“How am I supposed to lend any money if I have to go through a stress test every sixmonths?” said the chairman of a large European bank who spoke on the condition ofanonymity because he did not want to offend his new regulator, the E.C.B.
“每六个月就得来一次压力测试,我怎么可能去放贷?”欧洲一家大型银行的董事长说。由于不希望惹恼自己的新监管机构ECB,他要求不具名。
Last week, the I.M.F. said that in Europe, 70 percent of the large banks it monitored were notin a position to support an economic recovery via increased lending.
上周,IMF表示,该机构监测的欧洲大型银行中,70%无法通过放贷来支撑经济复苏。
“What we see is extraordinary risk-taking in the financial markets while in the real economyrisk-taking has taken a holiday,” said Claudio Borio, a senior economist at the Bank forInternational Settlements, a clearinghouse for global central banks.
“我们看到的是,金融市场中的很多业务承载着巨大风险,而实体经济在承担风险的事情上打着瞌睡,”国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的高级经济师克劳迪奥·博里奥(Claudio Borio)说。这家银行是全球央行的结算行。
Mr. Draghi, at his news conference, said he did not see signs of a government-bond bubblein the eurozone, although he did note that the matter demanded close attention.
德拉吉在新闻发布会上表示,他并未看到欧元区存在国债泡沫的迹象,不过他明确指出,需要密切关注这一问题。
In particular, bankers and debt experts pointed to the tremendous buildup in corporate andprivate-sector debt in emerging markets that has resulted from the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program.
尤其是,银行业高层和债务专家指出,由于美联储(Federal Reserve)的债券购买计划,新兴市场上累积了巨额的企业与私营部门债务。
“Overall debt has continued to grow quite dramatically — China’s has grown by $15 trillion inthe past six years,” said Susan Lund, an analyst at McKinsey, the consulting firm. “That is avery large number.”
“整体债务规模持续飙升——在过去六年里,中国的债务增加了15万亿美元(约合92万亿元人民币),”咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)的分析师苏珊·伦德(Susan Lund)说。“这是个很大的数字。”
In the financial stability report it released last week, the I.M.F. pointed out that assetmanagement firms have increased their purchases of bonds from emerging markets to close to$2 trillion today from $265 billion in early 2000.
在上周发布的《全球金融稳定报告》中,IMF指出,资产管理公司增加了从新兴市场上买入债券的规模,由2000年初的2650亿美元增至目前的近2万亿美元。
The pace of this buildup has increased over the last few years, and regulators worry that wheninterest rates in the United States rise, investors — especially on the retail side — will pull theirmoney out.
过去几年间,这种累积的步伐不断加快,而监管部门担心,当美国加息的时候,投资者将纷纷抽离资金,尤其是散户投资者。
At that point, experts believe, the funds would have a hard time selling those securities,which tend to not attract large numbers of buyers and sellers.
专家认为,到了那个时候,各大基金将难以将这些证券脱手,因为它们不大能吸引大量的买家和卖家。
“We do worry that if a lot of this money heads for the exit at the same time you could see amajor fire sale,” said Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank ofEngland.
“我们的确担心,如果其中的大笔资金要同时退出,就会出现减价大甩卖,”英格兰银行(Bank of England)负责金融稳定的副行长乔恩·坎利夫(Jon Cunliffe)说。
For some observers, though, the debate about asset bubbles and what central banks should doabout them misses a crucial point. An increase in interest rates by the Fed, assuming ithappened because the American economy was in full recovery mode, would be a positive sign,they say — not just for the United States but also for global financial markets in general.
不过,在一些观察人士看来,关于资产泡沫及各国央行应如何加以应对的讨论,其实是不得要领。他们宣称,美联储加息的话——由于美国经济正在全面复苏,可以这样设想——将是一个积极的信号,不仅对美国如此,对全球金融市场总体而言也如此。
本文关键字: IMF提醒注意中国债务及全球金融风险
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