中国制造业对西方冲击大互联网加剧西方社会分化

2014-06-04 15:24:13来源：可可英语

　　To get a sense of that, take a look at a report just released by the McKinsey Global Institute on economic flows in a digital age. This analysis estimates that in the past two decades the level of cross-border economic flows has risen fivefold: it was about $5tn a year in 1990, but by 2012 had risen to $26tn, or 36 per cent of global gross domestic product.

　　从某种程度上说这一结果并不让人惊讶，人们都知道，如今的世界是一个“全球化”世界。然而，人们不太了解的一点是：全球化正在发生改变。在2007年之前的10年里，跨境经济流动增长最快的部分是资金流动，信贷繁荣引发了资本流动的激增，并促使市场迅速整合。随着西方制造商将生产转移至低成本国家，可交易商品的流动也急剧增加。比如说，中国在这一过程中，占世界有形商品贸易的比重就从1990年的2%增长到2012年的12%。

　　On one level that is unsurprising; it is commonplace that we live in a “globalised” world. What is less appreciated is that globalisation has undergone a shift. In the decade before 2007, the fastest growing component of cross-border flows was money; the credit boom sparked a surge in capital flows and market integration. Flows of tradeable goods also rose sharply, as western manufacturers shifted production to low-cost countries. In the process China, for example, went from having 2 per cent of the world’s trade in tangible goods in 1990 to 12 per cent in 2012.

　　然而自2007年起，全球出现了两大突出变化。第一大变化是，由于金融危机后风声鹤唳的银行在放贷上变得更为谨慎，金融全球化进程出现了倒退。据MGI估计，跨境金融流动规模比2007年低了70%。第二大变化则是，数字通信的急剧扩张，提振了从电商到咨询等诸多其他服务的贸易。

　　Since then two striking shifts have taken place. First, financial globalisation has gone into reverse as nervous banks became more cautious in their lending after the crisis. MGI estimates that cross-border financial flows are 70 per cent lower than in 2007. Second, a dramatic expansion in digital communication has boosted trade in other services – from ecommerce to consultancy.

　　换句话说，过去跨境流动的往往是资金和低成本产品。如今，在互联网的推动下，跨国流动的则是创意和服务。MGI估计，如今这种“知识密集型流动”的价值达到了惊人的12.6万亿美元，作为参照，这个数字占到跨国流动总规模的一半，相当于美国经济规模的近五分之四。

　　Or to put it another way, whereas it used to be money and low-cost production that jumped across borders, now ideas and services are following suit courtesy of the internet. MGI estimates that these “knowledge intensive flows” are now worth a heady $12.6tn; to set this in context, this is half of all cross-border flows, and almost four-fifths the size of the US economy.

　　从某种意义上说，全球化的这种新特点看起来非常不错。它可能帮助成百万人脱贫，提高业务效率，降低消费者的消费成本，令企业家能发掘新的需求来源。而这一转变存在的问题，则正如麦肯锡以轻描淡写的语气所暗示的，是“部分工人将面临挑战”。

　　In some senses this new twist to globalisation looks wonderful. It could lift millions out of poverty, make businesses more efficient, lower costs for consumers and enable entrepreneurs to tap new sources of demand. The rub, as McKinsey suggests with vast understatement, is that “some workers will be challenged”.

　　当然，不是所有西方工作岗位都面临流失的风险。不过，随着各种工作岗位被条码和字节替代，社会分化日渐明显。在美国等国家，一方面在顶层存在高技能、高薪的所谓“高尚”职位，另一方面在底层也存在低贱、低薪的所谓“劣等”岗位，中间阶层则处于被挤压的状态。全球化的新面貌不但威胁到西方的制造业岗位，也威胁到了许多服务业岗位。

本文关键字: 中国制造业对西方冲击大