Group: ‘Doomsday Clock’ Unchanged at 90 Seconds to Midnight

　　Group: ‘Doomsday Clock’ Unchanged at 90 Seconds to Midnight

　　组织：'末日钟'保持在距离午夜90秒的位置不变

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　　By Dan Novak

　　24 January 2024

　　A nonprofit group called Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is again bringing attention to crises around the world with its "Doomsday Clock."

　　The group describes the Doomsday Clock as a measure of the risk of worldwide disaster. On Tuesday, the group kept its "clock" set at 90 seconds to midnight, the same position as last year. The group noted Russia's nuclear weapons activities during the Ukraine war, nuclear-armed Israel's war in Gaza and climate change.

　　The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists considers midnight to be the point of total world destruction. The group says its clock is based on "existential" risks to Earth and its people. Those includes nuclear threats, climate change and technologies like artificial intelligence and new biotechnology.

　　Rachel Bronson is the Bulletin's president and CEO. She told Reuters news service that keeping the clock unchanged from the year earlier does not mean that the world is stable.

　　The group said on Tuesday that dangerous trends continue to point toward disaster. China, Russia, and the United States are all modernizing their nuclear weapons. The group said that increases the risk of a nuclear war through a mistake or misunderstanding.

　　Russia's invasion of Ukraine began nearly two years ago and has increased tensions with the West to their highest levels since the Cold War. An "end to Russia's war in Ukraine seems distant, and the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in that conflict remains a serious possibility. In the past year Russia has sent numerous worrying nuclear signals," Bronson said.

　　Bronson noted Russian President Vladimir Putin's February 2023 decision to suspend Russian involvement in the New START treaty with the United States. That treaty limited the nuclear supplies of the two countries. The United States and Russia together hold almost 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons.

　　Bronson also noted Putin's March decision to send nuclear weapons to Belarus and the Russian withdrawal of approval for a treaty banning nuclear tests. Russian expert Sergei Karaganov last year supported threatening to carry out nuclear strikes in Europe to frighten Russia's enemies.

　　Alexander Glaser of Princeton University is a member of the group's board of experts on nuclear technology and climate science.

　　"The picture is quite bleak on the nuclear side this year," he said.

　　Nuclear-armed Israel has been at war with Hamas since the Palestinian Islamist group, based in Gaza, launched attacks in southern Israel in October 2023. Bronson said the conflict risks becoming a big war in the Middle East.

　　Climate change was added as an issue affecting the clock in 2007. Bronson noted that 2023 was the hottest year on record since satellite measurement of temperatures started in 1979. She also said fossil fuel emissions continue to rise.

　　Bronson said that 2023 was a record-breaking year for clean energy with $1.7 trillion in new investments. But fossil fuel investments also totaled nearly $1 trillion. Bronson called current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions not enough. She said the results of climate change "disproportionately affect the poorest people in the world."

　　The Chicago-based nonprofit created the clock in 1947 at the beginning of the Cold War. The Bulletin was founded in 1945 by a group including scientists Albert Einstein and Robert Oppenheimer.

　　I'm Caty Weaver.

　　Dan Novak adapted this story for VOA Learning English based on reporting by Reuters.

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　　由Dan Novak于2024年1月24日撰写

　　一个名为“原子科学家公告”的非营利组织再次通过其“末日钟”引起了对全球危机的关注。

　　该组织将末日钟描述为衡量全球灾难风险的一种手段。周二，该组织将其“钟”设定在距离午夜90秒的位置，与去年相同。该组织注意到了在乌克兰战争期间俄罗斯的核武器活动，以及拥有核武器的以色列在加沙的战争和气候变化。

　　“原子科学家公告”认为午夜是全球毁灭的终点。该组织表示，其钟是基于对地球及其人民的“存在性”风险。这些风险包括核威胁、气候变化以及人工智能和新生物技术等技术。

　　“原子科学家公告”的总裁兼首席执行官Rachel Bronson告诉路透社，保持末日钟与去年相同并不意味着世界是稳定的。

　　该组织在周二表示，危险的趋势仍然指向灾难。中国、俄罗斯和美国都在现代化他们的核武器，该组织表示这增加了通过错误或误解引发核战争的风险。

　　俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵已经开始近两年了，这使得与西方的紧张关系升级到冷战以来的最高水平。"俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争结束似乎遥不可及，俄罗斯在该冲突中使用核武器仍然是一个严重的可能性。在过去的一年里，俄罗斯发出了许多令人担忧的核信号，" Bronson说。

　　Bronson提到了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在2023年2月决定暂停参与与美国的新START条约的决定。该条约限制了两国的核供应。美国和俄罗斯共同拥有世界上近90%的核武器。

　　Bronson还提到了普京在3月决定向白俄罗斯发送核武器以及俄罗斯撤回批准禁止核试验条约的决定。去年，俄罗斯专家谢尔盖·卡拉加诺夫支持威胁在欧洲进行核打击以恐吓俄罗斯的敌人。

　　普林斯顿大学的亚历山大·格拉泽是该组织的核技术和气候科学专家委员会的成员。

　　他说：“今年在核方面的情况相当严峻。”

　　自2023年10月巴勒斯坦伊斯兰主义组织哈马斯在加沙发动对以色列南部的攻击以来，拥有核武器的以色列一直处于与哈马斯的战争状态。Bronson表示，这场冲突有可能演变成中东的一场大战争。

　　气候变化在2007年被添加为影响末日钟的问题。Bronson指出，2023年是自1979年开始卫星测量温度以来的最热年份。她还表示，化石燃料排放量继续上升。

　　Bronson表示，2023年是清洁能源的创纪录年份，新投资达到1.7万亿美元。但化石燃料的投资也接近1万亿美元。Bronson称当前减少温室气体排放的努力还不够。她说，气候变化的结果“对世界上最贫穷的人影响最大”。

　　这个总部位于芝加哥的非营利组织在冷战开始时的1947年创建了这个钟。原子科学家公告在1945年由包括科学家阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦和罗伯特·奥本海默在内的一群人创立。

　　我是Caty Weaver。

　　Dan Novak根据路透社的报道为VOA学习英语改编了这个故事。

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　　这个故事中的词汇

　　doomsday — n.世界结束或被毁灭的那一天

　　existential — adj.与存在本身有关

　　stable –adj. 不太可能改变；性质稳定

　　trend –n. 变化的方向

　　bleak — adj. 没有希望

　　fossil fuel — n. 如石油、天然气和煤炭等碳燃料

　　emission — n. 释放到空气中的东西

　　greenhouse gas –n.被认为会导致大气变暖的气体

　　disproportionate — adj. 影响一方比另一方更大