捉迷藏执杀刀金正恩在折腾什么

2014-11-06 18:42:48来源：网络

　　The recent disappearance of Kim Jong Un, NorthKorea’s young leader, from public view for more than40 days has stirred enormous speculation andconcern. His mysterious absence was furtheramplified by the country’s most senior militaryleader’s unexpected appearance in South Koreaalong with a high-level team to discuss the terms forrenewed North-South diplomacy. These unusualcomings and goings were the subject of feverishconjecture and rumour-mongering, with supposedexperts suggesting that the “Young Genius” waseither deposed in a coup and replaced by his sister, recovering from ankle surgery after anunfortunate fall in teetering high heels or recuperating in hiding after a disfiguring injury.Much of the more outlandish speculation seemed to be resolved by his reappearance inpublic on Tuesday last week, when he showed up in North Korean state media with anoticeable limp and black cane – perfect accessories to the already Bondish quality of hisvillainous reputation. Official television in Pyongyang offered helpfully that he had beenexperiencing “discomfort”.

　　朝鲜年轻的领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)最近从公众视线中消失了40余天，引发了大量猜想和担忧。令事态更加戏剧化的是，在他神秘失踪期间，朝鲜军方最高人物带领一支高级别团队出人意料地出现在韩国，重启南北外交。这些不同寻常的动向点燃了人们的猜测热情，导致流言四起。一些所谓的专家提出无奇不有的种种猜想：朝鲜发生了政变，“年轻的天才”已被废黜，被他的妹妹接替;穿高跟皮鞋的他不幸摔跤，接受踝骨手术后正在康复;因伤毁容后躲起来恢复。上周二金正恩公开露面之后，大部分猜想都不攻自破了。那天，金正恩明显一瘸一拐地出现在朝鲜官方媒体上，拄着黑色拐杖，跟他本来就具备的007反面人物形象十分相称。平壤官方电视台隔靴搔痒般地解释称，金正恩此前“身体不适”。

　　What are we to make of all this? The basic questions about the durability of Mr Kim’sleadership and his relationship with his closest colleagues, family and the military, togetherwith the seemingly contradictory overtures with South Korea – including calls to renewdialogue interspersed with exchanges of gunfire across the Demilitarised Zone – underscorethe many uncertainties that are intrinsic to the North Korean drama. Northeast Asia isincreasingly integral to the global economy and its economic development is critical tosustaining even lumbering global growth. However, North Korea’s continuing nuclear ambitionsand occasional provocations pose significant worries to the fragile region which is beset byinternal rivalries, historical disagreements and mutual distrust. It is no secret that relationsbetween China and North Korea have frayed recently and there are ample concerns in Beijingthat Pyongyang’s nefarious activities undermine China’s larger strategic interests. Still,fraternal Communist ties means the countries remain intertwined, although deeply distrustful ofeach other.

　　我们该如何看待这一系列事件?关于金正恩领导地位的持久性、他与他最亲密的同僚、家人和军方的关系，以及朝鲜对韩国貌似自相矛盾的态度(包括一方面呼吁重启对话，一方面又在非军事区开火)，都存在一些根本的疑问，凸显出朝鲜问题内在固有的不确定性。东北亚地区对全球经济越来越不可或缺，这一地区的经济发展对于支撑哪怕是低速的全球增长至关重要。然而，朝鲜不放弃核野心，时不时进行挑衅，令人们对这个受困于内部角力、历史分歧和互不信任的脆弱地区产生严重担忧。中国和朝鲜近来关系紧张，这已经不是秘密。北京方面很担心平壤方面的邪恶行为损害中国的整体战略利益。不过，共产党之间兄弟般的纽带意味着中朝两国仍然紧密联系在一起，尽管相互之间存在极深的不信任。

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