双语新闻:谁会点燃中国经济火药桶

2014-04-16 14:01:13来源：可可英语

　　Finally, introducing a property tax could certainly help in places like Beijing, where prices are prices are so high that only the wealthy can afford to buy. But a tax would knock down prices even further in the third- and fourth-tier cities that are already have too many apartments to sell.

　　最后，开征房产税在北京这样的大城市肯定能发挥作用，这些城市的房价极高，只有富人才买得起。但在住宅供应已经过剩的三四线城市，房产税会进一步打压房价。

　　'There are a myriad of potential triggers,' says Nomura analyst Zhiwei Zhang.

　　野村经济学家张智威说，有众多可能的触发因素。

　　Mr. Zhang says fear of reform backfiring in the property market could play out a different way too--by becoming a big obstacle to pushing through reforms already pledged by China's leaders.

　　张智威说，对改革在房地产市场产生反作用的担忧还可能产生另外的效果——成为推进中国领导人已承诺改革的一个重大障碍。

　　So what might the Chinese government do to prevent or address a property problem? One possibility, economists say, is ending certain housing purchase restrictions. In cities like Beijing or Shanghai, where there is plenty of pent-up demand, buyers need to put down as much as 60% in mortgage for a second home, for instance.

　　那么，中国政府可能会采取些什么措施来预防或应对房地产行业的问题?经济学家们说，一个可能是，结束某些购房限制。比如，在存在大量被压抑需求的北京、上海等城市，购房者贷款购买第二套住房时需要交60%的首付。

　　The government has hinted it's open to such a change. Its 2014 economic work plan says it will 'regulate housing differently in different cities in light of local conditions,' suggesting that it might lift restrictions in China's biggest cities. The government could additionally consider permitting more buildings or making financing easier, which would boost supply and eventually reduce prices. But its plan aren't clear. For example, the work plan also repeats last year's pledge to 'curb demand for housing for speculation and investment purposes.'

　　中国政府已暗示，对取消某些住房限购措施持开放态度。2014年的《政府工作报告》称，要针对不同城市的情况对住房市场进行分类调控。这是在暗示政府可能会取消一线城市的限购措施。政府可能还会考虑允许更多项目开工或者放宽融资环境，这将增加住房供应，从而最终压低房价。但政府的方案并不明确。比如，《政府工作报告》还重申了去年的承诺，也就是要抑制投机投资性住房需求。

　　And those sort of measures won't do much in places where demand is lacking. To jog housing in those areas, say economists, the government would probably need to cut interest rates to boost consumption and lending. The trouble there is that localities may interpret monetary easing as a signal to free up lending to real estate developers to build even more housing -- the very problem the government is trying to deal with now.

　　在缺乏市场需求的地区，这些措施不会起到多大作用。经济学家说，要提振这些地区的房地产市场，政府可能需要通过下调利率来促进消费和借贷。但问题是，地方政府可能会将货币宽松措施解读为“解冻”对地产开发商信贷投放的信号，从而造成开发商修建更多住房，而这正是政府目前努力解决的问题。

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