能源技术革新是挽救地球的最后机会

2014-10-10 15:06:00来源：可可英语

　　The inertia of the global economy results from several powerful factors: long-terminfrastructure, vested interests (perhaps no lobby is more powerful than Big Oil), geopoliticalcompetition, short-termism and massive technological uncertainties and challenges. Theworld needs to chart a new low-carbon energy trajectory, but what will it be? Of course,different countries will make different choices and should be supported to do so.

　　全球经济的惰性源于多个强有力的因素：长期基础设施建设、既得利益者(或许没有比大型石油公司更强大的游说集团了)、地缘政治竞争、短期主义和巨大的技术不确定性和挑战。世界需要绘制新的低碳能源轨迹，但这种轨迹是什么样子?当然，不同的国家将会做出不同的选择，而且我们也应该支持他们的选择。

　　For the politicians, the issue of climate change is deeply unpleasant. It is filled withuncertainty and technical complexity; it involves time horizons far beyond election cycles;it requires patient long-term investments; and it requires new public-private institutions thatare no joy to design and implement over the din of lobbyists. And these issues involvecounterintuitive choices, such as stranding fossil fuel reserves that have been discovered butcannot safely be burned because of the need to limit carbon emissions.

　　对政客们来说，气候变化问题令人头疼。它充斥着不确定性，技术上也非常复杂;它的时间跨度远远长过选举周期;它需要耐心的长期投资;而且它需要建立新型的公私合作机制——在游说者的吵吵嚷嚷中，这种机制是很难成功设计和实施的。这些问题还涉及一些违反直觉的选择，比如停止开采已被发现、但由于需要限制碳排放而无法安全燃烧的化石燃料储藏。

　　These considerations have so far caused 22 years of inaction since the signing of the UNFramework Convention on Climate Change. So how to move forward? Here’s my take. First, weshould hold on for dear life to the globally agreed commitment to keep the rise in meantemperature below 2C. This is not meant to be a target, mind you; it is meant to be an upperlimit. By all accounts, right now we are on a 4C-6C trajectory instead.

　　基于上述问题，世界在自签署《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)以来的22年间无所作为。那么应该如何推进进展?我的建议有如下几点。首先，我们应该坚持全球达成一致的承诺，让平均气温升幅低于2摄氏度。提醒人们注意的是，这并不是目标，而是上限。人人都说，我们现在实际上已经处于气温上升4至6摄氏度的轨迹当中。

　　Second, each of the countries that is a big emitter (and many other high-income and smallermiddle-income countries) should agree to design – and present to the world – a country-specific pathway to deep decarbonisation by 2050 that is consistent with the 2C limit. Suchdeep decarbonisation pathways would provide country-level scenarios of how each of theworld’s leading economies proposes to cut emissions to 1-1.5 tons a head by 2050, implying areduction of about 90 per cent in the US, and about 80 per cent in China and Europe.

　　其次，每个温室气体排放大国(以及其他许多高收入国家和规模较小的中等收入国家)，都应该同意设计(并向世界展示)本国到2050年深度脱碳的路径规划，该规划要与气温升幅不超过2摄氏度的上限相符。此类深度脱碳规划应让我们从国家层面上看到，所有全球主要经济体计划如何到2050年将人均排放削减到1-1.5吨——这意味着美国减排约90%，中国和欧洲减排约80%。

　　Third, the world’s governments and leading businesses (especially in energy, transport,industry and construction) need to undertake a massive and co-operative programme ofresearch, development, demonstration and diffusion of low-carbon technologies. A clear,predictable carbon tax would help those technologies by giving a market-based incentive toshift from carbon; but carbon pricing is not enough to generate the rapid development anduptake of new technologies, or the network infrastructure to deploy them.

　　第三，世界各国政府和大型企业(尤其是在能源、交通、工业和建筑领域)需要大规模地开展合作项目，对低碳技术进行研发、论证和传播。明确而可预测的碳税将对放弃高碳提供市场激励，从而有助于这些技术的发展，但现在的碳价还不足以让新技术迅速发展和实施，也不足以促进用于实施这些技术的网络基础设施的发展。

本文关键字: 能源技术革新是挽救地球的最后机会