德国经济基础虽然强劲但仍难逃困境

2014-09-15 12:05:42来源：可可英语

　　Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism at work, but with eurosinstead of gold, ” says Michael Burda, an economist at Berlin's Humboldt University. By this hemeans the process first described by David Hume in the 18th century, under which countries onthe gold standard adjusted to imbalances not by letting currencies appreciate or depreciatebut through rising or falling prices and wages. In effect, Mr Burda says, the euro zone hasimposed a gold standard on its 18 members. Prices and wages are falling in several crisiscountries. Germany could help by letting its wages rise—if it is willing to accommodate this. Ifnot, there is a serious risk that deflation could take hold across the euro zone as a whole.

　　柏林洪堡大学的经济学者迈克尔·布达说德国提高薪金水平代表“休谟自然体制运转的，是欧元不是黄金”。他的意思是，在休谟体制—由大卫·休谟在18世纪首次提出—下运转的金本位国家调整经济失衡应该通过提高物价和薪酬，而不是货币的升值或贬值。布达先生也表示，欧元区正在向它的18个成员国强加金本体制。物价和薪酬在一些高危国家有所下降。德国可以通过提高薪酬来帮助他们—如果他们愿意接受这个提案;否则，通货紧缩带来的一系列危机将笼罩整个欧元区。

　　German firms certainly have plenty of leeway, after practising wage restraint for the pastdecade. Known as the sick man of Europe ten years ago, Germany underwent a set ofwrenching labour-market reforms starting in 2003. Unions co-operated meekly, often acceptingwage rises below inflation and productivity growth. In effect, this was an internal devaluationthat made exports more competitive, especially in sectors such as machines and chemicals,according to Karl Brenke at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin. The forgonespending power by workers also depressed consumption. The combination led to huge tradesurpluses.

　　在过去十年实行的薪酬限制，让德国公司确信它们还有转圜的余地。正如十年前被全欧洲所知的“风险家”，德国自2003年开始经历了一系列复杂的劳动力市场改革。联盟向来是逆来顺受，经常在通货膨胀和生产率提高的情况下接受工资上涨的提议。柏林经济研究协会的卡尔·雪瑞尔克说，国内曾经发生的一场货币贬值实际上让出口变得更有竞争力。工人们丧失消费能力也使消费低迷，二者结合带来了巨大的贸易顺差。

　　Rising wages and consumption in Germany, if they are accepted, would partially reverse thistrend. That would lead to smaller trade surpluses, as both the European Union and theAmericans are demanding. The only other domestic lever is increased investment, both bythe government and by companies, an area where Germany has been stingy in recent years.But because investing requires confidence, Russia is again proving a damper.

　　德国提高薪资和消费，如果人们接受，将会在一定程度上扭转现在的颓势，此举将会减小贸易顺差，这倒是欧盟和美国都希望出现的情况。在德国政府近年来缺乏的领域由政府和公司合作，不断上升的投资成为了国内仅剩的另一个杠杆。但由于投资强调信任，俄罗斯又一次成为了反面教材。

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