投资者应区别对待新兴市场国家

2014-11-06 18:53:40来源：网络

　　It is hardly surprising that global growth scares hitemerging markets more powerfully than developedmarkets. By the end of last week, share prices indeveloped markets had recovered most of theirlosses, while global emerging market equities weredown 1.7 per cent and Asian markets, usually themost resilient, had dropped 0.9 per cent. Earlier inthe week emerging market assets had reacted in amore contained way, but that “reflected the factthat they had already weakened meaningfully, sopositioning was arguably lighter”, wrote analysts atGoldman Sachs.

　　全球增长放缓引发的恐慌对新兴市场造成的冲击大于对发达市场造成的冲击，这一点并不出人意料。到上周末，发达市场股市已收复了大部分失地，而全球新兴市场股市下跌了1.7%，通常最抗压的亚洲市场股市下跌了0.9%。高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师写道，本周早些时候，新兴市场资产的反应较为克制，但那“反映出一个事实：它们已然经历了幅度不小的下跌，所以头寸调整可以说不那么剧烈了”。

　　Emerging market currencies have been ailing for a while and are down more than 5 per cent forthe year. While emerging market investment-grade debt has held up better, it has done sobecause of slowing growth and more disinflationary and deflationary pressures.

　　新兴市场货币已经疲软了一段时间，今年以来已贬值逾5%。尽管新兴市场投资级债券相对而言更加坚挺，但这是因为经济增长日益放缓、通胀减速(disinflation)和通缩的压力有所增大。

　　There are structural as well as cyclical reasons to continue to be gloomy about emergingmarket prospects – particularly in Asia. At the same time, though, investors should adopt amore nuanced view. While emerging markets are not about to decouple from the rest of theworld, the divergence in performance within that overly broad category may become moredramatic.

　　我们可以找到与结构和周期相关的理由，来支持继续看淡新兴市场、尤其是亚洲新兴市场的前景。但与此同时，投资者也应更加细致地看待问题。尽管新兴市场不会与世界其余地区脱钩，但在这个覆盖范围极广的资产类别中，不同地区的表现差异或许会变得更为显著。

　　Asia in particular has to reinvent itself. Its export-led growth model is unlikely to work as wellin future as it has for the past decade. Asian exports peaked in 2011 and since thenmanufacturers’ pricing power has grown weaker. Most importantly, China is shifting to a moredomestic demand-led model. In recent years Chinese exports had big spillover effects for therest of the region via supply-chain linkages, but those are starting to dwindle, according toAndrew Tilton of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. Moreover China’s market share has stabilised,suggesting that trade gains will be more a zero-sum game.

　　亚洲尤其需要重塑自我。它的出口拉动型增长模式在未来不太可能像在过去10年里那么有效。2011年，亚洲的出口达到顶峰。自那以来，制造商的定价能力变得越来越弱。最重要的是，中国开始转向更加依赖国内需求拉动增长的模式。高盛驻香港的安德鲁•蒂尔顿(Andrew Tilton)表示，近年来，中国的出口通过供应链纽带对亚洲其余地区产生了很大的溢出效应，但这些效应已开始减弱。此外，中国的市场份额已稳定下来，这意味着对贸易收益的争夺将更多地变成一场零和游戏。

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