“A major lesson of the last crisis is that accommodative monetary policy contributed tofinancial excesses,” said Lucas Papademos, a former vice president of the European CentralBank. “We are pursuing a similar policy for good reason. But there are limits — if you do this fortoo long, risks in the financial markets will materialize.”
“上次危机的一大教训就是,宽松的货币政策会助长金融过剩,”曾担任欧洲央行(European Central Bank,简称ECB)副行长的卢卡斯·帕帕季莫斯(Lucas Papademos)说。“我们目前有很好的理由来追求类似的政策。但凡事有极限——假如持续时间太长,金融市场的风险就会冒出来。”
Over the last week this debate has been playing out here: on panels at think tanks, in huddlesinside and outside the hulking I.M.F. building and in formal talks between government officialsand central bankers.
上周的时候,有关这一问题的辩论在华盛顿展开:不仅出现在智库的讨论会上、在恢弘的IMF大楼内外举办的会议里,还出现在各国政府官员与央行高层的正式对话中。
Mario Draghi, the president of the E.C.B., echoed these concerns on Saturday when he said thatbeyond concerns about the global economy, one of the main topics of discussion was“increasing financial risk-taking” by investors, especially nonbank institutions.
周六,ECB行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)附和了这种担忧。他表示,除了全球经济,讨论的一大主题是投资者“承担的金融风险日趋扩大”,尤其是非银行机构。
To a degree, the fund’s warning that the eurozone’s economy, and Germany’s in particular,might face a recession turned what had been an academic discussion into a major politicalissue.
在某种程度上,IMF对欧元区经济——尤其是德国经济——或许会陷入衰退的警告,将之前的学术讨论变成了一大政治议题。
The outcry for Germany, which has surpassed China as the country with the largest tradesurplus in the world, to spend more on infrastructure to revitalize its flagging economy wasloud enough. But behind closed doors there was an even harder push for more immediateaction: a purchase by the European Central Bank of Italian, Spanish and Greek governmentbonds, in large quantities.
德国已超越中国成为全球第一大贸易顺差国。呼吁德国加大基础设施投资以重振其放缓的经济的声音颇为响亮。不过,在紧闭的大门背后,有更大的推动力要求尽快行动:欧洲央行应买入意大利、西班牙和希腊的国债,而且是大量买入。
While the bank has presented a plan to purchase securitized corporate bonds, many nowthink that not enough of these securities exist for the plan to make a difference.
尽管ECB提交了一份计划,准备购买证券化的企业债券,但许多人现在认为,此类证券当前的规模不足以让这一计划起到作用。
Germany, led by its hawkish central bank head, Jens Weidmann, has resisted all moves by theE.C.B. to buy government bonds in bulk.
在鹰派央行行长延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)的带领下,德国一直对ECB大量买入成员国国债的任何举措予以抵制。
One senior E.C.B. official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that within the body’sgoverning council, Germany is facing increased pressure to relax its opposition to suchmeasures, especially as worries about growth and deflation increase.
一名无权公开置评的ECB高级官员称,在该行的管理委员会上,德国面临着放松其反对立场的越来越大的压力,尤其是在有关经济增长与通货膨胀的担忧正在加深的情况下。
“I think you will see this happen in less than a year,” the person said.
“我想这件事一年内会实现,”此人表示。
Such a step, of course, would create even more of a global buying frenzy for eurozonegovernment bonds, and earlier in the week Christine Lagarde, the chief of the I.M.F., warnedthat the strong performance of these instruments was not supported by the underlyingeconomies in their countries.
当然,这样的举措将导致全球买家更为疯狂地购入欧元区国家的国债。而且,本周早些时候,IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告,此类工具的强劲表现没有得到这些国家经济面的支持。
In effect, bond market investors are slamming down on the gas pedal while banks, burdenedby persistent regulatory demands, still have their foot on the brake.
实际上,尽管债市投资者在猛踩油门,但受困于严苛监管要求的银行,仍然在踩刹车。
本文关键字: IMF提醒注意中国债务及全球金融风险
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