China's Population Declines Again in 2023 2023年中国的人口再次下降

China's Population Declines Again in 2023

2023年中国的人口再次下降

【听力音频】

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　　By John Russell

　　19 January 2024

　　China announced recently that the country's mainland population fell by 2 million people in 2023.

　　This drop is the second yearly decrease in population, adding to concerns about the country's future economic growth.

　　The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China dropped by 2.08 million, or 0.15 percent, to 1.409 billion in 2023. China does a full population count, or census, every 10 years.

　　Increased deaths and decreased fertility

　　The number of deaths rose by 690,000 to 11.1 million, more than twice the increase recorded in 2022. Population experts said the aging of the population and COVID-19 outbreaks account for most of the rise.

　　But the data also suggested important information about the number of births, which fell by 540,000, or 5.6 percent. The drop was smaller than the decreases of the past three years.

　　Still, the decreasing birth rate suggests that the fertility rate is a long-term economic and societal problem for China.

　　The lower fertility rate, together with people living longer because of better health care, means China is slowly growing older.

　　Demographer Zuo Xuejin, formerly of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, estimated that the proportion of the population that is 65 or older could double to more than 30 percent by 2050.

　　These population changes could slow economic growth over time.

　　Other countries in the region also face long-term population problems. Japan's birth rate was 6.3 per 1,000 people in 2022, while South Korea's rate was 4.9.

　　"As we have observed again and again from other low fertility countries, fertility decline is often very difficult to reverse," University of Michigan demographer Zhou Yun said.

　　I'm John Russell.

　　John Russell adapted this story from Reuters and AP reports.

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　　作者：约翰·罗素

　　2024年1月19日

　　中国近日宣布，2023年该国大陆人口减少了200万人。

　　这是人口连续第二年下降，加剧了人们对该国未来经济增长的担忧。

　　国家统计局表示，2023年中国的总人口减少了208万人，或0.15%，至140.9亿人。中国每十年进行一次全面的人口普查。

　　死亡人数增加和生育率下降

　　死亡人数增加了69万，达到1110万，这是2022年记录增加的两倍以上。人口专家表示，人口老龄化和COVID-19疫情是导致这一增长的主要原因。

　　但是，数据也显示了关于出生人数的重要信息，出生人数下降了54万，或5.6%。这个下降幅度小于过去三年的下降幅度。

　　然而，出生率的下降表明，生育率是中国长期的经济和社会问题。

　　较低的生育率，加上由于医疗保健水平提高而使人们的寿命延长，意味着中国正在慢慢变老。

　　人口学家Zuo Xuejin，曾任上海社会科学院的研究员，他估计到2050年，65岁或以上的人口比例可能会翻倍，超过30%。

　　这些人口变化可能会随着时间的推移减缓经济增长。

　　该地区的其他国家也面临长期的人口问题。2022年，日本的出生率为每1000人6.3，而韩国的出生率为4.9。

　　密歇根大学的人口学家Zhou Yun说：“正如我们在其他低生育率国家反复观察到的，生育率的下降往往很难逆转。”

　　我是John Russell。

　　John Russell根据路透社和AP的报道改编了这个故事。

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　　本故事中的词汇

　　proportion – n. 占整体的一部分的数量

　　reverse – v. 撤销或抵消效果