In 2024, More Than 60 Nations to Hold National Elections

In 2024, More Than 60 Nations to Hold National Elections

2024年，超过60个国家将举行全国选举

【听力音频】

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　　By Dan Novak

　　11 January 2024

　　2024 will go down as one of the most politically important years in history. More than 60 countries will hold national elections representing half of the world's population.

　　Here is a look at six of the year's most important elections.

　　United States

　　The U.S. presidential election looks to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The two front-runners have very different opinions on America's place in the world. The results in November's race may decide how tough the U.S. will be on China, Russia and other international rivals.

　　Joseph S. Nye Jr. is the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense. He told VOA that Trump's "America First" position is attempting to bring isolationism back in foreign policy. That could leave U.S. allies in a difficult position as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars continue.

　　"On Russia," Nye said, "Trump is likely to be more favorable to Putin. That means pressure to reduce support for Ukraine is very likely."

　　As president, Biden has sent military aid packages to Ukraine and Israel, even as he faces opposition from both parties.

　　Biden is currently behind Trump in the polls in a possible rematch.

　　Russia

　　Russia will hold its presidential election in March. Following its invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, Russia has become the most sanctioned country in the world. The sanctions have harmed its economy and driven Russia closer to China.

　　Experts do not expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to lose in 2024. His top political rivals are jailed, exiled, missing or dead.

　　If Putin wins another six years, Russia will continue "the same brutal agenda in Ukraine and increasingly autocratic policies at home," said Sergey Radchenko. He is a professor of Soviet history at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

　　Experts say the level of success Putin sees in his war with Ukraine may depend on who wins the U.S. presidential election.

　　European Union

　　The European Union is heading for elections in June. Anti-immigration leaders with soft positions on Russia and China are set to push the European Parliament to the right. The Parliament, though, plays only a supervisory role in the EU.

　　European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has yet to announce whether she is running for reelection. She has shown strong support to Ukraine.

　　If reelected, von der Leyen would serve as an equalizing force in an increasingly populist European Union. She would work to balance the often-conflicting interests of different member nations with her goal of containing Russia.

　　The election results will decide is how much pushback von der Leyen's pro-Ukraine agenda will face from incoming right-wing European lawmakers. That is especially important as Ukraine gets closer to becoming an EU member nation.

　　India

　　India holds its general elections this spring. Critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling BJP party say the country's religious minorities are facing widespread persecution, or unfair treatment. Modi's Hindu nationalist agenda has gained popularity. Violence against Sikh and Muslim Indians has become increasingly common.

　　Modi's government stands accused of killing a Sikh expatriate in Canada last summer and a failed plot to kill a Sikh activist living in New York City in November. Those incidents have affected India's diplomatic ties with the West.

　　Modi has a very high approval rating among Indian voters and appears likely to earn a third five-year term. If he wins, Modi is expected to build on the relationships he has made with both Trump and Biden during his time as prime minister.

　　South Africa

　　South Africa's ruling party is at its weakest point since it came to power in 1994. The African National Congress (ANC) is at risk of losing its majority in the legislature. To stay in power, the ANC will likely be forced to form a coalition with other parties.

　　South Africa is the most industrialized nation in Africa. But with a one-third unemployment rate and power shortages across the nation, some young South Africans are turning away from the ANC.

　　Still, it is likely that the ANC will stay in charge for the next five years, said Daniel Silke. He is a South African political expert.

　　The Democratic Alliance (DA) is the largest opposition party. If the DA wins an unlikely victory, there would be "improvement in relations between South Africa and the West," Silke said.

　　Silke said the ANC remaining in power could make way for an even stronger connection between South Africa and China.

　　I'm Jill Robbins.

　　And I'm Dan Novak.

　　Gabriel Levy wrote this story for Voice of America. Dan Novak adapted this story for VOA Learning English.

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　　由Dan Novak撰写

　　2024年1月11日

　　2024年将被载入史册，成为历史上最具政治重要性的一年。超过60个国家将举行全国选举，代表了世界人口的一半。

　　以下是该年度六场最重要的选举之一。

　　美国

　　美国总统选举看起来将是现任总统乔·拜登和前总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的再次对决。这两位领先者对美国在世界中的地位有着非常不同的观点。11月的选举结果可能决定美国对中国、俄罗斯和其他国际竞争对手的强硬程度。

　　约瑟夫·S·奈尔·Jr是美国前助理国防部长。他告诉美国之音，特朗普的“美国优先”立场试图在外交政策中重新引入孤立主义。这可能会让美国的盟友在俄罗斯-乌克兰和以色列-哈马斯的战争持续的情况下处于困境。

　　奈尔说：“在俄罗斯问题上，特朗普可能会对普京更加友好。这意味着减少对乌克兰的支持的压力非常可能。”

　　作为总统，拜登已经向乌克兰和以色列发送了军事援助包，即使他面临来自两党的反对。

　　在可能的再次对决中，拜登目前在民意调查中落后于特朗普。

　　俄罗斯

　　俄罗斯将在三月举行总统选举。自近两年前入侵乌克兰以来，俄罗斯已成为世界上受制裁最多的国家。这些制裁损害了其经济，并使俄罗斯更加靠近中国。

　　专家们并不期待俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在2024年会输掉选举。他的主要政治对手已被监禁、流亡、失踪或死亡。

　　"如果普京再次赢得六年的任期，俄罗斯将继续在乌克兰执行同样残酷的议程，并在国内实施越来越专制的政策，"约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的苏联历史教授谢尔盖·拉德琴科说。

　　专家们表示，普京在与乌克兰的战争中取得的成功程度可能取决于谁赢得了美国总统选举。

　　欧洲联盟

　　欧洲联盟将在六月进行选举。持反移民立场且对俄罗斯和中国持温和态度的领导人将推动欧洲议会向右转。然而，议会在欧盟中只起着监督的作用。

　　欧洲委员会主席乌苏拉·冯·德莱恩尚未宣布是否竞选连任。她对乌克兰表示了强烈的支持。

　　如果冯·德莱恩成功连任，她将在日益民粹化的欧洲联盟中起到平衡作用。她将努力平衡不同成员国经常冲突的利益，以实现遏制俄罗斯的目标。

　　选举结果将决定冯·德莱恩的亲乌克兰议程将面临来自新上任的右翼欧洲立法者的多大反对。这尤其重要，因为乌克兰正逐渐接近成为欧盟成员国。

　　印度

　　印度将在今年春季举行大选。批评者指责总理纳伦德拉·莫迪和他的执政党人民党，称该国的宗教少数群体面临广泛的迫害或不公平待遇。莫迪的印度教民族主义议程已经获得了人气。针对锡克教和穆斯林印度人的暴力行为已经变得越来越常见。

　　莫迪政府被指控去年夏天在加拿大杀害了一名锡克教侨民，以及去年11月在纽约市试图杀害一名锡克教活动家的失败阴谋。这些事件已经影响了印度与西方的外交关系。

　　莫迪在印度选民中的支持率非常高，看起来很可能赢得第三个五年任期。如果他赢得选举，预计莫迪将在他担任总理期间与特朗普和拜登建立的关系上有所建设。

　　南非

　　南非的执政党自1994年上台以来处于最弱的状态。非洲国民大会（ANC）有可能失去在立法机构中的多数地位。为了保持在位，ANC可能会被迫与其他党派形成联盟。

　　南非是非洲最工业化的国家。但是，由于全国范围内的失业率达到三分之一，以及电力短缺，一些年轻的南非人正在转向远离ANC。

　　然而，南非政治专家丹尼尔·西尔克表示，ANC可能会在未来五年内继续执政。

　　民主联盟（DA）是最大的反对党。西尔克表示，如果DA赢得了这场不太可能的胜利，那么"南非和西方之间的关系将会改善"。

　　西尔克说，ANC的继续执政可能会为南非和中国之间建立更强的联系铺平道路。

　　我是吉尔·罗宾斯。

　　我是丹·诺瓦克。

　　这个故事由加布里埃尔·列维为美国之音撰写。丹·诺瓦克为美国之音学习英语改编了这个故事。

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　　本故事中的词汇

　　isolation — n. 处于与他人分离的地方或情况的状态

　　semiconductor — n. 允许一些电或热通过的材料或物体，特别用于电子设备

　　sovereignty — n. 对一个国家的无限权力

　　approach — n. 处理某事的方式

　　sanction — n.采取的行动或下达的命令，通过限制或停止与该国的贸易，不向该国提供经济援助等，以强制一个国家遵守国际法

　　brutal — adj.极度残忍或严酷

　　autocratic — adj. 一个拥有绝对权力的人

　　role — n. 某人或某物在特定活动或情况中的部分

　　populist — n.关于或与声称代表普通人的政党有关

　　persecute — v. 因种族、宗教或政治信仰等原因对某人进行残酷或不公平的对待

　　expatriate — n.居住在外国的人