需要警惕新兴市场公司债券风险

2014-10-08 17:20:45来源：可可英语

　　This creates a risk: when western rates rise, some of those investment flows into emergingmarkets could go into reverse, creating unexpected chain reactions. Indeed, a small versionoccurred last year, when markets swung wildly on speculation that the Fed was about to“taper” its super-loose monetary policy.

　　这就形成了一种风险：当西方利率升高时，这些流入新兴市场的投资中的一部分可能会回流，带来意想不到的连锁反应。实际上，这一剧情已在去年小规模上演——当人们猜测美联储即将“缩减”其超宽松的货币政策时，市场发生剧烈波动。

　　One point of concern is that these flows are obscured by data fog. If you look at nationalstatistics for debt issuance, they suggest emerging market companies issued $152bn of newdebt last year, creating a total of $650bn in outstanding bonds. However, if you look atreports from companies in China, Russia and India, they imply that outstanding bonds are$1.2tn, with $265bn in bond sales last year.

　　引起担忧的一点是，这种资金流动被数据迷雾所遮蔽。如果你查看各国的发债统计数据，会发现新兴市场公司去年新发债1520亿美元，使未偿债券总额达到6500亿美元。然而，如果你阅览中国、俄罗斯和印度公司的报告，会发现它们的未偿债券总额达1.2万亿美元，去年发债2650亿美元。

　　The reason for this dramatic difference is that many companies have sold debt throughoffshore vehicles, which are hard to track. Worse still, this trend appears to have gone hand inhand with growing currency mismatches, since much of the debt has been sold to foreigninvestors in dollars – but is being serviced by revenues in domestic currencies.

　　两者差距如此大，原因在于许多公司通过难以追踪的海外工具发行了债券。但更糟糕的是，这一趋势似乎伴随着日益严重的货币错配——卖给外国投资者的债券大部分是美元债，而发行人使用以本币计价的营收偿还债务。

　　For some companies – say, big commodity groups in Russia, South Africa or Brazil – thismismatch will matter little as they have easy access to dollars. For others, a dollar swing couldpose big risks. Raghuram Rajan, India’s central bank governor, warns of currency mismatchesat many large Indian companies. The BIS fears “assets and liabilities are less likely to bematched at property developers in China or energy and utilities firms in India, which havebeen among the more active international debt issuers in recent years.”

　　对于某些公司——比如俄罗斯、南非和巴西的大型大宗商品集团——来说，这种货币错配没什么关系，因为它们很容易获得美元。但对其他国家的企业来说，美元汇率波动可能带来重大风险。印度央行行长拉吉拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)对许多印度大公司的货币错配提出了警示。国际清算银行担心，“对于中国的房地产开发商或者印度的能源和公用事业公司来说，资产与债务的匹配程度可能更低。近些年，这些公司在国际债券发行方面比较活跃。”

　　Worse, the asset management industry is highly concentrated, creating a growing tendencyfor bond investors to act as a herd. The risk, then, is that an Indian or Chinese companydefaulting on a bond could create a bigger stampede – and further chain reactions.

　　更严重的是，资产管理行业高度集中，使得债券投资者发生羊群行为的倾向越来越大。那么风险就在于，如果一家中国或印度公司的债券违约，就可能带来更大规模的“跟风潮”，以及进一步的连锁反应。

　　Such fears are not new: emerging markets have faced volatile investment flows before. Andprecisely because of this history, some officials think emerging markets companies arebecoming savvier. One cheering detail about the BIS data, for example, is that emergingmarket companies are issuing bonds of longer maturity. Another is that they seem to be usingfewer of the exotic derivatives that caused pain in 2008.

　　这种担忧不是新鲜事儿：新兴市场以前也经历过反覆无常的投资流动。恰恰因为这一历史，有些官员认为新兴市场企业正变得更加老练。比如，国际清算银行数据中令人振奋的一点是，新兴市场公司所发行债券的期限在延长。另一点是，如今它们似乎减少使用在2008年造成痛苦的复杂衍生品。

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