双语新闻：下轮危机将在2020年到来

2014-08-25 16:42:04来源：中新网

　　Mr Gundlach’s star status, supreme self-confidence and strong record stretching back to hiscareer in TCW, the investment management company, made him an obvious heir to the “bondking”, Bill Gross, even before the Pimco founder hit a period of poor returns and negativeheadlines this year.

　　冈拉克的明星地位、超级自信以及可追溯到他在投资管理公司TCW的出色业绩记录，使他成了“债券之王”比尔•格罗斯(Bill Gross)的显而易见的继承人，即使在太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)创始人遭遇一段糟糕回报时期、今年又成为头条负面新闻之前就是如此。

　　DoubleLine’s assets under management pale next to the $1.9tn at Pimco, and Mr Gundlach’sTotal Return Fund and his smaller but more comparable Double- Line Core Fixed Income fundadd up to $36bn versus the $223bn in Mr Gross’s flagship fund. But where Pimco called thebond market wrong at the start of the year, when the overwhelming consensus was for 10-year Treasury yields to march upwards from 3 per cent, Mr Gundlach reckoned on weakeconomic growth and weak housing and a slide in yields. Today they are below 2.5 per cent.

　　Pimco资产管理规模达1.9万亿美元，DoubleLine相对要逊色得多。冈拉克管理的总体回报基金(TotalReturn Fund)以及规模更小、但更具可比性的DoubleLine核心固定收益基金(Core Fixed Income Fund)资产总共为360亿美元，而格罗斯的旗舰基金资产规模达2230亿美元。但今年初，市场共识认为10年期美国国债收益率将从3%升高，Pimco误判了债市走势，而冈拉克则预测经济增长缓慢、住房市场疲软，以及债券收益率下滑。现在，10年期美国国债收益率低于2.5%。

　　“If you Google ‘interest rates will fall in 2014’ what pops up is a whole bunch of articles that saybond prices will fall in 2014 because yields will rise. It picks up the search in a convoluted way.There’s only a couple that actually specifically answer that request and one of them is‘Gundlach says interest rates will fall in the first half of 2014’. But I thought it was one of theeasiest calls.”

　　“如果你用谷歌(Google)搜索‘2014年利率将下降’，会搜出一大堆文章，说由于收益率上升，2014年债券价格将会下跌。谷歌以一种令人费解的方式提供搜索结果。只有两篇文章真正回应了搜索请求，其中一篇是‘冈拉克表示2014年上半年利率将会下降’。但我认为那是最容易作出的预测之一。”

　　Even after a 4 per cent print for second-quarter GDP (inflated, he says, by inventory stocking),he believes forecasters and equity investors will eventually be disabused of the idea that theUS economy is reaching “escape velocity”.

　　甚至在媒体公布第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长4%之后(他说，增加库存的行为使这个数字有所膨胀)，他认为，预测者和股票投资者最终将放弃美国经济正在接近“逃逸速度”的观点。

　　They cling to the idea, he says, “and then all of a sudden they won’t. It’s kind of like punchinga pumpkin. It’s the same thing, the same thing, the same thing and then all of a sudden it allcaves in. I would be surprised to see full-year 2014 GDP exceed 2 per cent.”

　　他说，他们仍在坚持这个观点，“接着，突然之间他们就会不再坚持了。就像是用拳头猛击南瓜。一下又一下，似乎毫无反应，然后突然间南瓜就被砸陷了。要是2014年全年GDP增长率超过2%，我会感到很吃惊。”

　　That does not mean DoubleLine is not positioning to capitalise on growth of sorts, at least inmortgages, where the government is trying to persuade private capital to fund loans withoutguarantees from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Mr Gundlach is close to signing a deal with amortgage originator that will offer loans that do not qualify for those guarantees and cantherefore be bundled into securities with a higher yield, which DoubleLine will place in itshedge fund.

　　这并不意味着DoubleLine不准备利用增长的机会，至少是在抵押贷款领域，政府正努力劝服私人资本出资支持未经房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)担保的贷款。冈拉克已接近跟一家抵押贷款发起机构签署协议，该机构将提供不满足上述担保条件、并因此可以被打包成高收益证券的贷款。DoubleLine将在其对冲基金中配置这类证券。

本文关键字: 下轮危机将在2020年到来