奥巴马在新任期内如何打造美国经济

　　The US election was fought on first principles: should government be strengthened or dismantled? The answer was resounding. The public wants better government, not less government.

　　美国总统大选是围绕着“要大政府、还是要小政府”的基本问题而展开的。选民的答案是响亮的。他们希望有更好的政府，而不希望削弱政府的角色。

　　Much of the economic debate in the US has been over short-term stimulus but the election turned on long-term structural issues. Barack Obama solidly carried much of the Midwest because he championed an industrial policy for the automobile and allied industries. What saved the Midwest was not a temporary stimulus but a skilful rescue package, complete with government financing and public investment in research and development directed at next-generation electric vehicles.

　　一段时间以来，美国经济辩论的主要议题都是短期刺激政策，但总统大选关注的则是长期的结构性问题。巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)之所以在中西部地区稳得多数支持，是因为他倡导扶持汽车及其配套行业的产业政策。拯救中西部不能靠临时刺激方案，而是要靠巧妙的一揽子救助方案，同时辅以下一代电动汽车研发方面的政府资助和公共投资。

　　Though climate change was the issue, neither candidate wanted to mention it played the leading role in the final act, in the form of Hurricane Sandy. Not only was the east coast reminded of the furies of a rising ocean level; it was reminded again of the need for collective action to anticipate, ameliorate, and respond to emergencies.

　　尽管气候变化也是一个难题，但哪位总统候选人都不愿承认，由于飓风“桑迪”(Sandy)的到来，气候变化问题其实在竞选活动的最后关头扮演了主要角色。飓风桑迪不但让东海岸居民意识到海平面的急剧上升，而且再次表明美国有必要采取集体行动，以预测和应对紧急情况，并减轻其灾害。

　　The problem for Mr Obama in the second term is that he does not yet have an economic strategy commensurate with his vision of a proactive government. Low tax revenues continue to leave the US vulnerable. The US government collected only 32 per cent of gross domestic product in revenues last year, compared with 38 per cent in Canada, 45 per cent in Germany and 49 per cent in Sweden. The latter countries can overcome budget deficits, poverty and outdated infrastructure. The US cannot. It will need a tax ratio like Canada’s by later this decade to get the job done.

　　奥巴马在第二任期的问题，是他还没有形成支撑其“积极政府”构想的经济战略。低税收仍令政府脆弱不堪。去年，美国政府税收收入仅占国内生产总值(GDP)的32%，相比之下，这一比例在加拿大是38%，在德国是45%，在瑞典则是49%。后几个国家有能力解决预算赤字、贫穷人口和基础设施老旧的问题，但美国却做不到这一点。到本10年晚些时候，美国将需要把税率提高到与加拿大相当的水平，才能解决好上述几个问题。

　　Yet revenues are not enough.

　　然而，光是提高税收也是不够的。

　　The entire Keynesian apparatus that dominates Democratic party circles is also outdated and outmoded. It is a cyclical theory trying to fit a secular (that is, long-term) structural challenge. The US needs massive overhauls of its key economic sectors, almost all of which have public and private sector components that are deeply intertwined. Aggregate demand management cannot fix excessive healthcare and college costs, broken infrastructure, or an economy based on fossil fuel that needs to be decarbonised.

　　民主党内占据主流的凯恩斯主义(Keynesian)思想也已落伍。这是一种试图应对长期结构挑战的周期性理论。美国需要大刀阔斧地整顿关键的经济部门，在这些部门中，公共成分和私人成分紧密地交织在一起。总需求管理无法解决如下难题：医疗和高校费用过高、基础设施破旧，以及目前主要消耗化石燃料的美国经济如何降低碳消耗。

　　The modern president must therefore not be the overseer of aggregate demand but the conductor of deep-seated structural changes. He should be the convener of governors, mayors, university presidents, CEOs, healthcare providers and scientists to clear the obstacles from investment programmes in energy, education, infrastructure, health and skills.

　　因此，总统不能做总需求的管理人，而要做深层次结构变革的总指挥。他应该承担召集人角色，把州长、市长、大学校长、首席执行官(CEO)、医疗服务提供商和科学家们团结起来，为能源、教育、基建、医疗和技能培训领域的投资项目扫除障碍。

　　Mr Obama’s legacy should be to foster the overhaul of the US economy. The IT revolution can and should lead to low-cost online universities, radically lower healthcare costs, smart grids, smart cities and smart low-carbon energy systems. The government can lead the way, for example, using the federally supported land-grant universities to lower the costs of higher education through IT-enabled delivery. It can truly leave no child behind – as President George W. Bush’s education reform promised – not through a naive test regime, but through upgraded pre-school programmes for poor kids, IT-enabled schools, e-tutoring, and countless other innovations already taking hold around the world but strangely lagging behind in the US.

　　奥巴马应当着力推动美国经济改革。信息技术(IT)革命能够、也应当带来低成本的在线大学教育项目、比目前低得多的医疗成本、智能电网、智能城市和智能低碳能源体系。比如，美国政府可以身先士卒，依靠联邦支持的赠地大学和IT技术降低高等教育的成本。美国政府可以做到不让一个孩子掉队——这正是前总统小布什(George W. Bush)在其教育改革方案中提出的承诺，但不能靠幼稚的考试制度，而是要靠更好的贫穷家庭儿童学前教育项目、具备IT教学能力的学校、在线辅导(e-tutoring)，以及其他已全球风行、但美国却奇怪地处于落后地位的创新手段。

　　Who will pay and who will back this new dispensation? It is easier than it looks. Wipe out the tax havens by charging a minimum 20 per cent corporate tax rate on all companies whether they book their profits in the Cayman Islands or not. Cap deductions for high-income taxpayers. Impose a modest wealth tax on the mega-rich. And tax carbon emissions and financial transactions. These measures are tough politics but good economics, and they are good revenue raisers. And they would fund a true reform agenda.

　　谁将为重整美国经济买单，谁又会成为支持者?实施办法比看起来更容易。取缔避税天堂，所有企业不论注册地在开曼群岛还是其他地方，对其盈利均适用最低20%的企业所得税税率。对高收入纳税人的扣除额设定上限。对超级富豪征收适量的财富税。对碳排放和金融交易征税。这些措施在政治上难以推行，但会有很好的经济效果，而且都是增加收入的有效途径。此外，这些措施将为真正的改革议程提供资金支持。

　　As for the governing coalition, the president need not put the fate of his reforms in the hands of Congressional holdouts and K-Street lobbyists. The business is with the people, and notably with the mayors and governors around the country. They want answers to storm surges, flooding, traffic jams, overpriced education and healthcare, and so on. They need electricity every day. This means four years of problem-solving out in the country. Yes, I’m sorry to say it, but the campaign has just begun. Yet this one is for America’s future, not for an elective office.

　　至于执政联盟层面，总统不必把改革的命运交到国会反对者和游说集团的手中。改革要依靠民众，尤其是各地的市长和州长们。他们希望解决风暴频仍、洪水肆虐、交通拥堵以及教育和医疗收费过高等问题。他们每天都需要电力供应。这表明未来四年将是一段解决问题的时期。是的，请原谅我这么说，但另一场竞争刚刚开始。不过，其目的是为了美国的未来，而不是为了争夺某一职位。