双语新闻：美国仍存在赤字问题

2014-09-11 14:38:09来源：可可英语

　　Now, however, the debt-to-GDP ratio is not projected to fall. It is projected to creep upslowly over the next decade and then more rapidly in the future. It used to be the case thatpeople worried about whether the debt would increase to high levels – like 74% of GDP. Now,we have arrived there. Before the Great Recession, even with the major tax cuts, newentitlements, increased domestic spending and the expanded military operations of the Bushadministration, the debt-to-GDP ratio was just half as big as it is now.

　　但是，政府债务占GDP比率预期不会下降。今后十年内，这个数字预计将缓慢上升，随后还将迅速增长。以前，人们担心政府债务将达到很高的水平，比方占GDP的74%。而现在，这已经成为现实。在“经济大衰退(Great Recession)”之前，就算布什政府大幅度减税，增加社会福利，提高国内支出并扩大军事行动规模，那时的政府债务占GDP比率也只有现在的一半。

　　It is interesting that many people who thought former U.S. president George W. Bush’sagenda was unaffordable back when the debt-to-GDP ratio was half as big as it is now feel thata ratio of 74% is nothing to worry about as debt is predicted to rise further.

　　有意思的是，在当时的情况下，许多人都认为美国负担不了乔治oWo布什总统的开支计划。如今，在政府债务占GDP比率达到74%，并且预期还将进一步增长之际，这些人却觉得没什么可担心的。

　　But higher deficits, as the CBO reminds us, will crowd out investment, reduce economic growthand reduce the increase in living standards for the population as a whole. More generally, ifsustaining a high debt-to-GDP ratio were politically and economically costless, one would haveseen many more countries, before the Great Recession, in high net debt territory. After all,countries could spend more and cut taxes with impunity if the debt-to-GDP ratio didn’t matter.In fact, very few were above 70 percent. It is not a good place to be historically norcomparatively.

　　然而，就像国会预算办公室所提醒的那样，赤字增多会挤占投资空间，降低经济增长率，降低美国民众生活水平的提升速度。更广义地讲，如果居高不下的政府债务占GDP比率不产生任何政治和经济成本，许许多多国家就会在“经济大衰退”之前出现高额净负债。毕竟，如果政府债务占GDP比率无关痛痒，许多国家就可以毫无顾忌地增加开支并减税。而实际上，政府债务占GDP比率超过70%的国家少之又少。无论是以往，还是和别的国家相比，如此高的政府债务都不是好现象。

　　Second, the current projections of the deficit could prompt unwarranted complacencybecause they reflect both an improving economy and underlying spending and revenuetrends. The figure below shows the CBO’s baseline projection that deficits are basically flat atjust under 3% of GDP over the next five years, then rise slightly.

　　其次，目前预测的赤字水平可能会让人们无端地产生自满情绪，原因是这样的预期既暗含了经济好转，还体现了政府支出和收入趋势的改善。从下图可以看出，在国会预算办公室预测的基准情景中，今后5年内，政府赤字占GDP的比率基本上都将保持在3%以下，随后略有上升。

本文关键字: 双语新闻美国仍存在赤字问题