A workingwoman at a sock factory in Yiwu, China. But after years of brisk business, Zhejiang province is now facing an economic slowdown. Photograph: Eugene Hoshiko/AP
中国义乌袜子厂的一名工人。繁荣经济的几年后浙江省现在面临着经济的衰退期。
The hosiery business has been good to the entrepreneurs of Datang, who rode out the 2008 crisis and recovered. But now business is slowing again – and experts fear that may presage a hard landing for the whole country.
诸暨市大唐镇的针织品行业一直很繁荣。经历了2008年的经济危机它都恢复过来了。但是现在这个行业又一次萎靡了——专家们担忧这很可能是整个国家经济衰退的一个前兆。
The foolish man built his house upon sand; the wise man built his house on a rock. The ambitious entrepreneurs of Datang chose a sturdy nylon and wool foundation. "People always need socks," points out Xu Leile, whose company clothes the feet of the British and US armies, European hikers and pampered pet dogs.
愚蠢的人将房子建造在沙子上,明智的人将房子建在石头上。大唐镇里野心勃勃的企业家选择了坚硬的尼龙和羊毛作为根基。“袜子是每个人的必需品。”徐雷乐(音译)说到。他的公司生产的衣服远销全球,英美的军队、欧洲的探险者和那些富人养的宠物狗都是产品的受益者。
Thanks to Xu and hundreds more like him, "Sock City" – north-west of Tie Town, east of Sweater Town – epitomised China"s economic success story. The obscure settlement in eastern Zhejiang province became an export-driven boomtown, producing as much as a third of the world's sock supply and thriving even through the financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent global recession.
多亏了徐和数百个和他一样的企业家,袜城——一个位于“领带”镇的西北部,“羊毛衫”镇的东部的小镇——创造了中国经济的一个成功的传说。这个浙江东部的昏暗小镇成为了一个以出口为主的经济强镇。世界袜子的三分之一由这里产出,即便是遭遇2008年的经济危机和之后的全球经济衰退,它们也繁荣依旧。
Last year, Datang made roughly two pairs of socks for every person on earth. Long and short, Argyle or polka-dotted, they cram the stores of the nearby wholesale market. In Xu's spacious new factory, the shelves are stacked with huge reels of red, blue and orange thread. But ask Xu about the future and he grimaces. "I'm very worried. This year is much worse than 2008-9," he says.
去年,平均算来,大唐镇为地球上每人约生产了2双袜子。简单一句话,他们占据了零售市场的各个商店。在徐那无比宽敞的新工厂里,架上摆满了巨大的线团,有红色、蓝色和橙色的。但是当被问到未来会怎样?他满脸愁容:我对未来很担忧。这年的形势比2008、2009那时候还要糟糕。
The biggest of his rivals to have gone under in May – the Anli Sock Group, which produced 60m pairs of socks annually – could prove to be "the Lehman Brothers of Datang", according to Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Centre.
他的主要竞争对手—安利袜业—已经在五月破产了。安利袜业之前每年生产6000万双袜子。范建平,国家信息中心的首席经济学家说到:“在大唐镇袜业里,他们俩可以说是袜业里的“莱曼兄弟”。
Failures such as Anli's and a slew of disappointing data in recent weeks are raising fears far beyond China that a slowdown in the world's second largest economy is turning into a hard landing. In the face of Europe's woes and the weak US recovery, Chinese growth has become more important than ever: the ripples are already being felt globally, with commodities analysts blaming tumbling prices on falling demand from China.
安利的失败和这几周一系列令人失望的数据正在中国引起恐慌,经济的衰退让这个世界第二大经济国面临经济的硬着陆。面临欧洲的抵制、美国经济复苏的无力、中国经济的增长比之前显得还要重要。经济的起伏全球都感受到了。商品分析人士指责价格的下降是由于对中国出口的需求减少了。
The country's premier, Wen Jiabao, has issued repeated warnings about the economy, saying growth is under pressure and exports need support. Last week's announcement of approval for infrastructure projects, which some estimate to be worth 1tn yuan (£99bn), appears to be an indication of just how alarmed authorities have become about the largely investment-driven economy.
这个国家的总理—温家宝—不断发出对经济的警告:经济增长正面临巨大的压力,需要刺激出口。上周宣布同意基础设施建设,有些人估计要达到1万亿人民币(990亿美元)这似乎是一个信号:中国政府官员对靠大规模投资驱动的经济发展模式开始有所醒悟了。
Until now, they have taken a series of milder measures, such as cutting the reserve ratio requirement and reducing interest rates, mindful of the painful hangover that resulted from the huge 4tn yuan stimulus they adopted to stave off the last crisis. That inflated property prices again and left a legacy of massive local government debt and questionable loans and infrastructure projects.
到现在为止,他们已经采取了一系列缓和措施。比如减少外汇储备率和减少存款利率。政府留心到以前投入的4万亿人民币的刺激以期望度过经济危机的计划没有奏效,反而留下后遗症,使得物价再次上涨,留给许多当地政府大批债务、有问题的借贷和基础设施工程。
China's economy saw second-quarter growth of 7.6% year-on-year: enviable to US or European eyes, but the lowest rate in three years, and the sixth straight quarter of slowing growth. Export growth slid to 1% in July – the lowest rate for three years, bar January, which was skewed by the lunar New Year holiday – and earlier this week, the official factory purchasing managers' index fell to 49.2 – the first time since November that it had dropped below the 50 barrier separating expansion from contraction.
之前中国每年总是在第二季度保持7.6%的增长,让美国或者欧洲嫉妒,但是现在这三年经济增长率是历史上最低的,已经连续六个月保持这样的缓慢增长了。但是最近三年达到最低的比例,和第六个季度的缓慢增长。出口增长率六月下降到1%——近三年来最低的增长率。
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