美国《华尔街日报》记者:
总理您好。请问通货膨胀现在成为中国社会越来越突出的一个问题，高物价、高房价已经直接影响到老百姓日常的生活。那么您如何评价政府已经采取的措施呢？下一步有什么新的措施出台？在应对通货膨胀，您会不会考虑让人民币较快速度的升值？谢谢。
I’m with Wall Street Journal. Inflation has become an acutely-felt problem in China’s society. We have seen that rising commodity prices and housing prices have exerted direct impact on the day-to-day lives of the ordinary Chinese people. I would like to ask: how do you evaluate the measures that the central government has adopted to fight inflation. And what new measures will the government take to combat inflation in the future? Will the government consider letting the RMB appreciate faster in fighting inflation?
温家宝:
通货膨胀就像一只老虎，如果放出来就很难再关进去。我们目前出现的通货膨胀其实是国际性的，如果你看看整个国际的形势，由于某些国家实行量化宽松的货币政策，而造成汇率和大宗物资价格的大幅度波动。这不仅影响一个地方，就连欧洲也突破了2%。前几个月，世界粮价上涨15%，如果再加上西亚北非局势的影响，油价高企超过每桶100美元。输入型的通货膨胀对中国有很大的影响，这也是我们难以控制的。另一方面，确实在我们国内也有因为劳动力成本提高，各种初级产品价格上涨而造成的结构性通货膨胀。我们必须重视解决这些问题。我常讲通货膨胀包括物价、房价都涉及人民群众的生活，关系到他们的切身利益。因此，我们今年在政府宏观调控的各项工作中，把抑制通货膨胀摆在了第一位。
Inflation is like a tiger, once set free it will be very difficult to bring the tiger back into its cage. I believe that the current inflation we are witnessing is actually a global issue. Let’s take a look at the international environment in this respect. Some countries have pursued a quantitative easing monetary policy, and that has caused drastic fluctuations in exchange rates in some major currencies and the global commodity prices. This has not only affected one place or region in the world. Actually, we have seen an around 2% inflation rate in European countries. In the past few months, the global grain prices have risen by 15%. And the situation in some north African and western Asian countries has driven up global oil prices, and that price has hit over $100 per barrel. The important inflation has had a big impact on China and it is a factor that is not easy to control. At the same time, we have also witnessed a structural inflation in China due to rising labor cost and rising prices of primary goods. We must pay very close attention to this problem and take strong steps to address it. I have often said that inflation including rising consumer and housing prices affects the immediate interests of the people. That is why the government has given top priorities to curbing inflation for its macroeconomic control this year.
关于管好通胀预期，抑制通货膨胀所采取的措施，在我的《政府工作报告》里已经详细地讲了。我不想再过多地重复。我只是讲，对于管好通胀预期我们还是有信心的。去年11月份，我们物价高企达到5.1%。12月份，经过努力，我指的是消费物价水平降到4.6%。今年上半年是我们比较困难的时期，大概记者先生也懂得因为翘尾因素影响大。1月份，我们的CPI达到4.9%；2月份，还保持在4.9%。但你知道，2月份的翘尾因素的影响高达3.7%。对于物价，我们不敢掉以轻心。我们是从三个方面来努力管好通胀预期的。首先，要发展生产，特别是农业生产保障供给；第二，加强流通，特别是要加强农产品流通这个薄弱环节；第三，主要用经济和法律的手段管好市场。我们将持之以恒地把这项工作做到底。至于房价，我们也是三管齐下。第一，还是要控制货币的流动性。我想补充一点，对于物价这一点也是重要的，也就是说消除房价物价上涨的货币基础。第二，运用财政、税收和金融的手段来调节市场的需求；第三，加强地方政府的责任，无论是物价和房价，地方都要切实负起责任来。也就是说“米袋子”省长负责制，“菜篮子”市长负责制，房价也由地方来负主要责任。
I have explained the measures that we will adopt to control inflation and manage inflation expectations in my Government Work Report in great detail, so I will not repeat the measures here. I just want to emphasize that the government has the confidence that it will be able to anchor inflation expectations. In November last year, China’s consumer price index rose by 5.1%. With our hard efforts, we managed to bring it down to 4.6% the next month that is December last year. We still face difficult situation in the first half of this year, I’m sure that you are well aware of the carry-over effects on the CPI. In January this year, the CPI rose 4.9% and stayed at the same level in February. But we have a strong carry-over effect, standing at 3.7%. Therefore, we must not take this issue lightly. We have taken the following measures to manage inflation expectations: First, we will continue to develop production, in particular agricultural production to ensure sufficient supply; Second, we improve the distribution system, in particular we will enhance the weak links in agricultural product distribution; And third we will mainly make use of economic and legal instruments to manage the market and maintain good market order. We will continue to take persistent efforts to manage the inflation expectations. Our measures to bring down the rising housing prices are three-fold: First, we must mop up excess liquidity. That is actually important for both controlling the housing prices and the consumer prices because that will help us eliminate the monetary conditions for surging consumer and housing prices; Second, we will make use of a fiscal taxation and financial instruments to adjust market demand; And third, we must intensify the responsibility of local governments’ responsibilities for controlling consumer and housing prices. That include the governor’s provinces will take responsibility for the supply of stable foods and the mayors will be responsible for the supply of vegetables. And in terms of bringing down surging housing prices, it is the local governments that will assume the general responsibility.
你关心人民币升值问题，我可以告诉你，我们将继续坚持人民币汇率形成机制的改革不动摇。如果从1994年算起，我们大的人民币汇率改革已经进行了3次。那么现在同1994年相比，人民币的有效汇率升值57.9%。我们这次改革主要是改变单一的盯住美元，而实行根据市场需求，参照一揽子货币，实行有管理的浮动汇率制度。我们将根据市场需求的变化来进一步加大人民币浮动的弹性。但同时我们也必须考虑这种升值还是渐进的，因为它关系到企业的承受能力和就业，我们要保持整个社会的稳定。
You have a keen interest of in the appreciation of Chinese RMB. I would like to say that we will continue to pursue our reform of the Chinese RMB exchange rate regime. Actually we have taken three major steps in pushing forward this reform since 1994. And since 1994, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan has appreciated by 57.9% against the dollar. Our practice has been to de-peg the Chinese yuan from the US dollar and we pursue a managed and floating exchange rate, RMB exchange rate regime on the basis of market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. We will continue to make the RMB exchange rate more flexible in line with the changes in market supply and demand. At the same time, the appreciation of the Chinese currency should be a gradual process because we must bear in mind its impact on the Chinese businesses and our employment situation. We must ensure overall social stability in this process. Thank you!
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