特斯拉是"终极动力股"吗

2014-08-26 15:59:20来源：可可英语

　　Usually sober-minded analysts, accustomed to the auto industry’s slow growth, seem to shedtheir inhibitions when it comes to Tesla. Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank has attached a $310 pricetarget on the stock. Not to be out-done, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley established a $320price target and calls Tesla it the “most important car company in the world”.

　　通常冷静的分析师们早已习惯了汽车行业的缓慢增长，但是遇到特斯拉，他们就丢掉了一贯的谨慎。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师罗德o拉切给该股设定了310美元的目标价格。无独有偶，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析师亚当o乔纳斯也将特斯拉的目标股价定为320美元，并称它是“世界上最重要的汽车公司”。

　　Fuel for this latest burst of Tesla mania came from none other than Chairman and CEO ElonMusk in comments he made during an analyst call on July 31. The big news wasn’t that Teslareported higher production for the second quarter and beat earnings estimates again.

　　在7月31日的分析师电话会议上，特斯拉的董事长兼CEO埃隆o穆斯克亲手给“特斯拉热”又添了一把柴。这次会议上爆出的“大新闻”并不是特斯拉第二季度产量再次提升并超过了收益预期。

　　Musk said he expects to be producing cars at a 100,000-a-year rate by the end of 2015.

　　而是穆斯克在会上表示，预计特斯拉到2015年底将实现10万台的年产量。

　　Selling that many cars would make Tesla larger than the U.S. arms of luxury makers like Lincolnand Porsche, both of which have more diverse product portfolios, long-established dealernetworks, and refined strategies for marketing and advertising. Half the sales would come fromthe aging Model S sedan and the other half the new Model X seven-seat crossover that goesinto production early next year.

　　如果这个目标真的能够实现，届时特斯拉的规模将超过林肯(Lincoln)和保时捷(Porsche)等豪车品牌的美国分支。这两个老字号豪车品牌都有更多样化的产品阵容、长期的经销商网络、成熟的营销和广告策略。特斯拉如果真的能卖出预期的数字，那么其销量的半数将来自现有的Model S轿车，其它一半则来自明年年初才会量产的Model X七座跨界车。

　　This is not to take anything away from Tesla, which has demonstrated that it can create andmanufacture a complex and sophisticated product with demonstrated customer appeal. Butits own internal forecasts, as well as the swelling of its share price, are based on theexpectation that the future will unspool in an orderly fashion identical to the recent past.That’s a dangerous assumption to make – for several reasons:

　　这里并不是要给特斯拉浇一瓢冷水。它已经证明自己具有生产一款复杂、先进且外观诱人的产品的能力。但无论是特斯拉自己的内部预测，还是投资人对其股票的追捧，都基于同样一个预期，那就是特斯拉未来依然会延续最近的大热势头。这是一种危险的假设，原因如下：

　　o Tesla is a car for rich people. With an average price of $85,000, it is safe to say that few Teslaowners are buying one to save money on fuel, and the car’s range limitations mean that aTesla is never the only car in an owner’s garage. At some point, these same people will stopviewing Tesla as the flavor of the month, its order backlog will shrink, and Tesla will have toscrap for sales like other manufacturers.

　　特斯拉是一款富人车。在均价85,000美元的水平线上，可以说买特斯拉的人没人会在意汽油钱。特斯拉在续航里程上的短板，也说明了它绝对不会是车主家里的唯一一辆车。如果这些人的新鲜劲儿过去了，特斯拉的订单储备就会缩水，也会像其它厂商一样需要为销量打拼。

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