欧元区成员国该如何应对经济挑战

2014-10-08 16:44:49来源：可可英语

　　In the second quarter of this year, real domesticdemand in the eurozone was 5 per cent lower than inthe first quarter of 2008. The eurozone’sunemployment rate has risen by just under 5percentage points since 2008. In the year to July2014, consumer price inflation in the eurozone was0.4 per cent. From these telling facts one canconclude three simple things: the eurozone is in adepression; lack of demand has played a crucialrole; and the European Central Bank has failed todeliver on its own price-stability target. This is notjust sad. It is dangerous. It is folly to assume continued stability if economic performancedoes not improve.

　　与2008年一季度相比，今年第二季度欧元区实际内需下降了5%。自2008年以来，欧元区失业率上升了近5个百分点。在截止2014年7月的一年里，欧元区消费者价格指数上涨0.4%。人们可以从这些明显的事实推断出3个简单的结论：欧元区经济不景气;需求不足是关键因素;欧洲央行(ECB)未能完成其稳定价格的目标。这不仅令人遗憾，而且还很危险。如果经济表现没有改善的话，认为物价能够保持稳定是愚蠢的。

　　A necessary, though not sufficient, condition for grappling with these challenges isunderstanding them. In this regard, Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, and the one senioreurozone policy maker who shows grasp of the issues, made a vital contribution at this year’sJackson Hole symposium. Two points, in particular, need stressing. First, he stated that “weneed action on both sides of the economy: aggregate demand policies have to beaccompanied by national structural policies”. Second, he made a new promise: he remarked, offtext, that the ECB “will use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability inthe medium term.”

　　解决这些挑战的一个必要(尽管并非充分)条件是要理解它们。就这一点而言，一位对这些问题表现出深刻理解的欧元区资深政策制定者——欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在今年的杰克逊霍尔(JacksonHole)研讨会上发表了重要的言论。他所提到的两点尤其值得强调。第一，德拉吉表示，“我们需要从经济的两方面采取行动：总需求政策必须伴随着各国的结构性政策”。第二，他做出了一项新承诺：他在脱稿演讲中说道，欧洲央行“将动用一切可用工具以确保中期物价稳定”。

　　Choirs of angels must have sung over the statement that the eurozone has a problem withdemand. Hitherto, eurozone orthodoxy has treated this truth as unmentionable. No lessimportant might be the promise of action. It reminds us of the celebrated “Whatever it takes”,delivered by Mr Draghi in London in July 2012. This led to the announcement of the ECB’soutright monetary transactions programme, which defeated pervasive panic without firing ashot. Astonishingly, yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year debt have fallen from 6.3 per centand 7.0 per cent, respectively, at the beginning of August 2012, to a mere 2.3 and 2.1 per centearly this month. That is below the yield on UK gilts.

　　“天使合唱团”必定对欧元区存在需求问题的说法议论纷纷。迄今为止，欧元区的正统观点是不能提及这样的事实。同样重要的或许是关于采取行动的承诺。它让我们想起2012年7月德拉吉在伦敦说的那句著名的“不惜任何代价”。在那之后，欧洲央行宣布了“直接货币交易”(OMT)计划，从而在不费一枪一弹的情况下消除了无处不在的恐慌。令人惊奇的是，意大利和西班牙的十年期国债收益率分别从2012年8月初的6.3%和7.0%，下降至本月初的2.3%和2.1%，比英国国债的收益率还要低。

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