投资风险资本前景扑朔迷离

2014-10-14 11:52:31来源：可可英语

　　Most limited partners were around for the last tech cycle, and promised to never again getsucked down the same rabbit hole. Now they see a proliferation of VC firms not only raising $1billion funds, but also a shortening of the fundraising cycle (most notably Tiger Global seeking$1.5 billion just 5 months after closing its last $1.5 billion pool). So there are all sorts ofhistorical data points to support pulling back right now. But what if this is really 1997 or thefirst half of 1998, instead of 1999? What if you bail to soon, and leave millions of dollars on thetable? And what if this time really “is different,” due to both better fundamental businessmodels, a larger pool of prospective buyers and a milder economic recovery? But, wait, isn’teven considering that “this time is different” a definitive sign to hit the road?

　　大多数有限责任合伙人都经历了上一个科技周期，并且信誓旦旦地表示，再也不会陷入同样的困境。如今他们看到风险投资公司激增，不仅筹集的资金动辄超过10亿美元，融资周期也大幅缩短【最明显的是老虎环球基金(Tiger Global)，这只基金上一次募集了15亿美元之后仅仅5个月，又再次募集了15亿美元】。因此，有许多历史数据支持现在退出这一领域。但如果我们现在的情形类似于1997年或者1998年上半年，而不是1999年，情况又会如何?如果你太早离开，结果导致数以百万计的资金无所作为，怎么办?如果更好的基本商业模式、更多的潜在买家和更温和的经济复苏，意味着现在确实是一个“不同的”时代，我们又该怎么办?但是，等等，想到“现在是一个不同的时代”难道不是应该立刻退出的明确信号吗?

　　So I gave the portfolio manager my most honest response: I have no idea what he shoulddo, except perhaps to avoid anyone who answers the question with any degree of certainty.

　　所以，我给了那位投资组合经理最诚实的回答：我不知道他应该做什么，但如果有人言之凿凿地回答这个问题，绝对不能轻信。

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