双语新闻：中国面临"资产负债表衰退"风险

2014-09-25 16:06:26来源：可可英语

　　But bankers say good lending opportunities are scarce, even as regulators have relaxed theenforcement of rules like the maximum 75 per cent loan-to-deposit ratio, which has longserved as a big constraint on bank lending.

　　但银行家们表示，好的放贷机会很少，尽管监管机构已放宽了规则的执行，如75%的贷存比上限——这个上限长期以来是银行放贷的一大制约因素。

　　“The LDR has been relaxed, and liquidity has increased, but it’s still hard to place loans.When the [stimulus] news broke, banks all rushed to buy bonds. The money hasn’t flowed intothe real economy,” said an executive at a midsize commercial bank in Shanghai.

　　“贷存比已经放松，流动性有所提高，但仍然很难发放贷款。(刺激)消息传出后，银行都争相购买债券。这些钱并没有流入实体经济，”上海一家中型商业银行的一位高管表示。

　　Rising debt is at least partly to blame. The massive stimulus Beijing launched in response tothe financial crisis sent its overall debt-to-GDP ratio soaring to 251 per cent by the end ofJune, from 147 per cent at the end of 2008, according to Standard Chartered estimates.

　　不断增加的债务至少是部分原因。根据渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的估算，北京方面为应对金融危机而出台的大规模刺激，使中国总体债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比从2008年底的147%，增至今年6月底的251%。

　　Mr Koo and others say a fully-fledged balance-sheet recession would require a much steeper fallin Chinese asset prices.

　　辜朝明等人表示，全面爆发资产负债表衰退的一个前提是，中国出现更剧烈的资产价格下跌。

　　Property prices have fallen for four straight months, but the magnitude of the fall is still farbelow the catastrophic collapses seen in Japan in 1990 or the US in 2008. The theory of abalance-sheet recession implies that when impaired corporate balance sheets weaken theprivate sector’s appetite for borrowing and investment, the government must fill the gap withfiscal spending.

　　房产价格已连续四个月下跌，但跌幅仍远低于日本在1990年——或美国在2008年——出现的灾难性崩盘。资产负债表衰退理论意味着，当受损的企业资产负债表减弱私营部门的借款和投资意愿时，政府必须以财政支出来填补这一缺口。

　　China dabbled with this approach earlier this year, as the fiscal deficit briefly spiked amidincreased spending on rail and other areas. But if private spending weakens further, Chinesepolicy makers may be forced to overcome their traditional aversion to big fiscal deficits andadopt more muscular stimulus.

　　中国今年早些时候尝试过这种做法：铁路等领域的支出增加，财政赤字短暂飙升。但如果私营部门的支出进一步减弱，中国的政策制定者可能不得不克服历来对庞大财政赤字抱有的反感，出台更大力度的刺激。

　　George Magnus, senior economic adviser for UBS, argues China should welcome the fall inborrowing and accept the growth slowdown as the inevitable cost of preventing a fully-fledgedbalance-sheet recession down the road.

　　瑞银(UBS)高级经济顾问乔治•马格努斯(George Magnus)主张，中国应该欢迎借贷下降，并接受增长放缓，视其为防止未来爆发一场全面资产负债表衰退的必然代价。

本文关键字: 中国面临"资产负债表衰退"风险