捉迷藏执杀刀金正恩在折腾什么

2014-11-06 18:42:48来源：网络

　　Park Gyeun-hye, South Korea’s president, has recently articulated an ambitious vision of aKorea reunited and a peaceful end to division on the peninsula. While most of her planfocuses on the hopes and benefits associated with such a reunion, there is still much worryabout the North Korean dissolution or instability that would precede such a conjoining. MostKorea watchers believe that the process of reunification would likely be deeply unsettling andexpensive, with the potential for nuclear leakage, mass refugee flows and misunderstandingsbetween the larger surrounding states.

　　韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)最近详细描述了实现韩朝统一、和平结束朝鲜半岛分裂的远大愿景。尽管她的计划大多着眼于韩朝统一的希望和好处，但人们仍然非常担心朝鲜崩溃，担心统一之前的不稳定。大多数朝鲜问题观察人士相信，韩朝统一进程很可能带来极大动荡和极高代价，还可能导致核泄漏、大规模难民潮和周围几个大邻国之间的误解。

　　Indeed North Korea is determined not to go down quietly and wishes to have a say in thedetermination of its own future. Most of the time, it creates news through its provocativeactivities – shelling islands, sinking ships and staging nuclear tests. The point to all of this isoften to create leverage to extract material concessions from the rest of the world. However,as the world has grown less patient with North Korean antics and inured to its attempts atescalating tensions, Pyongyang is left to contemplate new strategies to attract attention toitself.

　　的确，朝鲜下定决心不悄悄退出历史舞台，希望在决定其未来的过程中拥有一份话语权。大多数时候，朝鲜通过挑衅行为制造新闻——炮轰岛屿、击沉军舰、进行核试验。这一切举动的目的往往是为了制造筹码，迫使其他国家向它提供实质性的好处。然而，随着国际社会对朝鲜的花招越来越没有耐心，对其迫使紧张局势升级的企图也越来越无动于衷，平壤方面只好设计新的战略，来吸引人们对它的注意力。

　　It is not an accident that the international media has paid much attention over the past fewweeks to North Korea. Much of the informed commentary counsels that it is necessary tohave some lines of communication into Pyongyang given the many uncertainties at play. As aconsequence, Tokyo, Seoul and Washington are now establishing back channel schemes forcareful and calibrated engagement with North Korea.

　　过去几周来，国际媒体对朝鲜给予了许多关注，这并非偶然。许多有识之士建议，鉴于眼下存在的诸多不确定因素，有必要与平壤建立某种联系方式。于是，东京、首尔和华盛顿方面眼下都在建立秘密联络渠道，以求谨慎、精确地同朝方接触。

　　Thus through his temporary disappearance, Mr Kim enticed neighbouring nations to tryharder to engage with him. Ultimately, talking to antagonists is often a wise approach.However, North Korea has never been satisfied with simply talk. Its objective has always beento elicit external support to buttress the failing regime.

　　因此，通过暂时的“失踪”，金正恩诱使邻国纷纷更努力地尝试与他打交道。与敌人对话最终往往是明智之举。然而，朝鲜从未仅满足于对话，它的目标一直是获取外部支持，维系这个江河日下的政权。

　　So we await the next move from the interlocutors. Can they lure North Korea to considerpeaceful reunification or to renounce its nuclear ambitions? Or, more likely, will this simply beanother chapter in Pyongyang’s larger designs to coerce more support from the outside worldto remain relevant and live to see another tension-filled day?

　　那么，我们就拭目以待，看看有关各方接下来会走出什么棋吧。他们能不能诱使朝鲜考虑与韩国和平统一?或是放弃核武野心?抑或，可能性更大的情况是，这只不过是平壤方面使出的又一个招数，目的是从外部世界争取更多支持，以保持自身的相关性，撑到剑拔弩张的下一幕。

　　The writer is chairman and chief executive of The Asia Group and on the board of the Centerfor a New American Security. From 2009-13 he served as the assistant US secretary of state foreast Asian and Pacific affairs

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