率极高，随着工人的工资和储蓄减少，贫困可能会增加。

　　可能的改善

　　阿根廷拥有丰富的重要粮食、天然气和锂资源，明年可能会看到增长，因为天气的改善有助于作物生长。新的天然气管道将减少对昂贵进口的依赖，而电动车电池所需的锂的需求正在增加。

　　预计大豆和玉米将有更好的收成，这将带来急需的外汇。

　　尤金尼奥·马里是自由与进步基金会的首席经济学家。他表示，农业和页岩油气可以帮助经济。他说：“收成将帮助经济带来更大的收入流，页岩油的生产也将如此。”

　　我是丹·诺瓦克。

　　丹·诺瓦克根据路透社的报道为美国之音学习英语改编了这个故事。

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　　本故事中的词汇

　　default — v. 未能偿还债务

　　consumer — n.购买商品供个人使用的人

　　drought — n.长时间内极度缺乏降雨

　　swap — v. 通过协议将一件事物换成另一件事物

　　income — n.从工作、投资或税收中获得的钱