​Americans Begin to Feel Better about Economy as Inflation Slows

Americans Begin to Feel Better about Economy as Inflation Slows

随着通货膨胀放缓，美国人开始对经济感到乐观

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　　By Dan Friedell

　　24 January 2024

　　Life is still more costly in the United States than it was about two years ago. But new research shows Americans are starting to feel better about the economy.

　　An opinion study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans are increasingly hopeful that the inflation rate will continue to go down. The survey also found that the number of Americans who expect their financial situation to improve within the next year is at its highest since June 2021.

　　In addition, the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers recently reported the largest two-month jump in consumer sentiment since 1991. Consumer sentiment is a measure of how optimistic consumers feel about the economy.

　　That optimism is balanced, however, by the fact that most Americans remember paying much less for daily purchases such as fuel and food only two or three years ago.

　　Many food items such as bread, milk and chicken are more costly than they were in February 2021. But economists say price increases have slowed significantly in the last year. At the same time, Americans are seeing pay increases higher than the rate of inflation.

　　The inflation rate was about 9 percent in June 2022. Today, the rate is 3.4 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve would like to see the rate at only 2 percent.

　　Grace Zwemmer is an analyst at Oxford Economics. She said it took some time for Americans to feel the effects of falling inflation. But, she said, "it appears the good news is finally getting through."

　　Political observers wonder if the change in feelings about the economy will help U.S. President Joe Biden's re-election campaign. Will people feel the drop in inflation or will they still remember that prices are much higher than they were two or three years ago?

　　Ryan Cummings is an economist who studies how politics affect consumer confidence. He said many Americans today base their feelings about the economy on what they hear from the politicians they support.

　　Cummings said Republicans are likely to speak negatively about the economic performance during Biden's presidency, even as Democrats speak of the economic gains.

　　The University of Michigan research shows consumer sentiment among Democrats jumped almost 12 percent in January. That is the second-highest increase ever.

　　Many Americans say they want to see the government take steps to bring the prices of food, oil and meat back to where they were in 2020 or 2021. But economic experts say that is not a good idea. The moves that would be required to make that happen would hurt the economy overall. Taxes could increase and jobs would be lost.

　　David Andolfatto is an economist at the University of Miami. He used to work for the Federal Reserve. He said the better idea for Americans is to "just move ahead." He explained that while the cost of living is higher than it was two or three years ago, many Americans are making more money than they were then.

　　"There's no need for (the government) to bring the price level back down. It would be too painful," Andolfatto said.

　　Claudia Sahm is another former Federal Reserve economist. She added that "people are angry" because they cannot afford the cost increases.

　　"Can you afford it?" she asked. "Not everybody can say yes to that question. But over time, more and more people will be able to say yes."

　　I'm Dan Friedell.

　　Dan Friedell adapted this story for Learning English based on a report by the Associated Press.

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　　作者：Dan Friedell

　　2024年1月24日

　　在美国，生活成本仍然比大约两年前更高。但新的研究显示，美国人开始对经济感到更乐观。

　　纽约联邦储备银行的一项民意研究发现，美国人越来越希望通货膨胀率将继续下降。该调查还发现，预计在明年内财务状况会改善的美国人数量达到了自2021年6月以来的最高水平。

　　此外，密歇根大学的消费者调查最近报告了自1991年以来最大的两个月消费者情绪跃升。消费者情绪是衡量消费者对经济乐观程度的一种指标。

　　然而，这种乐观情绪被大多数美国人记忆中的事实所平衡，即他们记得只有两三年前，日常购买如燃料和食物的价格要低得多。

　　许多食品，如面包、牛奶和鸡肉，比2021年2月的价格更高。但经济学家表示，去年价格上涨已经显著放缓。与此同时，美国人看到的工资增长高于通货膨胀率。

　　2022年6月的通货膨胀率约为9%。今天，这个比率是3.4%。美国联邦储备系统希望看到的通货膨胀率只有2%。

　　Grace Zwemmer是牛津经济学的一名分析师。她说，美国人感受到通货膨胀下降的效果需要一些时间。但她说，“看来好消息终于传达出去了。”

　　政治观察家们想知道，对经济的感觉变化是否会帮助美国总统乔·拜登的连任竞选。人们会感觉到通货膨胀的下降，还是他们仍然记得价格比两三年前高得多？

　　Ryan Cummings是一位经济学家，他研究政治如何影响消费者信心。他说，现在的许多美国人根据他们从他们支持的政治家那里听到的信息来判断对经济的感觉。

　　Cummings说，即使民主党人谈论经济的增长，共和党人也可能对拜登总统任期内的经济表现持负面态度。

　　密歇根大学的研究显示，1月份民主党人的消费者情绪跳升了近12%。这是有史以来第二高的增长。

　　许多美国人表示，他们希望看到政府采取措施，将食品、石油和肉类的价格恢复到2020年或2021年的水平。但经济专家说，这并不是一个好主意。要实现这一目标所需的举措将对整体经济造成伤害。税收可能会增加，工作岗位可能会丧失。

　　David Andolfatto是迈阿密大学的一位经济学家。他曾在联邦储备系统工作。他说，对美国人来说，更好的主意是“继续前进”。他解释说，虽然生活成本比两三年前高，但许多美国人现在赚的钱比那时多。

　　Andolfatto说：“没有必要（由政府）将价格水平降低。那会太痛苦。”

　　Claudia Sahm是另一位前联邦储备系统的经济学家。她补充说，“人们很生气”，因为他们负担不起成本的增加。

　　她问道：“你能负担得起吗？”并非每个人都能对这个问题回答“是”。但随着时间的推移，越来越多的人将能够回答“是”。

　　我是Dan Friedell。

　　Dan Friedell根据美联社的一篇报道为学习英语改编了这个故事。

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　　这个故事中的词汇

　　survey –n. 调查，民意研究

　　optimistic – adj. 乐观的，充满希望的

　　significantly –adv. 显著地，大量地

　　analyst – n. 分析师，对某一主题有深入了解并进行讨论或研究的人

　　afford –v. 负担得起，有支付某物的能力