特斯拉是"终极动力股"吗

2014-08-26 15:59:20来源：可可英语

　　The bigger Tesla gets, the more complex its operations become. Since it sells directly tocustomers and eschews franchised dealers, it will have to develop a network of service centersto handle repairs on the cars it sells. Its unusually generous warranty, which obligates it tobuy back used cars for 50% of their original base price after three years, could create asecond channel of used Teslas. “Tesla will be eating a lot of three-year-old cars that aren’t assexy or rare as they were a year ago,” wrote one Seeking Alpha blogger. ‘To me, it sounds likea potential mess.”

　　o 特斯拉的规模越大，运营的复杂性就越强。由于它直接销售给终端顾客，免去了特许经销商的环节，它必须开发一个自己的服务中心网络来进行售后维修保养。另外它独特慷慨的保修条款规定，车主在使用三年后，可以以原价50%的价格将车卖还给特斯拉。这种做法可能会催生一个二手特斯拉的专门渠道。“寻找阿尔法”上的一位博主写道：“等到车主觉得他们的车不像一年前那么诱人和罕见，特斯拉可能会吃进大量有三年车龄的二手车。在我看来，这是个潜在的麻烦。”

　　o Battery power may turn out to be a transition technology. Cost reductions have been slow incoming, and Tesla needs a 30% improvement in order to build the $35,000 Model 3 it haspromised for 2017. Toyota’s recent move was eye-opening. It is allowing a battery-supply dealwith Tesla to expire and instead will redouble its work on hydrogen fuel cells. The cost of fuelcells is coming down faster than batteries and fuel cell proponents believe drivers will prefer arelatively rapid refuel with hydrogen to waiting hours to recharge their batteries.

　　电池电力可能最终被证明是一种过渡性技术。最近电池成本的降低速度已经放慢了，特斯拉曾经承诺要在2017年生产出价格在35,000美元左右的Model 3。要实现这个目标，特斯拉的电池成本需要下降30%。相比之下，丰田(Toyota)最近的举动非常出人意料。它与特斯拉签订的电池供应协议即将期满，但丰田并未续约，而是准备加倍投入研发氢燃料电池。燃料电池的成本下降速度要快于普通电池。而且燃料电池的拥趸们认为，车主肯定会更喜欢充电速度相对更快的燃料电池，而不是要为充电等上好几个小时。

　　o Outside events can intrude.Consumer Reports, which raved about the Model S, reported afew “quirks” recently that included door handles that failed to activate and a center touchscreen that went blank, blocking access to most of the car’s functions. Edmunds.com has hadtrouble with its Model S too. More reports like that will dent Tesla’s heretofore shiningreputation.

　　外部事件的影响。《消费者报告》(Consumer Reports)杂志曾经对Model S大加吹捧，但最近该杂志也报道了它的一些常见故障，包括门把手失效，中控触屏白屏，导致车内大部分功能不能使用等等。汽车网站Edmunds.com也找了Model S的麻烦。更多此类报告无疑会影响特斯拉到目前为止非常正面的声誉。

　　None of these potential clouds appear to darken the sunny view from Tesla headquarters inPalo Alto. Tesla is sticking with its middle term goal of building 500,000 cars a year by 2020.Much will depend on the ability of the Model X to maintain the current momentum – andmystique. Tesla has steeply ramped up spending on capital expenditures and R&D to makesure the launch, already a year behind schedule, is a success.

　　不过目前来看，这些潜在的乌云似乎都没有遮住特斯拉在帕洛阿尔托总部的阳光。特斯拉仍然坚持在2020年之前年产50万辆汽车的中期目标。这在很大程度上要取决于Model X是否有能力维持当前的势头。特斯拉已经大大提高了资本和研发支出，以确保Model X的顺利发布(虽然已经推迟了一年)。

　　Morgan Stanley’s Jonas believes the Model X will sell more based on features like its upgradedinfotainment system unique “falcon-wing” back-seat doors than fuel economy and he will bedisappointed if the Model X doesn’t win every major car of the year award. He isn’t alone. Sowill Elon Musk and a whole lot of Tesla investors who pray that the momentum behind thisamazing stock keeps building.

　　摩根士丹利的分析师乔纳斯认为，Model X的销量将会更加可观，但不是由于它的燃油经济性，而是它升级后的信息娱乐系统，以及独特的“鹰翼”式后车门。他还表示，如果Model X没有赢得所有的年度车型大奖，他会非常失望。他并不是唯一一个这样想的人。埃隆o穆斯克和其他很多祈祷特斯拉继续保持当前势头的人当然也会这样想。

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