全球石油需求“明显”下滑油价动荡的时代即将来临

2014-09-25 14:05:39来源：可可英语

　　Looking ahead a few years, nothing is likely to change. Global oil demand will continue to go upover the long term as the emerging economies become steadily wealthier. Supply, however,will not rise in lockstep. The IEA predicted last year that over 2012-18 the largest contributorsof new supplies to world markets, after the US and Canada, would be Iraq and Brazil. Butcompanies in Brazil are struggling with the technical challenges of its deepwater fields andpolitical interference. Iraq is in chaos. Neither country can be relied upon.

　　未来几年，一切可能都不会改变。长期而言，随着新兴市场的不断富有，全球石油需求将继续上涨。然而，供应不会随之增加。国际能源署去年预测，2012年至2018年，除美国和加拿大以外，全球市场新供应的最大贡献者将是伊拉克和巴西。但巴西企业正艰难应对深水油田的技术挑战和政治干预。伊拉克仍身陷混乱。这两个国家都没法依赖。

　　Mr Hayward is right to worry about security of supply. Fortunately, however, the developedworld need not panic quite yet. The new sanctions on Russia will take time to bite. They do notyank existing barrels off the market. Rather, they make it harder for Russia to develop shale orpush out the frontiers of exploration into the Arctic – activity that will only drive productionsome years in the future. The risk that Mr Hayward identifies is more akin to a slow-movingratchet than a 1973-style sudden price spike. The west has time to plot its response.

　　唐熙华对供应安全的担忧是正确的。然而，幸运的是，发达国家现在还不需要那么恐慌。针对俄罗斯的新制裁将需要时间产生影响。这些制裁不会将现有的石油从市场撤走，而是将令俄罗斯更难开发页岩资源，或者将勘探前沿推进至北极地区，而俄罗斯页岩开发和北极勘探都只是提升未来石油产量的活动。唐熙华眼中的风险更类似于一种缓慢的恶化，而非1973年那种突然的价格飙升。西方有时间计划其应对措施。

　　For consuming countries, that means doing what they can to strengthen their own productionand infrastructure. The US, for example, should approve the Keystone XL pipeline fromCanada, and help its oil industry by allowing exports of crude. Governments must ensure theydo not throttle their industries with excessive taxation.

　　对于石油消费国而言，这意味着尽其所能增强本国的产量和基础设施。例如，美国应批准加拿大Keystone XL石油管道的建设，并允许原油出口，助力其石油业。政府必须确保他们不会通过过高的税收遏制本国石油行业。

　　Abroad, the US should do more to help the development of alternative sources of supply –including the shale reserves of countries such as China and Argentina. Diplomatically, theanswer is clearly not to appease Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, and thus leave his conduct inUkraine unchallenged. But Washington and its allies should try harder to stabilise failingproducing states, such as Libya and Iraq.

　　在海外，美国应采取更多措施帮助开发替代供应来源，包括中国和阿根廷等国的页岩储备。从外交上来说，安抚俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)，对其在乌克兰的行为睁一眼闭一眼，显然不是正确的做法。但美国及其盟友应更努力地稳定利比亚和伊拉克等产量正在衰退的产油国。

本文关键字: 油价动荡的时代即将来临