阿里巴巴上市前夕到底该不该投资其价格不菲的股票

2014-05-08 14:10:03来源：可可英语

　　Investors who tend to care more about future profits might consider this math: Even if Alibaba's revenue grows 45% annually through 2015 and its net profit margin expands by one-fifth, Mr. Kirjner's estimated valuation would be nearly 30 times 2015 profits. By comparison, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is trading at about 14 times 2015 earnings.

　　更关注未来利润的投资者可能要做一下算术：即使一直到2015年阿里巴巴的收入都保持45%的年增长率，利润率提升五分之一，柯基纳的估值也接近2015年利润的30倍。相比之下，标准普尔500指数成份股估值与2015年预期收益之比约为14倍。

　　Many U.S. investors will wind up owning a piece of Alibaba without investing directly, through mutual funds that are likely to buy into the Chinese company. Shareholders of Yahoo Inc. already own Alibaba, because Yahoo owns 24% of the Chinese company, though that investment is set to be reduced at the IPO.

　　很多美国投资者将持有阿里巴巴股份，并不是通过直接投资，而是通过可能参股阿里巴巴的共同基金。雅虎公司(Yahoo! Inc.)的股东已然持有阿里巴巴股份，因为雅虎公司持有阿里巴巴24%的股份，不过它将在阿里巴巴IPO之际降低持股比例。

　　There are warning signs, too. Alibaba's momentum could slow as determined rivals clip at its heels. Consumer-electronics specialist JD.com Inc., China's second-largest player in online shopping, has won fans among some middle-class Chinese because it offers delivery, as Amazon does in the U.S. Alibaba is far more profitable than JD.com because it doesn't stock inventory itself and works with outside delivery services. But JD.com could pressure the company to invest more in improving customer service.

　　目前也存在一些预警信号。由于意志坚决的竞争对手紧追不舍，阿里巴巴的发展动能可能减弱。中国第二大电子商务公司、主营消费电子产品的京东(JD.com Inc.)受到一些中国中产阶级的青睐，因其配送迅速，就像美国市场的亚马逊。阿里巴巴的盈利能力远远好于京东，因为它自身没有库存，而且与外部配送服务合作。但如果京东进一步投资改善消费者服务，就可能令阿里巴巴承压。

　　A bigger competitive threat is Chinese social-networking giant Tencent Holdings Ltd., owner of the popular WeChat messaging service. Tencent is expanding its e-commerce business through WeChat and the popular online-payments platform Tenpay, which competes with Alibaba's affiliated Paypal-like service, Alipay.

　　另一个更大的威胁来自中国社交网络巨头腾讯控股有限公司(Tencent Holdings Ltd., 简称：腾讯控股)，它是十分流行的微信(WeChat)通信工具的所有者。腾讯控股正在通过微信和网上支付平台财付通(Tenpay)扩张电子商务业务，财付通与阿里巴巴的支付宝(Alipay)相互竞争。

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