双语新闻：中国面临"资产负债表衰退"风险

2014-09-25 16:06:26来源：可可英语

　　That raises the spectre that China may slip into a so-called “balance-sheet recession”, the kindof economic slump in which monetary policy loses its effectiveness because highly indebtedcompanies concentrate on paying down debt and remain unwilling to borrow even wheninterest rates fall. Weak demand for goods amid a slowing economy further depresses appetitefor investment.

　　这引发了中国可能陷入所谓“资产负债表衰退”的可怕前景，在这种经济低迷情形中，货币政策失去有效性，因为债台高筑的企业专注于偿还债务，即使利率下降也仍不愿借款。经济放缓之际商品需求疲软，进一步抑制了投资意愿。

　　“Anyone who runs a company with high leverage is very sensitive to the prospects for finaldemand,” said Richard Koo, the Nomura economist who pioneered the concept of a balance-sheet recession in his analysis of Japan’s post-bubble stagnation in the 1990s.

　　“任何在高杠杆下经营公司的人，都对最终需求的前景非常敏感，”野村(Nomura)经济学家辜朝明(RichardKoo)表示。他在分析日本在20世纪90年代泡沫破灭后陷入的停滞时，率先提出了资产负债表衰退的概念。

　　He has applied the same analysis to the post-crisis economies of the US, EU and UK, wherehuge expansions of the base money by central banks have largely failed to spur bank lendingto the real economy. “If everyone is happy and spending big, then leverage isn’t a big issue,”said Mr Koo. “That was the way Japanese companies operated until the end of the 1980s. Butonce things reverse, they have to be super cautious. At least some Chinese companies arenow acting the same way.”

　　他对美国、欧盟和英国在危机后的经济进行了相同的分析，在这些经济体，央行巨幅扩大货币基础之举，基本上未能刺激银行向实体经济放贷。“如果大家都情绪良好、大笔支出，那么杠杆不是一个大问题，”辜朝明表示，“日本企业在20世纪80年代末之前就是这样运作的。但一旦形势扭转，它们就得超级谨慎。至少部分中国企业如今也呈现出这种行为方式。”

　　Indeed, a central bank survey released on Friday showed that bankers saw declining demandfor loans in the third quarter, while a separate survey showed that manufacturers areincreasingly pessimistic about the economy.

　　的确，上周五公布的一项央行调查显示，银行家们看到第三季度贷款需求下降，而另一项调查显示，制造商对经济越来越悲观。

　　The survey results help to explain data released earlier this month showing that bank loansoutstanding rose by only 13.3 per cent year on year in August, the weakest pace since 2005.

　　这些调查结果有助于解释本月早些时候发布的数据，那些数据显示8月份未偿还银行贷款同比仅增长13.3%，这是2005年以来最疲弱的增幅。

　　Analysts still believe the Chinese government could spur credit and investment growth withaggressive monetary easing, including a rate cut and so-called “window guidance” fromregulators instructing banks to boost lending.

　　分析师们仍相信中国政府可能出台激进的货币宽松政策以刺激信贷和投资增长，包括降息和监管机构指示银行增加放贷的所谓“窗口指导”。

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