中国经济放缓澳洲矿业好运气到头

2014-10-08 17:25:57来源：可可英语

　　“The downturn in iron ore prices has an inevitable flow on impact on mining services,construction investment and the wider economy,” says Chris Richardson, economist atDeloitte Access Economics.

　　德勤经济(Deloitte Access Economics)经济学家克里斯•理查森(Chris Richardson)表示：“铁矿石价格下跌不可避免地影响到了矿业服务、建设投资以及更广泛的经济。”

　　The reddish brown ore – a key ingredient in steel – accounts for A$1 in every A$5 ofAustralia’s export income. Mr Richardson estimates a US$1 fall in iron ore price could causenational income to drop by A$700m and the annual tax take to be reduced by A$250m.

　　澳大利亚每5澳元的出口，就有1澳元来自铁矿石。理查森估计，铁矿石价格每下跌1美元，可能会导致澳大利亚国民收入减少7亿澳元，年度税收将减少2.5亿澳元。

　　The impact will be felt hardest in Western Australia, where the Pilbara region produces most ofthe iron ore shipped abroad and the state government assumed prices would average $122through 2014.

　　西澳大利亚地区受到的影响将最为严重，在这里，皮尔巴拉地区的铁矿石产量占澳大利亚海外输出总量的大部分，而该州政府曾认为，今年铁矿石平均价格将达到122美元。

　　Last month, Moody’s downgraded Western Australia’s credit rating to Aa1, saying it faced aA$1bn hit to its budget with iron ore prices falling below A$90.

　　上月，穆迪(Moody’s)将西澳大利亚政府债务评级下调至Aa1，表示由于铁矿石价格跌破90澳元，该地区预算将损失10亿澳元。

　　The federal budget, which is in deficit to the tune of A$49bn, could also face furtherheadwinds if commodity prices do not recover.

　　如果大宗商品价格不出现反弹，澳大利亚联邦预算可能也会受到进一步影响，目前该国联邦预算赤字高达490亿澳元。

　　This week Roubini Global Economics predicted a slowdown in China and a tough federalbudget could cut Australia’s growth to 2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2015, downfrom about 3 per cent. It says that this could prompt interest rate cuts and a 20 per cent slidein the value of the Australian dollar.

　　本周，鲁比尼全球经济研究机构(Roubini Global Economics)预测，中国经济放缓以及严峻的联邦预算，可能会令澳大利亚明年的国内生产总值(GDP)增速下滑至2%，低于目前的约3%。该机构称，这可能会促使澳大利亚降息并导致澳元币值下滑20%。

　　Most economists say such fears are overblown and point to a weakening dollar as a shockabsorber that will aid the resources companies and other industries.

　　多数经济学家表示，这些担忧有些夸张，他们认为美元走软将缓解不利影响。美元下跌将有利于资源企业和其他行业。

　　“One of the key benefits of a flexible Australian dollar exchange rate is that it assists incushioning the domestic economy from the shocks resulting from rapid shifts in externaldemand and income conditions,” says Richard Gibbs, chief economist at Macquarie.

　　麦格理(Macquarie)首席经济学家理查德•吉布斯(Richard Gibbs)表示：“灵活的澳元汇率机制的一个重要好处，就在于它有助于减弱各种冲击对澳大利亚国内经济的影响，这些冲击来自外部需求和收入情况的迅速变化。”

　　Companies that derive more than half their earnings overseas will benefit from higherearnings, while the country’s commodity exports will become more cost competitive,enabling resource companies to increase market share, he says.

　　他表示，超过半数收益来自海外的澳大利亚企业将获益，同时澳大利亚的大宗商品出口将变得更具成本效率，资源企业得以扩大市场份额。

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