双语新闻：各组织应该警惕亚洲私人部门债务飙升

2014-08-25 17:09:39来源：可可英语

　　In addition, much of Asia still generates current account surpluses, which have led, in turn, tolarge foreign exchange reserves. These considerations have led many analysts to concludethat Asia is far less exposed today than it was 17 years ago.

　　此外，亚洲很多国家仍有经常账户盈余，这又导致了高额的外汇储备。考虑到这些因素，很多分析师断定，亚洲今日的风险敞口远低于17年前。

　　But the optimistic analysis focuses on the sovereign. The chances of a systemic crisis aremore remote than in 1997, but that is not to say corporate Asia is immune. Many Asiancompanies have been huge beneficiaries of the inflows set in train by the Federal Reserve’s zerointerest rate policies.

　　但是，这一乐观分析关注的是主权债务。发生一场系统性危机的可能性确实小于1997年，不过，这并不是说亚洲企业不会受到影响。美联储(Fed)零利率政策导致大量资金流入亚洲，许多亚洲企业从中受益匪浅。

　　Now, though, a benign period for Asia seems to be drawing to an end. Exports have beengrowing at a slower rate for many countries in the region. US companies are spending less notonly on plant and equipment but also on technology, which hurts a region that has thrived byproviding both corporations and consumers with their technology tools.

　　不过，亚洲的好日子如今似乎快走到头了。许多亚洲国家的出口增长一直在减速。美国企业不但在厂房与设备、而且在技术上减少开支，这对亚洲构成了伤害。亚洲通过向美国企业和消费者供应技术工具取得了蓬勃发展。

　　“Emerging Asia’s foreign liabilities are now higher as a share of exports than any time in the last10 years,” notes Jahangir Aziz, a Washington-based economist for JPMorgan, adding that as aresult there is “increased potential for currency mismatch in the private sector. Corporates aredirectly exposed to FX shocks.”

　　摩根大通(JP Morgan)驻华盛顿经济学家贾汉吉尔•阿齐兹(Jahangir Aziz)指出：“如今，亚洲新兴市场的外债与出口之比高于以往10年的任何时候。”他补充道，其结果是，“私人部门出现货币错配的可能性加大了。企业直接曝险于外汇冲击。”

　　Bond dependence

　　债券依赖

　　Moreover, while as a percentage of total borrowing, foreign borrowing is smaller than in thepast, the absolute amounts – and the dependence of some companies on the US bondmarket – is growing. Almost half the borrowers are Chinese, mostly property and industrialgroups. Another 10 per cent are Indonesian.

　　另外，尽管外债占总债务的比例低于过去，但外债的绝对额在增加，有些企业也越来越依赖美国债券市场。近半数借款者是中国企业，主要是房地产和工业集团。另有10%的借款者为印尼企业。

　　JPMorgan’s Asian credit index, which includes both high grade and high yield debt, stands at$500bn, three times higher than in 2005.

　　摩根大通亚洲信贷指数(既包含高评级又包含高收益债券)所涵盖的债券总市值目前为5000亿美元，是2005年的3倍。

　　For the first half of this year issuance was $96bn, while for the whole of last year, $120bn wasraised. And while less than 20 per cent of that is high yield, it is worth remembering thatcritical inflection points often reflect incremental changes. If the US high yield market suffers,the Asian US dollar high yield market is likely to register the impact.

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